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3/6 with antes, "big" draw

  
 
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Numbr2intheWorld
Old 04-15-2010, 12:37 AM     Post subject: 3/6 with antes, "big" draw #1 (permalink)  
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Sat down 1 hand ago. The two villains in the hands i'm 100% positive are regulars but i don't have many reads. I played with the button HU like a year ago and from what i remember he was kind of a nit but thought he was good if that makes sense.

I thought i'd raise the flop because i have decent FE and my hand is disguised, but i think it's debatable. And then this happens and im thinking... now what.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $6.00 BB (5 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($1595.40)
Hero (SB) ($1500)
BB ($2807.10)
UTG ($1466.20)
MP ($1377.80)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 9, 8
2 folds, Button bets $21, Hero calls $18, BB calls $15

Flop: ($69) 8, 4, K (3 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, Button bets $42, Hero raises to $132, BB raises to $387, 1 fold, Hero ????
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Alexos
Old 04-15-2010, 02:09 AM #2 (permalink)  
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id just fold
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sauce123
Old 04-15-2010, 03:35 AM #3 (permalink)  
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id probably shove ? tough spot- if his range is 44 exactly id folc
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pocketfours
Old 04-15-2010, 03:37 AM #4 (permalink)  
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I'd fold.

Edit: thought BU 3bet.
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sauce123
Old 04-15-2010, 05:45 AM #5 (permalink)  
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id probably never fold, if he has 44 i lose i guess. show me 65dd, 76dd, 75dd, bluff, ATdd, A7dd etc enough.
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sauce123
Old 04-15-2010, 05:48 AM #6 (permalink)  
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Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

13,860 games 0.077 secs 180,000 games/sec

Board: Kd 4d 8c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 52.226% 52.22% 00.01% 7237 1.50 { 9d8d }
Hand 1: 47.774% 47.76% 00.01% 6620 1.50 { 88, 44, AdTd, Ad7d, Ad6d, Ad5d, Ad4d, K8s, QdJd, 7d6d, 7d5d, 6d5d }


---
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ESS123
Old 04-15-2010, 07:29 AM #7 (permalink)  
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dno how often this is gunna be just the nut fd, think that range is a bit optimistic. I would probably just lead the flop fwiw
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Alexos
Old 04-15-2010, 02:15 PM #8 (permalink)  
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I would never expect him to have that many FDs in his range, let alone non-nut ones.
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sauce123
Old 04-15-2010, 03:52 PM #9 (permalink)  
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i put exactly one non nut FD (QJdd) then some combos of the nfd + combos of 13 out combo draws

you have to subtract a lot of hands before it becomes a fold, typically i wouldnt subtract enough at the table
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Alexos
Old 04-15-2010, 10:41 PM #10 (permalink)  
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yah upon further review it does seem like a flip vs his range if he's remotely aggro

although given he has position on us and very deep stacks, isnt there a decent chance he peels some draws instead of reppoping? idk
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pocketfours
Old 04-15-2010, 11:53 PM #11 (permalink)  
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Can't see much FE. Why do we want to flip?
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sauce123
Old 04-16-2010, 01:07 AM #12 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Alexos View Post
yah upon further review it does seem like a flip vs his range if he's remotely aggro

although given he has position on us and very deep stacks, isnt there a decent chance he peels some draws instead of reppoping? idk
alexos- theres definitely some people who are just going to have 44 all the time and against them you should fold. that might be a lot of people at 3/6 or it might not.

p4s- if you are flipping vs his range and you fold you just lit money on fire. dont light money on fire.
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pocketfours
Old 04-16-2010, 02:17 AM #13 (permalink)  
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Sigh.
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sauce123
Old 04-16-2010, 03:35 AM #14 (permalink)  
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yup.
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Ravageur
Old 04-19-2010, 04:44 AM #15 (permalink)  
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Aren't we 250 BB deep here? I think call deserves to be discussed. Sure it will put us in some tough turn spots, but I don't really like just shoving this deep (seems like ppl aren't getting it in with just bare draws here all that much this deep) but we're getting the right odds to call vs a set aren't we? Seems like every once in a while villain can have stuff like top pair that turns itself into a kind of blocker bluff (i do this sometimes) when we think we can be good but hate calling and don't want to stack off.

Anyway, I like a call and reevaluate.
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sauce123
Old 04-20-2010, 12:01 AM #16 (permalink)  
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noooo call ravageur, there are zero turn cards in the deck we can play well against
I got more flava than fruitstripe gum
 
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sauce123
Old 04-20-2010, 12:02 AM #17 (permalink)  
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which means 'reevaluate' is really bad
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nutsinho
Old 04-21-2010, 08:32 AM #18 (permalink)  
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this seems like the worst possible good hand to c/r the flop with
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Numbr2intheWorld
Old 04-22-2010, 02:15 AM #19 (permalink)  
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Why? Is it because when i hit i'm gonna be in tough spots sometimes?
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sauce123
Old 04-22-2010, 04:33 AM #20 (permalink)  
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because if he bets teh flop with T8 he's not folding, and if he bets the flop with A4dd he's not folding, but if he bets the flop in position with A4o then he can't fold because u didnt raise
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Numbr2intheWorld
Old 04-22-2010, 04:41 AM #21 (permalink)  
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so basically i totally butchered this hand haha
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pocketfours
Old 04-24-2010, 11:44 AM #22 (permalink)  
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Results?
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sauce123
Old 04-25-2010, 12:59 AM #23 (permalink)  
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max folded guaranteed
I got more flava than fruitstripe gum
 
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Numbr2intheWorld
Old 04-25-2010, 05:54 PM #24 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sauce123 View Post
max folded guaranteed
qft
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gabe
Old 04-27-2010, 12:04 AM #25 (permalink)  
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crazy fold !!
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Iwind
Old 04-30-2010, 10:52 AM #26 (permalink)  
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A fold? really, oh well guess that's why I'm not playing high stakes anymore hehe
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Numbr2intheWorld
Old 04-30-2010, 08:55 PM #27 (permalink)  
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lol wow Iwind... been a long time
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Poker Guru
Old 05-02-2010, 02:31 PM #28 (permalink)  
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Nice hand. I like more a fold, because I do not think that many of drawing hands are in villain's zone. A typical opponent is more often call with a pocket pair preflop, than with the suited hands, that sauce123 listed. Eventually he is more often 3bet pre with the suited hands.
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