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5/10 - KK vs. fish 200bb deep - worst turn card

  
 
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zook
Old 07-10-2008, 07:31 PM     Post subject: 5/10 - KK vs. fish 200bb deep - worst turn card #1 (permalink)  
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Villain is running 44/13/1.6. Loose pre and on the flop, but folds a lot on the turn. Rarely 3bets. I've been hammering his open limps and have a pretty active image at this table. Two earlier hands...

1) He raises from CO 5-handed, I call with 99 otb. He check/calls Q65rb and 5 turn. River blank and he bets $200 into ~$450, I should but can't fold, he shows 54s for turned trips.
2) He limps utg, I raise from mp, button calls, fish calls. Eff. stacks ~180bb. Flop comes Q62tt, fish donks $105 into $140, I raise to $400 with KK, button folds, fish times down and folds. Says only two hands could beat him but he knew I had QQ. I type: "If you folded 22, wp."

After he calls my cbet I put him on 99+, weighted toward JJ+ because I doubt he would limp/rr and call my 4bet preflop with 99/TT.

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Hero (SB): $2,943
BB: $1,030
UTG: $1,207
MP: $1,057
CO: $1,000
BTN: $1,992.25

Pre-Flop: K K dealt to Hero (SB)
3 folds, BTN calls $10, Hero raises to $50, BB folds, BTN raises to $150, Hero raises to $400, BTN calls $250

Flop: ($810) 5 3 9 (2 Players)
Hero bets $500, BTN calls $500

Turn: ($1,810) Q (2 Players)
Hero...
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Fnord
Old 07-10-2008, 07:48 PM #2 (permalink)  
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I'd just go all-in, giving him credit for QQ is pretty silly. AA less so but I think you made up your mind on that pre-flop.
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griffey24
Old 07-10-2008, 08:00 PM #3 (permalink)  
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 I don't mind either a check or a shove here.

It's not like we're gonna have a hard time getting this in on the river anyhow, less than pot left behind, so checking isn't horrible if it'll induce a bluff. I mean, even if the Q is a scare card I'm still c/c here if I check.

Depends what level he's on. If he'll call you light for shoving and "repping" this Q then I'd shove.
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IowaSkinsFan
Old 07-10-2008, 11:48 PM #4 (permalink)  
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 I really hate the threebet size pre this deep. I'd make it 500 at least, specially versus a fish. Makes the rest of the hand a lot easier.

As played, I don't like a turn shove. You're likely 95% to win or 95% to lose. I like a c/f, vbet river.
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zook
Old 07-11-2008, 12:00 AM #5 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan
I really hate the threebet size pre this deep. I'd make it 500 at least, specially versus a fish. Makes the rest of the hand a lot easier.
It's a 4bet and plz to splain how having $1500 behind in a $1k pot on the flop makes this hand a lot easier to play.

Quote:
Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan
As played, I don't like a turn shove. You're likely 95% to win or 95% to lose. I like a c/f, vbet river.
Thank god someone else suggested c/f, I thought I was out of my mind. I mean, we're not getting 100bb of value from JJ here and we're behind everything else in his range.
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wufwugy
Old 07-11-2008, 01:22 AM #6 (permalink)  
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 i actually expect him to have ATC with his l/rr because he's 1) sporadic, 2) stats suggest that he doesn't understand hand strength and that the 13% pfr isnt top 13% but closer to a very skewed range, like it could easily be a variation of ATC with probably a higher probability of monsters but not necessarily. just saying that he's gonna be playing all hands differently pf, and 3) he's probably getting tired of you since you're running the table or running over him or at least trying to. its become standard for weak players to play back in weird fashions to this.

even though i expect him to have ATC or at least close to that then i still expect him to never fold to a 4bet of that size because those types by this time aren't gonna fold.

by the flop/turn, he could easily have something like K9 77 58s and not be folding imo. also he's not gonna be thinking linearly or on any understandable hierarchy. he may just whimsically put you on AK or J8s or whatever he figures you keep raising him with. its real hard to put him on a range and on what exactly will pay off.

also, lol at 4betting pf for value then considering folding postflop for 200bb on anything other than the scariest of boards. if you 4bet then be sure to make it enough that you can get it in comfortably (which actually doesnt need to be big at all here). if you cant do this then you gotta flat his 3bet. as played, the flop PSR still determines that you cant fold imo.
 
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gabe
Old 07-12-2008, 03:02 PM #7 (permalink)  
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i kinda like betting $500 again
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