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ilikeaces86
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05-15-2006, 09:25 AM
Post subject: 5-10 NL FR AA
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#1 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 2,141
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Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (10 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)
MP2 ($92.50)
MP3 ($190)
CO ($2474.18)
Button ($470)
SB ($1054)
BB ($1185.50)
UTG ($935)
UTG+1 ($1123.75)
Hero ($1000)
MP1 ($620.75)
Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with A , A . SB posts a blind of $5.
UTG calls $10, 1 fold, Hero raises to $40, MP1 calls $40, 3 folds, Button calls $40, 2 folds, UTG calls $30.
Flop: ($175) T , T , K (4 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $100, MP1 folds, Button folds, UTG raises to $300, Hero calls $200.
Turn: ($775) 2 (2 players)
UTG bets $595 (All-In), Hero calls $595.
River: ($1965) 6 (2 players, 1 all-in)
Final Pot: $1965
My stats are 12/7 and he is a 23/6. I just stacked him on another table with a set when he had KK and I get the feeling that he wants to get me win a big pot off me. He is generally very solid and semi-tricky but may be a bit tilted. Thoughts?
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Lukie
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sucks giving him 30:1 on the pf call, but I can't see playing this any differently without a hell of a read.
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Pingviini
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Full House
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IMO he is playing this a bit too straight forward to put him on a T. Looks quite like QJ. On the other hand, if he is capable of any deeper thinking and isnt really tilting he must think you have at least KQ here, why is he then betting here. Anyways, I put him on QJ and call.
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"Poker is a simple math game" -Aba20
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PO$$E$$ED
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Flush
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Pingviini
IMO he is playing this a bit too straight forward to put him on a T
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uh
what is that supposed to mean
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thirteen
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Straight
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 235
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by PO$$E$$ED
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Pingviini
IMO he is playing this a bit too straight forward to put him on a T
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uh
what is that supposed to mean |
I'm not a High Stakes player, but he must mean that he's playing like he has a T because he thinks hero would expect him to not play like he has a T when he does actually have a T. So by playing like he has a T when he does actually have a T he fools everyone except the people that think he plays a T like he has a T.
Couldn't resist, sorry... 
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Rondavu
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So you're saying if he had a ten, which I'm not assuming he does, then he might not bet like he has a ten, but more like he doesn't know you don't have a ten? So assuming one ten left in the deck, and one in villains hand, villain will bet as if he done have tendity ten ten ba dum bum ching.
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It's not what's inside that counts. Have you seen what's inside?
Internal organs. And they're getting uglier by the minute.
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Rondavu
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4-of-a-Kind
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In all honesty I think villain is capable of betting a ten this way. Just my feeling.
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It's not what's inside that counts. Have you seen what's inside?
Internal organs. And they're getting uglier by the minute.
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johnny_fish
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UTG should put Hero on AK/AA/KK after the call c/r if he has any kind of read/PAHUD -> Villains range is 80% Tx, 20% QJ, given Hero's read.
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Warpe
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Rondavu
In all honesty I think villain is capable of betting a ten this way. Just my feeling.
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Play trips fast, no?
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PO$$E$$ED
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Flush
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have any of you heard of Occam's razor
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Warpe
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Moderator
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by PO$$E$$ED
have any of you heard of Occam's razor
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So you're putting villain on AK?
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dsaxton
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If two theories have equal explanatory power, you should choose the simpler. It has nothing to do with poker.
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Warpe
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Moderator
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by dsaxton
If two theories have equal explanatory power, you should choose the simpler. It has nothing to do with poker.
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I'm familiar with Occam's razor, and it can be applied to poker. What's the simplest explanation for villain's betting pattern?
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dsaxton
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Warpe
Quote:
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Originally Posted by dsaxton
If two theories have equal explanatory power, you should choose the simpler. It has nothing to do with poker.
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I'm familiar with Occam's razor, and it can be applied to poker. What's the simplest explanation for villain's betting pattern? |
It isn't the case that all explanations are equally likely to be true. That's the situation that Occam's Razor addresses. It just deals with economy of effort / thought.
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Greedo017
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Full House
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I think you played it fine, not sure if you will win but you're ahead here enough I think.
And dsaxton, i don't get what you mean about occam's razor. I think it fits in with poker fine. occam's razor is saying that the simplest complete answer is the best one. i don't understand what you mean by "equal explanatory power". Is it not equally likely in this situation that he has QJ, 67, or 23? if you say its not equally likely, its probably because you think it is a simpler explanation for him to have qj than 23.
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i betcha that i got something you ain't got, that's called courage, it don't come from no liquor bottle, it ain't scotch
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ilikeaces86
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what about the tilt factor and the fact I get the feeling he wants to win a big pot off me. We are on 8 tables together and he seemed to be calling my raises more often than usual at this given time. Does anyone think that increases his range or do u just disregard?
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johnny_fish
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by ilikeaces86
what about the tilt factor and the fact I get the feeling he wants to win a big pot off me. We are on 8 tables together and he seemed to be calling my raises more often than usual at this given time. Does anyone think that increases his range or do u just disregard?
