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pocketfours
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12-07-2010, 08:09 AM
Post subject: 5/10: so he has a straight...
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#1 (permalink)
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Moderator
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Lighting sweet moneys on fire.
Posts: 2,166
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134bb deep. Villain is a nitty 19/14 TAG reg. MP is 33/19 fairly aggro fish.
My flop lead is marginal but it works well with my overall gameplan here imo. MP fish had low cbet% and I didn't want this to be checked through and I obviously can't checkraise.
Hero (BB): $1,339.50
UTG: $257.50
MP: $748.00
CO: $1,645.00
BTN: $1,000.00
SB: $1,559.00
SB posts SB $5.00, Hero posts BB $10.00
Pre Flop: ($15.00) Hero has 9 T
fold, MP raises to $30.00, fold, fold, SB calls $25.00, Hero calls $20.00
Flop: ($90.00, 3 players) 9 4 7
SB checks, Hero bets $75.00, MP calls $75.00, SB calls $75.00
Turn: ($315.00, 3 players) 8
SB bets $214.00, Hero calls $214.00, fold
River: ($743.00, 2 players) Q
SB bets $340.00, Hero raises to $1,020.50 and is all-in
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Micro2Macro
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Moderator
Join Date: Jan 2009
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Posts: 4,465
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well, I really like this. but let's see what some of the people who are good at poker think.
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sauce123
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Dizzy
Posts: 2,405
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well, based on how people play, it seems almost impossible he has a flush here unless it is like JThh or A8hh or QThh or 65hh or T6hh and even then not with a high frequency especially considering how TAG (uncreative) you think he is.
given you have a shitton of hands (like your own) which are about 5% to win against what we think his river betting range is, and you have a lot of combinations of the relative nuts, you should have a healthy bluffrange in this spot.
since 19/14 TAGs tend to fold too much when u rep the nuts and their range is defined (or too little, obv you have to decide here) i love the bluff
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I got more flava than fruitstripe gum
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IowaSkinsFan
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 7,148
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I think this is a spot where people should fold but tend not to. I think it's a decent bluff but probably not a profitable one.
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Numbr2intheWorld
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Moderator
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 3,561
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Quote:
Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan
I think this is a spot where people should fold but tend not to. I think it's a decent bluff but probably not a profitable one.
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I think you'd be surprised how amazingly capable of folding ring cash players have become.
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Numbr2intheWorld
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Moderator
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 3,561
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absolutely love this bluff
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Alexos
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Montreal
Posts: 2,766
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So we're expecting a TAG to have a wide value betting range here that includes many non-flush hands, on this river?
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pocketfours
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Moderator
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Lighting sweet moneys on fire.
Posts: 2,166
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Alexos
So we're expecting a TAG to have a wide value betting range here that includes many non-flush hands, on this river?
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Probably not wide, but how about five combos of 88, JTcc/dd. Can you find five combos of flushes that he plays like this?
Also consider that my 3bet is above 10%. I highly doubt he is going to flat something like 56hh oop and create a good squeeze spot for me, most definitely not T6hh and very likely not suited rag aces even.
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nutsinho
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: flattin ur 4bets, makin u tilt
Posts: 3,280
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pocketfours
Probably not wide, but how about five combos of 88, JTcc/dd. Can you find five combos of flushes that he plays like this?
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id probably count 88/JTcc/JTdd as 1 combo of likely hands here. slightly more likely to have a flush. but also seems possible to have some random donked up hand given how unlikely he is to take this line w anything
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My bankroll is the amount of money I would spend or lose before I got a job. It is calculated by adding my net worth to whatever I can borrow.
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pocketfours
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Moderator
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Lighting sweet moneys on fire.
Posts: 2,166
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Quote:
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id probably count 88/JTcc/JTdd as 1 combo of likely hands here. slightly more likely to have a flush. but also seems possible to have some random donked up hand given how unlikely he is to take this line w anything
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I fail to put him on any random donked up hand without his flop play being complete spew (yeah same goes for 88). Maybe 99 with heavy discount in there as well.
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IowaSkinsFan
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 7,148
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I think c/c is better on the flop as well. Really hate bloating pots with marginal hands in general. You are going to fold the best hand much more taking this line rather than c/cing a flop cbet, and a checked through flop can give you better value opportunities on the turn or river.
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pocketfours
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Moderator
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Lighting sweet moneys on fire.
Posts: 2,166
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Quote:
Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan
I think c/c is better on the flop as well. Really hate bloating pots with marginal hands in general. You are going to fold the best hand much more taking this line rather than c/cing a flop cbet, and a checked through flop can give you better value opportunities on the turn or river.
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I felt like this fish was the type to always fire at least two when he bets the flop. I also didn't think he would bet some random garbage here because his cbet% was pretty low.
When I c/c my range will be pretty well defined and villain's range won't be so I think I'd rather just c/f. I guess I could go c/c + c/rai blanks, but I didn't think this was the best opponent to do it against because of a high chance that he checks back his draws.
Anyone else in the c/c camp?
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The Edlets
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 84
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What do you do if the Qh doesn t hit the river? Maybe its hard to say as he may bet a different ammountor not bet at all. If the 4c hits the river and he bets the same ammount Id be interested as to what you do 
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ATOTHEC101
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Full House
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 1,248
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Like the flop lead and the river jam due to how few flush combos he can have and the fact players like the one you described love to fold.
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alexandertiny
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High Card
Join Date: Feb 2012
Posts: 11
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Since you're read tells you that he would likely check his flushdraw I think this is a strong play, marginal plays like this will be the difference between a winning player and breakeven/losing player, I call it marginal because bluffing against a fish could be a bad decission as well.. depends on the fish
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