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zook
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09-11-2007, 05:51 AM
Post subject: 3/6 - 77 on JJJ flop vs. decent reg
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#1 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 3,676
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BB is decent, 26/20/2.6 over a lot of hands. Notes I have on him include... doesn't 3-bet excessively, passed up on opportunity to bluff scary river with missed draw when I was going for a river c/r, prob thinks I'm spewy (pre-flop at least). Button is really bad, loose/passive pre-flop, tight/passive post-flop.
Flop ok? Plan for turn and river?
Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Holdem Ring game - Blinds: $3/$6 - 6 players - Converter
Stack sizes:
UTG: $417.50
UTG+1: $567
CO: $718.25
Button: $467.85
Hero: $1372
BB: $688.65
Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is SB with 7  7 
UTG calls, 2 folds, Button calls, Hero raises to $30, BB calls, UTG folds, Button calls.
Flop: J J  J ($96, 3 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $78, Button folds, Hero calls.
Turn: 4 ($252, 2 players)
Hero...
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sauce123
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Dizzy
Posts: 2,405
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as played i fold flop-legit
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I got more flava than fruitstripe gum
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pocketfours
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Moderator
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Lighting sweet moneys on fire.
Posts: 2,166
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Fold flop.
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IowaSkinsFan
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 7,148
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Flop opps range is Jx, 99, 88 the most so yeah fold. We'll see 66-22 sometimes, but really very little.
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zook
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 3,676
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I'm such a station.
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gabe
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: trying to live
Posts: 7,964
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id bet flop and then bet the turn and then probably bet the river
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crazycrazy
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Straight
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 240
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i bet the flop, prolly/may fold to raise. and double barrel if he calls. im ay give up on river if he calls turn. considering ur oop on turn u may want to give up right there sometimes, depends if i expect him to float my cbet or not.
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sauce123
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Dizzy
Posts: 2,405
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i bet flop also
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I got more flava than fruitstripe gum
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pocketfours
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Moderator
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Lighting sweet moneys on fire.
Posts: 2,166
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B/F flop seems better than C/C, but after thinking about it I think C/F is probably best.
Gabe please elaborate. You want rep AA/KK because you are the only one who can have that, thinking that only quads can call that line?
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gabe
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: trying to live
Posts: 7,964
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yea pretty much
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sauce123
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Dizzy
Posts: 2,405
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i like checking flop a lot better with say 99 cause its good like 90% of the time and small-med PPs will stab at flop X% of the time and be drawing to two outs. You can then bet a blank turn and rep AK or somethin and see what happens
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I got more flava than fruitstripe gum
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pocketfours
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Moderator
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Lighting sweet moneys on fire.
Posts: 2,166
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by gabe
yea pretty much
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Very nice.
Got me thinking how to estimate the likelyhood that someone has a J?
Likely preflop calling hands with a single J could be AJ/KJ/QJ/TJ/9J, which is perhaps about 20% of their calling range. With 3 blocked J's it should be about 1/4 times as likely. Then we get the probability that one of the callers has a J: P = 1-(1-5%)^2 = 9.8% (rough estimate).
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