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What do you think he thinks of your flop call?
edit: Would he limp-call AK UTG?
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bigred
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PROFESSIONAL TROLL
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by PO$$E$$ED
have any of you heard of Occam's razor
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No, I use Mach3
I think if op can put you on a hand like AA it's a lot easier for him to play a Tx very fast. Slowplaying, in this case to me, seems a little more obv of a T and will get less value from Aces. I'd put him on Tx, JQ like ping said, or a king. So I think the importance is discerning the percentages of each category he is likely to and then consider your win percentage.
The only other thing to consider is his tilt factor but I think it's a mistake to put the emphasis on tilt that you are currently using, Aces. However, it could be useful in a marginal situation like this. Maybe not with hand situations but with the op's train of thought. Fear of Aces, King, or a T may not come as quickly or importantly to op if he's on tilt so arguments for the op's strong hand may not be as strong when the tilt factor comes in.
When it comes down to it, this is one of those situations where I think you're pissed calling or folding for obvious reasons of losing the hand or fearing lost value. I'd probably call in this situation as well unless I had a huge feeling I was behind (which I can't get from his stats or his "tilt". Would have to be in ur head and playing).
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LOL OPERATIONS
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Warpe
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Moderator
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by ilikeaces86
what about the tilt factor and the fact I get the feeling he wants to win a big pot off me. We are on 8 tables together and he seemed to be calling my raises more often than usual at this given time. Does anyone think that increases his range or do u just disregard?
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If he's calling your raises more often than usual on 8 tables then, statistically speaking, his range must have increased somewhat, no?
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midas06
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Someone explain Occam's Razor for us simpletons kthx
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Greedo017
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Full House
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occam's razor isn't complicated.
Basically, if there are two answers to a question that both make sense, the simpler one is probably correct.
It is often used in evolutionary biology. For example, we have eyes. Obviously this is way simplified, but, its possible that throughout history, we evolved eyes, then lost them, then evolved them, then lost them, and then we evolved them again. There's nothing we can do to prove that wrong really. But, its also possible we just evolved them once, and that's much more likely.
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i betcha that i got something you ain't got, that's called courage, it don't come from no liquor bottle, it ain't scotch
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DaNutsInYoEye
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Greedo017
occam's razor isn't complicated.
Basically, if there are two answers to a question that both make sense, the simpler one is probably correct.
It is often used in evolutionary biology. For example, we have eyes. Obviously this is way simplified, but, its possible that throughout history, we evolved eyes, then lost them, then evolved them, then lost them, and then we evolved them again. There's nothing we can do to prove that wrong really. But, its also possible we just evolved them once, and that's much more likely.
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Basically don't make shit more complicated than it needs to be.
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TheXianti: (Triptanes) why are you not a thinking person?
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midas06
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cheers
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zenbitz
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I think Occam's razon is implicit when discussing an opponents thought process. I mean, you aren't like "Well, he could have KK here, but maybe he was watching Pam Anderson videos in another windoe and misclicked".
That being said:
villian is "generally solid". Aces is TABTA (12/7) and re-raised from mediocre position in full ring. Tilted or not, villain can beat AK here (worst of Aces' likely holdings), and if he can beat AK he can beat AA. There is some chance he is trying to make a move with QJ... but it would have to be QJ :hearts: (picked up FD on turn).
That gives villian 14 outs (in his world) - 2 for the 2 Aces/1heart that Aces has.
So, Villians range after the turn all-in (decision point) are:
TX (inc. KT/TT)
KK
AK/KQ (?!?!)
JQh
The fact that he's titling.... he makes loose calls of Aces raise pre-flop. That INCREASES the chance he has some 9To junk, but also 2 hearts.
He check/raises the flop - essentailly pot commiting himself. Would he do this with a flopped boat? Probably more likely he has JT/9T or something.
He's "maybe tilted" not drunk, right?
This is kind of leaning towards a clear fold... which makes me think it's a call so that aces can say "LOOK AT MY MIGHTY SICK CALL!"
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ilikeaces86
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by zenbitz
This is kind of leaning towards a clear fold... which makes me think it's a call so that aces can say "LOOK AT MY MIGHTY SICK CALL!"
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well obv I called Im not folding once I call the flop....
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zenbitz
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by ilikeaces86
Quote:
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Originally Posted by zenbitz
This is kind of leaning towards a clear fold... which makes me think it's a call so that aces can say "LOOK AT MY MIGHTY SICK CALL!"
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well obv I called Im not folding once I call the flop.... |
Can you fold to his c/r on the flop? I can't imagine.
So you are arr eeen no matter what. Which means, you are asking, in your own special way - is it better to re-raise the flop, or call turn?
I think you played it best here.... there are a few hands he will push turn but not call re-raise on flop with.
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mcatdog
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by zenbitz
Can you fold to his c/r on the flop? I can't imagine.
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Are you serious? Of course you can.
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Rockymv
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Full House
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Greedo017
And dsaxton, i don't get what you mean about occam's razor. I think it fits in with poker fine. occam's razor is saying that the simplest complete answer is the best one. i don't understand what you mean by "equal explanatory power". Is it not equally likely in this situation that he has QJ, 67, or 23? if you say its not equally likely, its probably because you think it is a simpler explanation for him to have qj than 23.
