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Where do I stand?

  
 
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CrunchyNuts
Old 10-25-2005, 05:32 AM     Post subject: Where do I stand? #1 (permalink)  
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BB just sat down maybe an orbit ago, PT says semi-loose passive and I see no reason to disagree.

Party Network No-Limit Hold'em, $25 (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Button ($41.91)
SB ($20.60)
BB ($18.05)
UTG ($26.01)
Hero ($47.17)
UTG+2 ($9.50)
MP1 ($8.10)
MP2 ($25.90)
MP3 ($22.75)
CO ($9.40)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 8, 8. SB posts a blind of $0.10.
1 fold, Hero calls $0.25, UTG+2 calls $0.25, 6 folds, BB raises to $0.75, Hero calls $0.75, UTG+2 folds.

Flop: ($2.35) 8, 5, 4 (2 players)
BB bets $1, Hero raises to $3, BB calls $2.

Turn: ($8.35) 7 (2 players)
BB bets $3, Hero calls $3.

River: ($14.35) J (2 players)
BB calls $11.05 (All-In), Hero thinks.
Up my bankroll - buy Saints Row.
 
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homeboy604
Old 10-25-2005, 05:46 AM #2 (permalink)  
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re raise turn big
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Infamous
Old 10-25-2005, 06:05 AM #3 (permalink)  
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Hardly passive.

Would he push this with a straight/flush? Possibly.

An overpair? Probably.

A lower set? Probably.

AJ/KJ/JQ? It's $25nl.

The turn bet is suspiciously small, and after you've shoved a sign in his face to tell him you have a very big hand, too. This in itself doesn't mean a whole lot, as many players at these limits don't really understand bet sizes. What would be a better focus is why is a tagged passive player suddenly betting every street? The label passive doesn't put him on a 6 or 9T here, although I would have seen worse.

So what are we worried about? AKc and JJ, which must have a decent chance of being true with the betting until now - most players will go with their overpair here and many will stick with their overcards at this limit. The small turn bet would have given him a cheap river card, and in which case he didn't play it so badly with the exception of the flop call - a call which could easily suggest an unmade hand.

There is also a case to suggest that he has very little and is making a desperate last ditch attempt to rep a scare card and take this pot. If you can't credit him with the ability to think away from his own hole cards, this is very possible, because why would you want to scare out a lesser hand now? Keep the bet small enough for him to call.

Given what we know about him and the action until this point. QQ and JJ seem the most likely of his holdings. How often does he need to have QQ here? A little a under 2.5-to-1 bet, and so if he's packing QQ half the time, you're coming up trumps.

In terms of what you could have done to improve your decision (or at least odds) here, a raise on the turn seems good - perhaps to 10, you don't want to push him off of it if he really wants to play, but you want to make him calling a mistake, which translates directly as long term profit. I don't think you're hugely worried he's holding a 6.
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CrunchyNuts
Old 10-25-2005, 02:06 PM #4 (permalink)  
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My thoughts on the last 3 streets were like this:
Flop: See if he has a made hand - no, but he wants to keep playing.
Turn: He thinks he's ahead? No way he raised with a 6 unless perhaps 66 - unlikely enough I'm not giving credit for. Call to string him along - I have a strong hand and my opp thinks he's stronger.
River: WTF? Would he bet out the flush draw on the turn? I doubt it. Overs, perhaps - but then the flop play seems overly weak compared to the rest of the hand. Well, when I can't figure the opp for anything, he probably has nothing, and I beat nothing - call.

Sound reasonable?
Up my bankroll - buy Saints Row.
 
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r8ed
Old 10-25-2005, 02:07 PM #5 (permalink)  
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He didn't have JJ did he?
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CrunchyNuts
Old 10-25-2005, 02:08 PM #6 (permalink)  
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Results will come after I'm sure my play here doesn't suck donkey balls. =)
Up my bankroll - buy Saints Row.
 
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DimitriT
Old 10-25-2005, 02:55 PM #7 (permalink)  
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Ugh.. this would be so much easier with bigger stacks at 100NL.
I guess you gotta call this for the following reasons:

1. PFR - you beat most standard raising hands and smaller flopped sets
2. flop/turn betting rounds - villain looks like he has a made hand rather than a draw and your betting hasn't indicated great strength
3. pot odds - you are getting 2:1

Reasons not to call:

1. This is 25NL and he could be playing any cards in any way

At some point you have to pay off the donks. I do it all too often.
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biondino
Old 10-25-2005, 02:57 PM #8 (permalink)  
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If this is 25NL I reckon he had AKc to QJc, with A4-A8 an outside chance.

You have a flush draw and a substantial straight draw on the table - unless you're sure you're facing an overpair you're in real danger. I'd be tempted to push on the turn since he's next to pot committed anyway - your call here just gives him the chance to catch a draw, and if he does, then what?
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r8ed
Old 10-25-2005, 03:19 PM #9 (permalink)  
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I think your play here is fine. The turn could have been a little higher, but I know you are trying to get more money out of him. Call the river.
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mxiu
Old 10-25-2005, 03:30 PM #10 (permalink)  
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Call the river. I don't think a flush pushes this river. I could see A8 making this play.
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CrunchyNuts
Old 10-25-2005, 03:38 PM #11 (permalink)  
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I'm sufficiently convinced that my play was g00t~ Walking the fine line between not giving drawing odds and extracting with a dominating hand is a toughy, but I think I'm getting better.

BB turned over A J
Up my bankroll - buy Saints Row.
 
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TalentedTom
Old 10-26-2005, 02:07 AM #12 (permalink)  
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BB raised preflop only hand he can raise with that would have you beat would be A6s, ez ez ez call, I would personally move in on the turn, but thats me.
Don't overthink against the fishies, just play strong.
Tom.S
 
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