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dalecooper
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04-28-2005, 02:19 PM
Post subject: Would you fold this?
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#1 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 3,107
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Full ring game... I'm on the button, I get AKo. One limper ahead of me; I raise to 3xBB, SB folds, BB calls, and the limper folds. So we go to the flop heads up. BB has shown himself to be a pretty tight (but not passive) player, and a bit tricky (I've seen him check-raise a couple of times in the last hour).
The flop is KQJ rainbow. BB checks. I consider a standard bet for me (2/3 to full pot), but bet only half the pot this time. After a moment's hesitation BB check-raises me 4x my bet.
I folded... my thinking was that the board was way too dangerous; he could have easily flopped two pair or a set, possibly even a straight, and I'd be way behind.
Your thoughts, please.
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lolzzz_321
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NO YOU
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: My ice is polarized
Posts: 2,797
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G00t lay down IMO.
Board is really scary.
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drmcboy
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DrButtInski
Administrator
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 9,603
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tough because you can see him making that same play with AQ AJ, but I think folding is the play here. What do you do if he bets again on the turn... 10 you're probably splitting, A you may be beat, another Q or J makes you very unhappy, another K and you may still be beat but the hand is that much harder to get away from... anything else if he bets out you have to think you're behind.
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storm75m
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Flush
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: 6MAX-NL - Houston
Posts: 401
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sorry, but IMO, I don't lay down here. What were you playing this hand for in the first place? You get tptk, and a nut straight draw, make a weak bet (maybe to trap?) and he falls for your trap, I push after his re-raise (or just call and fire at him again on the turn). That's just me though. When this player was check raising before, did he show down big hands or was it folded before a showdown? He knows the board is scary, and your weak bet suggests that your scared of it... so i would re-raise there as well with any piece of that board. All depends on your reads though... Also I play with all the low-limit fish at Party that do stupid things, so what do I know. 
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Lack of Discipline and Over-Confidence... The root of all poker evil.
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,336
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How deep is the money?
I think this is a pretty routine laydown. I would seriously consider checking behind on the flop because a bet turns your hand into 72o if he raises you.
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storm75m
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Flush
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: 6MAX-NL - Houston
Posts: 401
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I think if you would have at least bet the pot (or over-bet it) you would've known where you stand better. On a scary board when I was the pre-flop raiser and I have a piece, I bet big, just to find out where I'm at. That small of a bet just looks too much like a continuation bet...
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Lack of Discipline and Over-Confidence... The root of all poker evil.
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drmcboy
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DrButtInski
Administrator
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 9,603
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How deep is the money?
This is good question, if the pot has 7-8 bucks and the dude has 10 sitting in front, I might move in, but if you're sitting with 50 plus I think you can find a better spot.
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dalecooper
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 3,107
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Interesting question Fnord. Pot's about $2.50 on the flop; I bet $1.50 and his raise makes it $6 (or $4.50 back to me). We both have over the buy-in of $25 - I think we were both sitting with between $30 and $35.
Storm - I'm playing the hand for a K or A high flop that doesn't very easily give an opponent something better. The straight draw is nothing to me at this point, just 4 outs if I'm behind. I'm not pushing on TPTK every time I get it, and CERTAINLY not on a dangerous board like that. I look at it like this:
- if he's already got two pair (the most likely scenario IMO), I have seven clean outs: three aces, four tens. Another king doesn't help me because his hand could easily be KQ or KJ. If I get another king I'm not pushing against a possible boat.
- if he's already got a set I have four clean outs, the tens (and he's got a great draw to fill up and beat me anyway)
- if he's got the straight, I have four outs that either win or tie (depending if he has T9 or AT)... so for argument's sake let's say two outs
- The most worrisome part is how often things I think are outs actually screw me. If he's got two pair or a set, another king might nail my coffin and cost me my stack. If he's got something stupid like KT or QT, an ace might cost me my stack.
No matter how you look at it, I'm way behind if my read is right, and my draw to improve isn't that strong. My read could be wrong and he's overplaying something that isn't that great, but I still have to call or raise a larger-than-pot-sized bet from him to find out.
I tend to agree with Fnord - despite appearances this is almost a must-fold. And I wish now I had checked behind on the flop; would have been nice to get a free card and see if that ten came out.
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Lucid
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Straight
Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 142
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I think I would have bet 3/4 the pot here. 1/2 just screams weakness too much. I think you are better off laying this one down. If he had doubled your bet then you would definetely call but not 4x. The pot is getting big and you are relying on a gutshot. Lay it down while its cheap. It sure would help to know what he had when he check-raised before.
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storm75m
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Flush
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: 6MAX-NL - Houston
Posts: 401
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Lucid
If he had doubled your bet then you would definetely call but not 4x.
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Very good point, 4x is a little scarier, and I would be a bit more cautious as well. However a good player knows how much of a raise needs to be made in order to get others to fold. A 4x raise is almost screaming that he wants you to lay it down here. This is a very tough one. If you really flopped a monster, would you make a huge raise, or just enough to temp them to call? Personally, if I flopped two pair or better there, (especially if I'm tricky) i would just call or make a weak re-raise, to see if I can get more money in the pot. That situation to me just looks like "scary board, weak bet, I'm taking this pot here and now."
Like I said before, this really depends on your read, and the past hands he's SHOWN DOWN, not just his ability to check-raise.
(My opinion my also be a little biased, cause at those limits, people have been betting into me with all kinds of garbage lately.)
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Lack of Discipline and Over-Confidence... The root of all poker evil.
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Lucid
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Straight
Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 142
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I agree that he is trying to take down the pot Storm77m but I think its because he has flopped two pair or a set and he is afraid the board might turn on him and give his opponent a strait or something else in the following rounds. But you may be right, especially since this guy has been check-raiseing alot. Check-raising to steal pots might be one of his regular plays. If I had seen this guy check-raising like this to steal a pot just once before I think I would call or even raise instead. If we only knew what he had before when he check-raised then we could make the right decision.
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storm75m
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Flush
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: 6MAX-NL - Houston
Posts: 401
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A few other things to consider:
- is this .10/.25 blinds? In that case, a 3bb pre-flop raise of .75 is not very much, I would have re-raised with QQ KK or JJ.
-the fact that he just called the preflop raise and then checks the flop to you signifies a little weakness (this could be negated by his trickyness)
- since you are on the button, he could just think you are making a position raise (especially with the weak bet after the flop), and wants to defend his blind (although .25 is not really worth defending, but his image is...)
Either way it goes, this is a very tough borderline decision, safer to fold. If you've got a little gamble in you, then go for it.
(and of course we could have avoided all of this (or had a lot more information) by making a bigger bet on the flop, or checking behind)
My .08 - hope it helps for next time... but there never is a next time is there?
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Lack of Discipline and Over-Confidence... The root of all poker evil.
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