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dalecooper
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02-28-2005, 09:10 PM
Post subject: Would you be able to lay this down?
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#1 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 3,107
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I hated this hand. I knew I was beat and was physically/emotionally unable to let it go.
6 max, $50 buy-in table. I get pocket aces and raise just 2xBB to $3. This is not my standard raise, but in my short time at the table the 3x and 4x raises have been getting zero action, so I am concerned about getting all folds. Well, this raise gets nothing but action - all but one player call, so five see the flop. Bizarre.
Flop comes AJT rainbow.
I bet a bit over the pot - $15 bet, pot's just under that because of the rake. I would slowplay this a little bit if it weren't for the obvious straight possibilities... I don't want anyone making the mistake of thinking their gutshot draw is getting good odds. In this case, an aggressive bet seems like a good idea. But the next player raises enough to put me all in ($30 raise). Everyone else slowly folds whatever-they've-got. My thoughts:
1. I know (as in, I'm 90% sure) he's on KQ and has me beat. If I call this, I'm basically hoping for the board to pair and save my ass.
2. It seems at least somewhat possible that he flopped a different good hand - a lower set or two pair, or maybe he's even got AK - and is betting out to protect it. That's possible, right? I slowly talk myself into it. Maybe it's 25% possible, or even 50% possible. Sure, why not. And that would make it worth my while to call, right?
3. My notes on the player who raised indicate that he is capable of playing crap hands for a raise and that he likes to bluff. Maybe he's repping KQ. In a 5-way pot with a big bet in front of him - sure, he's repping it.
4. I am dead.
I make the call, the board doesn't pair, he shows KQ and I lose. This, by the way, was the only set I hit today.
So would you lay this down? I wanted to, I swear to you I knew I was beat and I wanted to. But I could NOT do it. And it cost me big time.
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BigmacAg
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Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 29
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I feel your pain. I wouldn't be able to lay this down either. Especially with your notes on the guy. I have talked myself into calling players that I know are tight and I know have me beat, but I just HAVE to see what they have or else I wouldn't be able to sleep at night. Too bad I can't sleep after making the call and getting beat. Ugh.
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<Buaidh no Bas>
Victory or Death
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lolzzz_321
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NO YOU
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: My ice is polarized
Posts: 2,797
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Tough beat, I would call to see if I would fill up, even though that is the wrong move long term.
Board will pair up like 1/3 of the time I believe, or ull hit ur ace.
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Kiriath
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Straight
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Denmark
Posts: 216
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one of those hands u just cant lay down, I would put him on two pair or maybe even a set too. betting to protect from draws. ya sure its possibly that he got the nuts. but u cant just lay down tripped aces. at least I cant =) not with this little information on the players, maybe if he had slowplayed for a trip or straight, then got it and bet big, MAYBE. or maybe not. id prolly call anyway since ur so deeply involved.
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hankr
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Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 34
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These are the ones we remember; when we lose.
What we forget are the other 7 out of 10 times you make the call and win.
Play in this $50 buy-in game is probably MUCH tighter than the nickel-dime games I play. But in my games, I do what you did EVERY time.
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DrNoChance
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Flush
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 411
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KQ is quite a bit more likely for him to be holding than smaller set (16:6).
However, you've got outs for the boat, a small chance that he's loose enough to be in there with AJ for top two, a small chance that he's overplaying AK here, and a small chance that he's flat out bluffing (but this is unlikely...look at that board, and there's 3 people behind him yet to act if I understand correctly).
If there's any chance in my mind that he'd play AK/AJ in a manner consistant with the action up to this point I have to make a call here. Only against somebody super tight and conservative can I tell myself that KQ is likely enough for a fold to be right. Heck, even then you may still have pot odds to call as long as a smaller set is still a possible holding for him (then the combined chance of either already being ahead OR catching a boat might make the call +EV even though he most likely has KQ)
In other words, I'd have called too. Tough break 
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Waggho
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Flush
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Sweden
Posts: 260
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I would have called that any day.
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Pyroxene
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Straight
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 236
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If I read your history right, after his raise it was a $60 pot with a $30 call to you, giving 2:1 pot odds.
Assuming no flush possibilities, odds of you picking up the boat or 4 of a kind by the river are 1.87:1.
So . . . if he raised me $30 to All-In and flipped over his straight I would still make the call. It is an EV+ call.
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Pyroxene
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FishMagician
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Straight
Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 206
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Nice point Pyroxene. Pretty much takes all the guessing out of it when you have odds to call even if he has the straight.
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dalecooper
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 3,107
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In all my gnashing of teeth over this hand, I didn't even consider that my pot odds were favorable. Thanks for the insight. I hate the way this turned out but it least I seem to have made the right decision.
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FlyingSaucy
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Watching the kids
Posts: 1,603
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I dont see how a lower set or even two pair is out of the question. I think you played it well.
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TylerK
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: PEANUT BUTTER JELLY TIME
Posts: 1,791
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I don't think you can ever be sure enough that he has KQ that you can lay this down, definitely not 90% sure. The fact that there's a good chance you are way ahead, along with the pot odds to fill up, makes this a no brainer call.
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TylerK: its just gambling if i want to worry about money i'll go to work lol
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UncleBuddy
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Straight
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Somewhere chasing an open ended straight despite several large raises
Posts: 154
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I doubt I could. Its one of those scenarios where the best case has you dominating him and the worst case leaves you 10 outs on the river. It sucks, but you almost have to call it.
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"America is at that awkward stage. It's too late to work within the system, but too early to shoot the bastards."
- Claire Wolfe, 101 Things to Do 'Til the Revolution
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