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Would you call this on a draw?

  
 
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Borax
Old 03-21-2005, 12:09 PM     Post subject: Would you call this on a draw? #1 (permalink)  
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Borax
0.25/0.5$ NL 10 players

Dealt to Borax in EP (JJ)
X raise 2$
Borax call 2$
Y reraise to 6$
X call 4$
Borax call 4$
FLOP (AKQ)
X check
Borax bet 6$
Y raise to 40$ all in
X fold
Borax call 34$ all in
TURN (8)
RIVER (2)
Borax shows (JJ) a pair of J's
Y show (KK) three K's
Y wins pot


My thoughts: From my read I knew he had KK, AA, QQ or maybe AKs
I figured I had:
1 out for royal straight flush (10)
3 outs for a straight (3 other tens)
8 outs for nut flush (remaining s)
+ some very small chance of hitting 2 more J's
= about 4x12= 48% chance to win
if he had AK I get 2 more outs for two remaining J's = 4x14=52%
So I'm close to a coin flip here I would say.
Would you have called this
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mcpeepants
Old 03-21-2005, 01:31 PM #2 (permalink)  
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The pot odds are 64:34, or 1.88:1 so since you are about 1:1 to call this I would. It has +EV in the long run, even though you lost this time.
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a500lbgorilla
Old 03-21-2005, 02:06 PM #3 (permalink)  
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With the money already, you'll be fine.

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You mean the revolver, sir?
Precisely.
 
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dsaxton
Old 03-21-2005, 02:10 PM #4 (permalink)  
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dsaxton
It's also worth noting that your opponent almost certainly has a set here and can pair the board to have you drawing dead to a royal flush, so not only do you have to hit one of your draws, you will usually have to avoid a whole collection of cards on the turn and river. I don't really think it's worth it.
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Pyroxene
Old 03-21-2005, 02:17 PM     Post subject: Re: Would you call this on a draw? #5 (permalink)  
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Posts: 236
Pyroxene
Quote:
Originally Posted by Borax
0.25/0.5$ NL 10 players

Dealt to Borax in EP (JJ)
X raise 2$
Borax call 2$
Y reraise to 6$
X call 4$
Borax call 4$
FLOP (AKQ)
X check
Borax bet 6$
Y raise to 40$ all in
X fold
Borax call 34$ all in
TURN (8)
RIVER (2)
Borax shows (JJ) a pair of J's
Y show (KK) three K's
Y wins pot
PokerStove says:

1.78 : 1 odds and your pot odds are 1.88 : 1. It is a slightly EV+ call. So . . . even if he flopped his cards up and you knew what he had, it is a good call. Not by much, but still a good call.
Pyroxene
 
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Borax
Old 03-21-2005, 02:25 PM #6 (permalink)  
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Borax
Quote:
dsaxton wrote: ....you will usually have to avoid a whole collection of cards on the turn and river. I don't really think it's worth it.
3x A's , 3x Q's and 1x K = 7 cards to make me need the royal straight flush after the turn. Not too bad I think, but a good point still.
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mcpeepants
Old 03-21-2005, 02:50 PM #7 (permalink)  
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Can't argue with PokerStove. Call that bitch!
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