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zook
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05-06-2008, 08:12 PM
Post subject: 3/6 - KJ flops top two on flush board - 180bb deep
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#1 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 3,676
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Villain is a 25/19/3. We don't have much history but he's a frequent 3bettor.
Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Holdem Ring game - Blinds: $3/$6 - 5 players - Converter
Stack sizes:
UTG: $1451.30
Hero: $1191
Button: $1046.70
SB: $1563.15
BB: $1017.85
Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is CO with K  J 
UTG folds, Hero raises to $21, Button calls, 2 folds.
Flop: J  K T ($51, 2 players)
Hero bets $45, Button raises to $150, Hero...
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pocketfours
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Moderator
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Lighting sweet moneys on fire.
Posts: 2,166
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You really manage to get yourself in tricky spots zook, but I don't think you can make a huge mistake here.
I probably think fold because there is almost no hand that you dominate (except KT, JT no diamond) and you won't like your hand unless you hit one of the four kings or jacks left. I would estimate your equity at very close to 50% here though which is why folding is a bit weak. Interested to hear other thoughts...
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Numbr2intheWorld
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Moderator
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 3,561
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i think it's a fold and agree with P4s.
Even if you boat up you probably won't stack him.
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Renton
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Atlanta, GA, USA
Posts: 5,991
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its a fold and i check flop
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gabe
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: trying to live
Posts: 7,964
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no way im folding to just one raise
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zook
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 3,676
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by gabe
no way im folding to just one raise
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me neither. what's the plan for a blank turn?
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pocketfours
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Moderator
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Lighting sweet moneys on fire.
Posts: 2,166
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by gabe
no way im folding to just one raise
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Of course not, but your turn and river skills can make a call +EV for you, even when it might be -EV for most others. This is the same thing as calling a reraise with small PP's OOP preflop: it can be a good play for you, but a loosing play for most others.
I do think this is a close one though, and if villains stats were any less optimal I would certainly feel a lot better about calling here.
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pocketfours
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Moderator
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Lighting sweet moneys on fire.
Posts: 2,166
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by zook
Quote:
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Originally Posted by gabe
no way im folding to just one raise
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me neither. what's the plan for a blank turn? |
c/r all in.
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Renton
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Atlanta, GA, USA
Posts: 5,991
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ok to rephrase, i hate betting flop in the first place if u aren't calling a raise. I think its best to polarize your betting range on this flop so you aren't exploited as much.
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gabe
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: trying to live
Posts: 7,964
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good post renton. im gonna spend some time thinking about that i think.
we can also 3 bet and fold to a shove, right?
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pocketfours
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Moderator
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Lighting sweet moneys on fire.
Posts: 2,166
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by gabe
we can also 3 bet and fold to a shove, right?
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I don't see how.
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Numbr2intheWorld
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Moderator
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 3,561
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by gabe
we can also 3 bet and fold to a shove, right?
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I don't think it makes much sense for this situation, since he's probably pushing the same range that he's betting on the turn.
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IowaSkinsFan
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 7,148
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by gabe
good post renton. im gonna spend some time thinking about that i think.
we can also 3 bet and fold to a shove, right?
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Isn't that pretty much a bluff.
I'm a nit but I'd probably fold and I think betting the flop is the best move, but checking aint bad either.
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sauce123
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Dizzy
Posts: 2,405
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id usually call and check/eval and am pretty sure thats right and checking flop is bad
this deep we quantify the "mistake" of calling (even if hes never bluffing) as pretty small, but the mistake of folding when he has a hand like KT is pretty large.
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I got more flava than fruitstripe gum
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Genitruc
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 4,463
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-what are we continuing with on this flop
-does he know this
-does he think you ever start by checking this flop
-so what does that do to his bluffing frequency
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when the vpip's are high and the value bets are like razors, who can be safe?
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Alexos
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Montreal
Posts: 2,766
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im pretty much never folding this flop but calling and re-eval...
3bet flop seems pretty bad no? he's prob shoving ROYAL gutshot FD zomg
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Nine to five is how to survive - I ain't trying to survive / I'm trying to live it to the limit and love it a lot //
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Renton
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Atlanta, GA, USA
Posts: 5,991
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by sauce123
this deep we quantify the "mistake" of calling (even if hes never bluffing) as pretty small
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if we are calling 105 to fold or incorrectly stack off on a ton of turns thats a huge mistake no?
Also KT (and other hands we dominate) are a minuscule part of his range compared to hands like AdX 9d9 etc that have excellent equity vs us, not to mention made hands that have us raped.
I think u need to be intimately aware of his range and his bluffing frequency here in order to come out ahead, and you are never gonna be aware of these things in a spot like this that doesn't come up all that often, without a ton of history.
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sauce123
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Dizzy
Posts: 2,405
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renton- we r pretty much never stacking off ui
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I got more flava than fruitstripe gum
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Renton
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Atlanta, GA, USA
Posts: 5,991
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by sauce123
renton- we r pretty much never stacking off ui
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so we are calling in good faith that villain will shut down enough on river and/or our hand will hold up enough for us to win back our 105?
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johnny_fish
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: donkaments weeeeeeeeeeee
Posts: 2,186
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Renton
Quote:
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Originally Posted by sauce123
renton- we r pretty much never stacking off ui
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so we are calling in good faith that villain will shut down enough on river and/or our hand will hold up enough for us to win back our 105? |
Villain should have a high bluff % in this spot if he's any good + respects you.
nb: Do we need to have a 3b/f range here? Let's say 380/fold..
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Genitruc
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 4,463
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by johnny_fish
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Renton
Quote:
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Originally Posted by sauce123
renton- we r pretty much never stacking off ui
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so we are calling in good faith that villain will shut down enough on river and/or our hand will hold up enough for us to win back our 105? |
Villain should have a high bluff % in this spot if he's any good + respects you.
nb: Do we need to have a 3b/f range here? Let's say 380/fold.. |
i m pretty sure hands we are 3-bet folding should be very very polarized unless we think villain will never ever semi-bluff shove with the bare Ad
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when the vpip's are high and the value bets are like razors, who can be safe?
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