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eFoldem
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09-21-2005, 10:26 PM
Post subject: Would you Call the Bluff?
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#1 (permalink)
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Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 42
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Low flop all under 10, no possible straight w/o draw 2 spades.
I had AK spade.
A guy who I KNEW had been bluffing like CRAZY whent all in for $14. Pot was about $17 because of all the pre flop raising. (raise $2 from me, call by someone, and raise to 7 from him, then i called and the middle guy folded)
He basically knew he probably had the only hand, but he also knew I had a very very high chance of drawing the win so he was buying the pot before I could draw the win. I would definately call or raise him had I gotten the chance but he raised before my turn.
15 outs
thats 31.9% chance of drawing what I needed. Was it a bad call?
its almost break even.. I called and lost. I was hoping I teach him a damn lesson about trying to bully me, and show everyone that i cant be "scared out" or bluffed out of big pots. I figured since it was a break even c hance that it was worth it. Plus I honestly thought he was bluffing and had nothing. Was that a very bad call?
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Demiparadigm
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Party 6 max
Posts: 1,602
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15 outs twice is over 50%.
Good call.
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To win in poker you only need to be one step ahead of your opponents. Two steps may be detrimental.
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bigred
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PROFESSIONAL TROLL
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Nest of Douchebags
Posts: 2,184
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My rule of thumb for drawing
flop - 4% * outs
turn - 2% * outs
You are technically ahead 60-40 if you're positive that hitting a king or an ace will win you this hand.
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LOL OPERATIONS
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eFoldem
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Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 42
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Ya, he had pocket 66
He was a heavy bluffer!!
AND OMG friedhof59 is the biggest bluffer i know! Bluff's with every hand............
WOW
I had KK he had 10 7 and he whent all in............ I called of course and he drew 10 / 7 CRAZZY
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melinda27
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Straight
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 165
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if you are sure you had 15 outs it doesnt matter what he has, you want to get all the money in the middle asap, you're favored to win the hand.
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Demiparadigm
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Party 6 max
Posts: 1,602
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by bigred
My rule of thumb for drawing
flop - 4% * outs
turn - 2% * outs
You are technically ahead 60-40 if you're positive that hitting a king or an ace will win you this hand.
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53% technically, but your approximation is close.
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To win in poker you only need to be one step ahead of your opponents. Two steps may be detrimental.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Demiparadigm
Quote:
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Originally Posted by bigred
My rule of thumb for drawing
flop - 4% * outs
turn - 2% * outs
You are technically ahead 60-40 if you're positive that hitting a king or an ace will win you this hand.
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53% technically, but your approximation is close. |
Better rule of thumb is to correct the odds by subracting 1% for each out over 8 which gives the correct 53%
But if you have 15 outs it's all in, baby
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Miffed22001
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Marry Me Cheryl!!!
Posts: 8,181
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I dont normally like calling on the draw for my stack, but here if your certain that if you catch anything it puts you ahead then i'd make the call too. If hes a known bluffer then im definatly making the call.
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