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Why is he raising this river?

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Irisheyes

12-12-2005, 03:50 PM Post subject: Why is he raising this river?

#1 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jun 2005

Location: over there

Posts: 3,708

Villan is loose preflop, aggressive/tightish postflop. Average player.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hand #151225655 at table: Table TH 1561
Started: Mon Dec 12 16:19:18 2005

robertos99 is at seat 1 with 54.85
Chancos is at seat 2 with 35.10
Money4Drug is at seat 3 with 57.10
Razor78 is at seat 4 with 84.90
Matthias19 is at seat 5 with 41.00
Rayran is at seat 6 with 61.98
miura is at seat 7 with 48.25
stier is at seat 8 with 71.65
AFV is at seat 9 with 31.73
schleicher is at seat 10 with 39.30

stier posts the large blind 0.50
miura posts the small blind 0.25

Money4Drug: Kh, Qs

Pre-flop:

AFV: Call 0.50
schleicher: Call 0.50
robertos99: Fold
Chancos: Fold
Money4Drug: Call 0.50
Razor78: Call 0.50
Matthias19: Fold
Rayran: Call 0.50
miura: Call 0.50
stier: Check

Flop (Board: 5c, Kc, 7c):

miura: Check
stier: Check
AFV: Bet 1.00
schleicher: Fold
Money4Drug: Raise 3.50
Razor78: Call 3.50
Rayran: Fold
miura: Fold
stier: Fold
AFV: Fold

Turn (Board: 5c, Kc, 7c, 4h):

Money4Drug: Bet 3.50
Razor78: Call 3.50

River (Board: 5c, Kc, 7c, 4h, Ks):

Money4Drug: Bet 5.00
Razor78: Raise 30.00
Money4Drug: ???

Advice on all streets please.
Does the river card help him?

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edudlive

12-12-2005, 04:19 PM

#2 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Jul 2005

Location: 100NL 6max

Posts: 623

Set that thought you for the flush, he filled up.

(16:02:25) Fleece: u think ur liked now?
(16:02:31) Fleece: that u got real life friends
(16:02:48) Fleece: enjoy ur real life friends
(16:03:08) Fleece: ur e-friends dont wanna knwo about u anymore

siknd

12-12-2005, 04:38 PM

#3 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Sep 2005

Posts: 359

this pattern is also typical for a club ace missed draw, although his kicker could well be a K (ulikely due to no pf raise).

i like the raise on the flop vs post oak. the turn bet is too small if you suspect a club draw, flush draw is correct to call here.

i dislike the river bet. if you put him on the flush draw, then value betting will be unsuccessful, it would be better to allow him the chance to bluff at the pot.

it seems also very likely that he is 777 praying for the board to pair. you could have been drawing dead on the turn. betting the river shows some strength, which you really dont want to do when you cant call a large raise (suspected bluff or not).

if you think that he also has a K, then you are giving away value by betting too small, ie 5$ into ~18$.

there are a lot of hands that you are in big trouble against, and really very few that beat you. the answer is that the K didnt help him, the hand was decided before it came out. it was probably the worst card in the deck for you. you need to put your man on a hand earlier, and based on the river bet, i dont htink this happend in this case.

'If you think a weakness can be turned into a strength, I hate to tell you this, but that's another weakness. '

siknd

12-12-2005, 04:44 PM

#4 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Sep 2005

Posts: 359

*really few that YOU beat.

dislexia is killing me...

'If you think a weakness can be turned into a strength, I hate to tell you this, but that's another weakness. '

EricE

12-12-2005, 04:48 PM

#5 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Jun 2005

Posts: 894

If he is on the flush then the bet could be because he now thinks trip Ks will be willing to pay him off. Honestly, I think he has the flush. On the turn he is smooth calling your weak bet knowing you aren’t going to put more money in against the flush. He may have been planning to raise the river regardless of what it was (I would).

Stakes: Playing $0.10/$0.25 NL

biondino

12-12-2005, 04:51 PM

#6 (permalink)

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Location: Putney, UK; Full Tilt,Mansion; $50 NL and PL; $13 and $16 SNGs at Stars

Posts: 3,170

He made a flush on the flop, put you on a king, called you down on the flop and turn, and was always going to re-raise on the river when another king comes up, so he thinks there's a good chance you'll call his big raise?

siknd

12-12-2005, 05:04 PM

#7 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Sep 2005

Posts: 359

Quote:

Originally Posted by biondino

possibly if its the nut flush. i think only the nut flush plays it this way, and even so, i disagree with it. i raise the turn if im the flush.

and i wouldnt raise that much on river, when the one situation occurs that i dont want to occur, ie a paired board. three times raise to $15 would be more realistic, since it is unlikely that any king kicker fills up with the board, ie K4/7 is not a real threat here.

