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Wow, tough hand...

  
 
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drtofu66
Old 06-24-2006, 01:24 AM     Post subject: Wow, tough hand... #1 (permalink)  
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Pot limit, I raised max preflop. I just couldn't see any way to get away from this hand, though I had a sick feeling about it the whole way. Any major misstep? If the turn isn't a Q (or K or diamond of course) I could find it in me to muck.

UTG+1 is 62%/8%/5 over 24 hands.
UTG is 65%/41%/3.14 over 29 hands.

Poker Room skin
Pot Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.25
9 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $11.55
UTG+1: $37.65
MP1: $24.15
MP2: $3.40
MP3: $21.45
Hero: $34.75
Button: $16.25
SB: $34.65
BB: $5.00

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is CO with A Q
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, 2 folds, Hero raises to $1.75, Button folds, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: Q T J ($10.5, 6 players)
SB bets $0.5, BB folds, UTG calls, UTG+1 raises to $12.5, MP1 folds, Hero calls, SB calls, UTG calls all-in $9.3.

Turn: Q ($57.8, 3 players + 1 all-in - Main pot: $49.7, Sidepot 1: $8.1)
SB is all-in $20.4, UTG+1 raises all-in $23.4, Hero calls all-in $20.5.
Uncalled bets: $2.9 returned to UTG+1.

River: 2 ($119.2, 0 player + 4 all-in - Main pot: $49.7, Sidepot 1: $69.3, Sidepot 2: $0.2)


Results:
Final pot: $119.2
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IowaSkinsFan
Old 06-24-2006, 01:37 AM #2 (permalink)  
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 I really don't see a fold here, i don't min pushing the flop.
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bdawg56kg
Old 06-24-2006, 01:39 AM #3 (permalink)  
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I like the way you played this. Nice hand.
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a500lbgorilla
Old 06-24-2006, 02:46 AM #4 (permalink)  
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i just push the flop. top pair + gutshot + equity, and it's not like you're going to fold if a deuce drops on the turn.

Smithers, use the amnesia ray.
You mean the revolver, sir?
Precisely.
 
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Vrax
Old 06-24-2006, 03:57 AM #5 (permalink)  
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That's monster flop for sooted big Ace and it's worth play for stacks.
"How could I call that bet? How could you MAKE that bet? It's poker not solitaire. " - that Gus Bronson guy
 
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bdawg56kg
Old 06-24-2006, 07:14 AM #6 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla
i just push the flop. top pair + gutshot + equity, and it's not like you're going to fold if a deuce drops on the turn.
Why do we want to push here? I don't think we have any fold equity against better hands, since almost all better hands aren't folding, except maybe JT. I prefer just calling and hoping lower flush draws and straight draws come along.
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andy-akb
Old 06-24-2006, 02:59 PM #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla
i just push the flop. top pair + gutshot + equity, and it's not like you're going to fold if a deuce drops on the turn.
Dont forget the nut flush draw. With this strong draw Id want to get it all in on the flop, your equity drops a ton if you call and the turn bricks. It didnt, but I think the "standard" play would be to push here.
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Miffed22001
Old 06-24-2006, 03:23 PM #8 (permalink)  
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 absofuckinglutly shove against players with these vpips (even though its a small number!)
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andy-akb
Old 06-24-2006, 04:06 PM #9 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bdawg56kg
Quote:
Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla
i just push the flop. top pair + gutshot + equity, and it's not like you're going to fold if a deuce drops on the turn.
Why do we want to push here? I don't think we have any fold equity against better hands, since almost all better hands aren't folding, except maybe JT. I prefer just calling and hoping lower flush draws and straight draws come along.
Arent we giving up a lot of equity by not trying to get it in on the flop? If we put our opponent solely on a range of hands that is ahead [or tied] of [with] us at the time, TT+, AQs+, AQ+,JTs,JTo,QJs,QJo, then we are virtually a coinflip on the flop:

Board: Qc Td Jd
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 49.7176 % 44.05% 05.67% { AdQd }
Hand 2: 50.2824 % 44.61% 05.67% { TT+, AQs+, QJs, JTs, AQo+, QJo, JTo }

Now say we simply call and then the turn bricks and is a 4h, look at how our equity has changed:

Board: Qc Td Jd 4h
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 33.6271 % 27.92% 05.71% { AdQd }
Hand 2: 66.3729 % 60.67% 05.71% { TT+, AQs+, QJs, JTs, AQo+, QJo, JTo }

Now I think its safe to assume that there are some hands villain has that arent in this range and he would fold. So if he only folds wore hands and only calls with better hands, this is +EV. Im not great with EV calculations though, so Im not sure how to compare the EV of calling and re-evaluating on the turn to pushing the flop. I think both are probably going to be +EV, Im just not sure which would be more.

I really could be way off with my thinking and have no idea what Im talking about, if I am then please tell me.
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