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5/10 -someone is getting value towned, I'm just not sure who

  
 
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griffey24
Old 12-01-2008, 08:04 PM     Post subject: 5/10 -someone is getting value towned, I'm just not sure who #1 (permalink)  
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 -not really sure how to describe villain, he runs 21/13/2.5 and he does some weird plays sometimes
-we've had a couple hands so far today, one where I donk lead 3 steets with 77 on a 68TJQ board and he called down T9 so he may think I'm bluffy potentially
-is this river too thin?


$5/$10 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($281.00)
UTG+1 ($1839.50)
CO ($1179.00)
Hero (BTN) ($1415.50)
SB ($1545.50)
BB ($955.00)

Pre-flop: ($15, 6 players) Hero is BTN
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $40, 1 fold, Hero calls $40, SB calls $35, 1 fold

Flop: ($130, 3 players)
SB bets $90, UTG+1 calls $90, Hero calls $90

Turn: ($400, 3 players)
SB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $285, SB folds, UTG+1 calls $285

River: ($970, 2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $425
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cremson687
Old 12-01-2008, 08:17 PM #2 (permalink)  

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Wow that is a very confusing hand I would assume you are good a 4x raise UTG+1 you have to give him credit for either a medium pair or over cards.
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Numbr2intheWorld
Old 12-01-2008, 09:49 PM #3 (permalink)  
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 I think i bet the river harder
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zook
Old 12-01-2008, 09:59 PM #4 (permalink)  
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def not too thin but I think you have to fold to a c/shove
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Alexos
Old 12-01-2008, 10:09 PM #5 (permalink)  
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 id bet vs a TAG.. important to note though vs this kind of passive villains I would not bet here, my cutoff would prolly be like A7 vs this guy

i mean i see him having a flush sooo often here, or shit like 7x better kicker.. plus he's not calling river bets with high pairs, cuz what can u have?

if i do bet though, i make it like 1/3-1/2pot
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Toadstool
Old 12-02-2008, 01:51 AM #6 (permalink)  
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 If you do have him beat and he has some sort of big pair w/ a spade type hand, he is probably good enough to know you aren't value betting worse there so his hand is pretty much a bluff catcher.

From the hand I really don't feel like he has you beat, and your range is so strong here if you bet the river that, that I don't think he is ever going to C/Shove as a bluff....

I'd just bet an amount that makes him think there are more bluffs in your range, I guess it's feasible that you could have 55/66 and just be trying to get him off a big pair.....

So I'd bet closer to pot, but a lot of it depends on more factors than you can give here. Some people will have a higher fold frequency to smaller bets because the opponent expects them to call....whereas some people have a higher fold to larger bets, simply because subconsciously they think "bigger bet, bigger hand."
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griffey24
Old 12-02-2008, 01:37 PM #7 (permalink)  
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 Good post toad. I honestly don't have anywhere near enough reads on this particular villain to know that they'd perceive a bigger bet as being more polarized and be more likely to hero call.

When in doubt I think a decent default is to just value town with a more moderate bet.

If I got c/shoved here though I'm definitely folding. Not sure what my calling range should be though. Probably most flushes, as I don't think he ever has a boat here given flop/turn action unless he rivered J's full.
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IowaSkinsFan
Old 12-02-2008, 06:15 PM #8 (permalink)  
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 This situation on the flop is so awesome for us. I'd probably call the flop here with any sort of pair or any gut shot.

Hmmm well I surely think he has AA-TT like 90% of the time. Any hand that doesn't beat those I'd turn into a bluff for sure.
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