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by simpler, he doesn't mean easier to understand, he means fewer conceptual parts. this would be really hard to evaluate in the context of poker.
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PO$$E$$ED
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Flush
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"...remember that there really can be only three reasons - your opponent wants you to call, wants you to fold, or wants you to raise. What you need to do now is assemble a quick logic for each possible reason behind your opponents action...it (Occam's Razor) does not generate logical explanations for you - it only helps you to choose between competing decisions of roughly equal plausibility. Say that last bit again - of roughly equal plausibility. This tool, then, comes into play only when you feel that you’ve reached a bit of an impasse, when you’ve already done the work required to generate two [or more] competing explanations for the situation at hand...the razor should remind you that any explanation which requires an inordinate amount of assumptions is, on face, suspicious. Why should you be suspicious of your own logical prowess? Never forget that most poker players have to believe they can win more than their fair share of hands in order to be good players and, when you get right down to it, most of us are kinda greedy to boot. These are both forces that can skew your thought process and actually focus a large part of your mental abilities on rationalizing amazingly poor decisions, but a little poke with the razor can often help to keep them in line."
"Trimming up Your Poker Strategy with Occam's Razor"
http://www.parttimepoker.com/poker-s...al-occams.html
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gabe
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Moderator
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by ilikeaces86
Quote:
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Originally Posted by zenbitz
This is kind of leaning towards a clear fold... which makes me think it's a call so that aces can say "LOOK AT MY MIGHTY SICK CALL!"
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well obv I called Im not folding once I call the flop.... |
that reasoning is bad against players that wont bluff twice
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Bmxicle
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Full House
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open push the flop to push out drawing hands
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ilikeaces86
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4-of-a-Kind
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Bmxicle
open push the flop to push out drawing hands
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Stop being a donkey, Donkey.
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zenbitz
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by mcatdog
Quote:
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Originally Posted by zenbitz
Can you fold to his c/r on the flop? I can't imagine.
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Are you serious? Of course you can. |
Getting ~3:1 to 1 on an overpair??? Well, let me restate.
Can you fold to his c/r on the flop WITHOUT A READ? I can't imagine.
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Lukie
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by zenbitz
Quote:
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Originally Posted by mcatdog
Quote:
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Originally Posted by zenbitz
Can you fold to his c/r on the flop? I can't imagine.
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Are you serious? Of course you can. |
Getting ~3:1 to 1 on an overpair??? Well, let me restate.
Can you fold to his c/r on the flop WITHOUT A READ? I can't imagine. |
effective odds, my man
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Iwind
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I don't see what's wrong with folding turn, I would probably fold turn if I thought he was a solid player who put me on a big hand. I'd play a ten like he did, it being pretty likely someone's gonna bet with 4 people in the hand, but I'd also play QJ this way on that flop sometimes and push turn with QJ of hearts. There are more hands including a ten though, and it seems more likely to me he has a ten so I think AA is beat here unless he is very very tilted.
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mcatdog
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by zenbitz
Getting ~3:1 to 1 on an overpair??? Well, let me restate.
Can you fold to his c/r on the flop WITHOUT A READ? I can't imagine.
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So are you basically saying that there's no way to avoid getting stacked if you have an overpair against an unknown player? I strongly disagree, I think an unknown player will have the ten often enough to make calling down a losing play. Also, your 3:1 pot odds don't mean much when you'll face a turn push a high percentage of the time.
I need a read to call this down. Aces did have a read that this player was on tilt / willing to play big pots against him with marginal hands and I'm sure that factored into his decision to call.
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PO$$E$$ED
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Flush
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Either he has a ten and he's playing it accordingly, or he doesn't have a ten and he's playing it like he does (with the exception of AA, where this line would make sense). Now if he doesn't have a ten, what could he have that he would play this way?
Lets consider AK first. How likely is it for the villain (who ilikefeces describes as very solid/perhaps tilted) to limp with AK from UTG, then once the flop comes bet his hand in such a way that he's only getting called by better hands, against a nit like ilikefeces? Would someone who is on tilt from getting his kings cracked be more inclined or less inclined to raise his premium hands preflop?
KQ is even less likely than AK, as any solid player would expect to be beat once his flop CR gets called.
The only other hands he could have(aside from a pure bluff) are AA/JQ. The odds of villain firing a 2-barrel AI bluff with JQ are as negligible as the odds of villain holding the other two aces in the deck.
The last thing to consider is, how much does a "very solid" player actually tilt? Not much if you ask me, and when they do tilt they know better than to keep playing.
So with all things considered, I would try to fold to the flop re-raise (I know it's hard). If I forget to fold the flop I would fold the turn, even though I'm pot stuck.
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PO$$E$$ED
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Flush
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Occam's Razor comes into play on the turn. We are left with two explanations of roughly equal plausibility- either villain has a ten and he's playing it accordingly, or he doesn't have a ten but he's playing it like he does. "...the razor should remind you that any explanation which requires an inordinate amount of assumptions is, on face, suspicious." If it quacks like a duck it's a duck.
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