HOWEVER, to raise 6x to $30, you are only going to get calls from flopped sets that rivered boats. so, have fun winning small pots and losing big ones.

hes gotta have the boat, or bluffing.

'If you think a weakness can be turned into a strength, I hate to tell you this, but that's another weakness. '

Dio

12-12-2005, 05:58 PM

#8 (permalink)

Join Date: Sep 2005

Posts: 14

Quote:

Originally Posted by siknd

HOWEVER, to raise 6x to $30, you are only going to get calls from flopped sets that rivered boats. so, have fun winning small pots and losing big ones.

Are you sure about that? Even in 100 or 200 NL I see lotsa people calling similar raises or an all-in with the nuts flush in that situation...they tend not to believe that you really made the boat...

bdawg56kg

12-13-2005, 04:19 AM

#9 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Oct 2004

Location: Honolulu

Posts: 1,201

I definitely think you need a read here to call. Without a read I fold this all the time. What is the point of your turn bet? I would bet more, like $7. It would get you more info and you would not be faced with this difficult river decision. Villian could have easily flopped a monster and figures you only for a king, so when you hit trips and bet slightly more, villian is licking his lips and slams you with a huge reraise hoping you make a sucker call with your trips. On a side note, while that river K looks golden to you, it really doessn't improve your hand. Any hand that you were ahead of before the river, you are still ahead of, and any hand that had you beat prior to the river still has you beat, with the exception of a counterfeited 2 pair or AA, but given villian's line, that would be the last hands I put him on.

But I hate the whole way the hand went down. You have TPGK on a 3-flush board with seven players to the flop. I am folding this hand to any type of resistance without any reads. I probaby check this turn too.

My guess is that you want the best of both worlds. You played it passive preflop by not raising, but when you hit your top pair on an ugly board you want to crank up the aggression when there's a very good chance you're beat. So my suggestion is to commit to one style. If you're going to play passively and call preflop, then don't get excited when you hit top pair on that flop (ie don't be afraid to fold at any sign of strength). But if you want to take the aggressive line, then raise preflop and by all means play that flop, turn, and river aggressively, but fold if you sense you're beat.

I fold KQo preflop here. Also, given the way the hand played out, I think there is a very small chance of villian being on a bluff here.

Fnord

12-13-2005, 01:45 PM

#10 (permalink)

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Fnord is an unknown quantity at this point

I think this is a reasonable range for your game? (minus the flopped flush)

25 games 0.005 secs 5,000 games/sec

Board: Kc 5c 7c 4h Ks
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 42.0000 % 36.00% 06.00% { KK, 77, 55, K2s+, KTo+ }
Hand 2: 58.0000 % 52.00% 06.00% { KhQs }

$52 in the pot, $25 to call. Lets say this is a flopped flush 25% of the time so you're good here like 39% of the time. Fudge for the chances he just calls with worse trips or even a bluff. This is kinda close.

Fuckers need to learn to min-raise their monsters on the river so you don't get put to difficult decisions....

Anyway, I would just call this flop and see what happens on the turn. Quite often I'll pop it there.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

Irisheyes

12-13-2005, 04:04 PM

#11 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jun 2005

Location: over there

Posts: 3,708

Thanks for the responses.

The flop bet was to find out what the villans min bet was all about. Lots of times I see him fold to this raise.

I feel I messed up the turn bet because I was torn between playing this really passivly after my flop raise didn't work, (ie. Not kicking into action until I see the river and depending on weather the fourth club comes out), and playing it aggro. all the way through.

The river really confused me, I just bet because I wasn't sure what elso to do. I think my river play needs a lot of work. I ended up making a complete donk call, convincing myself he had a lower K.

He flipped over K7 for anyone who wants to know. Not one of my better hands but I'm learning all the way.

As for not raising preflop, this is something I've been thinking about a lot lately. At the moment I don't raise KQ but that may change soon, not sure.

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Why is he raising this river?

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