5/10: so he has a straight...

well, I really like this. but let's see what some of the people who are good at poker think.

well, based on how people play, it seems almost impossible he has a flush here unless it is like JThh or A8hh or QThh or 65hh or T6hh and even then not with a high frequency especially considering how TAG (uncreative) you think he is.

given you have a shitton of hands (like your own) which are about 5% to win against what we think his river betting range is, and you have a lot of combinations of the relative nuts, you should have a healthy bluffrange in this spot.

since 19/14 TAGs tend to fold too much when u rep the nuts and their range is defined (or too little, obv you have to decide here) i love the bluff

I think this is a spot where people should fold but tend not to. I think it's a decent bluff but probably not a profitable one.

Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

I think this is a spot where people should fold but tend not to. I think it's a decent bluff but probably not a profitable one.

I think you'd be surprised how amazingly capable of folding ring cash players have become.

absolutely love this bluff

So we're expecting a TAG to have a wide value betting range here that includes many non-flush hands, on this river?

Originally Posted by Alexos

So we're expecting a TAG to have a wide value betting range here that includes many non-flush hands, on this river?

Probably not wide, but how about five combos of 88, JTcc/dd. Can you find five combos of flushes that he plays like this?

Also consider that my 3bet is above 10%. I highly doubt he is going to flat something like 56hh oop and create a good squeeze spot for me, most definitely not T6hh and very likely not suited rag aces even.

Originally Posted by pocketfours

Probably not wide, but how about five combos of 88, JTcc/dd. Can you find five combos of flushes that he plays like this?

id probably count 88/JTcc/JTdd as 1 combo of likely hands here. slightly more likely to have a flush. but also seems possible to have some random donked up hand given how unlikely he is to take this line w anything

Originally Posted by nutsinho

id probably count 88/JTcc/JTdd as 1 combo of likely hands here. slightly more likely to have a flush. but also seems possible to have some random donked up hand given how unlikely he is to take this line w anything

I fail to put him on any random donked up hand without his flop play being complete spew (yeah same goes for 88). Maybe 99 with heavy discount in there as well.

I think c/c is better on the flop as well. Really hate bloating pots with marginal hands in general. You are going to fold the best hand much more taking this line rather than c/cing a flop cbet, and a checked through flop can give you better value opportunities on the turn or river.

Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

I think c/c is better on the flop as well. Really hate bloating pots with marginal hands in general. You are going to fold the best hand much more taking this line rather than c/cing a flop cbet, and a checked through flop can give you better value opportunities on the turn or river.

I felt like this fish was the type to always fire at least two when he bets the flop. I also didn't think he would bet some random garbage here because his cbet% was pretty low.

When I c/c my range will be pretty well defined and villain's range won't be so I think I'd rather just c/f. I guess I could go c/c + c/rai blanks, but I didn't think this was the best opponent to do it against because of a high chance that he checks back his draws.

Anyone else in the c/c camp?

What do you do if the Qh doesn t hit the river? Maybe its hard to say as he may bet a different ammountor not bet at all. If the 4c hits the river and he bets the same ammount Id be interested as to what you do

Like the flop lead and the river jam due to how few flush combos he can have and the fact players like the one you described love to fold.

Since you're read tells you that he would likely check his flushdraw I think this is a strong play, marginal plays like this will be the difference between a winning player and breakeven/losing player, I call it marginal because bluffing against a fish could be a bad decission as well.. depends on the fish

I think you played it correctly, woulda stung if he limped in with some 56 or 610 ish, but nh sir

tis a good play. I'd have a hard time reading it agg on the flop w top pair is what it says but I'd be hard pressed to believe in the strt not the flush. So if I had it it would be called. Wonder what he had? Kinda seems like the strt or a set caught on the turn.