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When keepin it real goes wrong (brilliant, Triptanes)

  
 
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nutsinho
Old 04-10-2006, 02:10 PM     Post subject: When keepin it real goes wrong (brilliant, Triptanes) #1 (permalink)  
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Seat 3: onokine ( $345.10 )
Seat 4: HUI_Index ( $130.85 )
Seat 6: chicotime ( $196 )
Seat 5: nutsinho ( $197.10 )
Seat 1: asdf808 ( $207.15 )
Seat 2: takeit68 ( $48 )
chicotime posts small blind [$1].
asdf808 posts big blind [$2].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to nutsinho [ Js Tc ]
takeit68 raises [$4].
onokine folds.
HUI_Index calls [$4].
nutsinho calls [$4].
chicotime folds.
asdf808 folds.
** Dealing Flop ** [ 9c, Kc, 3d ]
takeit68 bets [$6].
HUI_Index raises [$12].
nutsinho raises [$28].
takeit68 folds.
HUI_Index calls [$16].
** Dealing Turn ** [ 3c ]
HUI_Index checks.
nutsinho checks.
** Dealing River ** [ 9d ]
HUI_Index bets [$20].
nutsinho raises [$100].
HUI_Index is all-In [$78.85]
nutsinho shows [ Js, Tc ] two pairs, nines and threes.
HUI_Index shows [ 8c, 7c ] a flush, king high.
nutsinho wins $1.15 from side pot #1 with two pairs, nines and threes.
HUI_Index wins $271.70 from the main pot with a flush, king high.
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mxiu
Old 04-10-2006, 02:20 PM #2 (permalink)  
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...huh?
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Renton
Old 04-10-2006, 02:25 PM #3 (permalink)  
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nh sir

I think T high wins this pot AT LEAST 50% of the time.
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nutsinho
Old 04-11-2006, 01:07 AM #4 (permalink)  
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I put him on the flush draw when he minraised the flop, so i put in a third bet to isolate.
Is there something I did wrong in repping a hand that beat a baby flush on a double-paired board?!? (specifically K9/33)
I had no read that this guy was a moron...
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Warpe
Old 04-11-2006, 01:15 AM #5 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nutsinho
I put him on the flush draw when he minraised the flop, so i put in a third bet to isolate.
Is there something I did wrong in repping a hand that beat a baby flush on a double-paired board?!? (specifically K9/33)
I had no read that this guy was a moron...
In your experience, how often do made flushes not call?
 
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salsa4ever
Old 04-12-2006, 02:38 PM #6 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nutsinho
I put him on the flush draw when he minraised the flop, so i put in a third bet to isolate.
Is there something I did wrong in repping a hand that beat a baby flush on a double-paired board?!? (specifically K9/33)
I had no read that this guy was a moron...
Based on all the play on the hand I could not put you on quads or K9(!!what kind of a hand is that to call even a min raise?). Getting over 3:1 I'm making that call all day long
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well courtie, since we're both clear, would you accept an invitation for some unprotected sex?
 
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piratepeaty
Old 04-12-2006, 02:45 PM #7 (permalink)  
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[quote="salsa4ever"]
Quote:
Originally Posted by nutsinho

Based on all the play on the hand I could not put you on quads or K9(!!what kind of a hand is that to call even a min raise?). Getting over 3:1 in a big pot I'm making that call all day long
FYP
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piratepeaty
Old 04-12-2006, 02:50 PM #8 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nutsinho
I put him on the flush draw when he minraised the flop, so i put in a third bet to isolate.
Is there something I did wrong in repping a hand that beat a baby flush on a double-paired board?!? (specifically K9/33)
I had no read that this guy was a moron...
Why no bet on the turn? You put him on a flush draw (correctly) and yet you give him a free card. I could understand giving a free card and then bet if he missed, but he hit here and bet into you.

I don't see him folding here.
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gabe
Old 04-12-2006, 04:05 PM #9 (permalink)  
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if he checks river, i would push, but he bet so i would fold
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nutsinho
Old 04-12-2006, 04:35 PM #10 (permalink)  
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I checked the turn because it was the third club! Are you guys even reading the hand history?

And gabe, I'd fold if he bet 30 or something but when he bets 20$ into a 74$ pot it makes me think "well my hand isnt that strong but it beats a king with a good kicker so you should call me with that but if you push ill know you have the boat and fold"
But seriously, he has to call 78 for the 172 in the pot so he's getting closer to 2 to 1 than 3 to 1, and I don't know how you can call with a crappy flush on a board with two pair where i three-bet the flop with a clean image then pushed over his river value-bet...(intelligent) thoughts please?
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gabe
Old 04-12-2006, 04:46 PM #11 (permalink)  
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yea, just the fact that he bet makes me fold. i dont think fish have a notion on bet size in relation to the pot.

push when they check to you twice, but don't try to do it against obvious strength. he could have just as easily have a 9 here.

think...if you had a hand with a 9 in it, wouldn't you push hoping to get a call from the flush?
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LimpinAintEZ
Old 04-12-2006, 04:48 PM #12 (permalink)  
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I don't know how you can call with a crappy flush on a board with two pair where i three-bet the flop with a clean image then pushed over his river value-bet...(intelligent) thoughts please?

Here is a thought - Maybe your table image isn't quite as good as you think. 1st off, why did you even turn this into a huge pot in the first place? All you had was a gutshot straight draw and your doing all the pushing - Practically any bet into the river by him ($20 is more than enough) should have told you to fold - I like to bluff people also, but you should be giving the guy praise for picking you off when you made a bad play, not criticising him for making a good call - A flush is probably a monster against you if your willing to make those kinda bets into players

this is your mistake, IMO -

takeit68 bets [$6].
HUI_Index raises [$12].
nutsinho raises [$28].

a bet and a raise in front of you means something in NL - Your reraising 2 players here with nothing but a gutshot - Not a terrible play, but then you KEEP betting it even though you got called on the flop - Why didn't you just wait for a better spot?
this space intentionally left blank
 
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piratepeaty
Old 04-12-2006, 04:55 PM #13 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nutsinho
I checked the turn because it was the third club! Are you guys even reading the hand history?

And gabe, I'd fold if he bet 30 or something but when he bets 20$ into a 74$ pot it makes me think "well my hand isnt that strong but it beats a king with a good kicker so you should call me with that but if you push ill know you have the boat and fold"
But seriously, he has to call 78 for the 172 in the pot so he's getting closer to 2 to 1 than 3 to 1, and I don't know how you can call with a crappy flush on a board with two pair where i three-bet the flop with a clean image then pushed over his river value-bet...(intelligent) thoughts please?
My bad on the turn.

He is still getting 2.5 -1. You're hand looks like a big king. You put in a big raise on the flop what are you trying to represent? a big king or a set seems most likely. The turn is a 3, and it completes a club draw and makes a boat or quads for 99 ad 33 respectively. If you had one of these why would you not bet here? Any flush pays you off. A big king checks here, your hand looks like a big king on the turn. The river brings a nine, and as villian it doesn't scare me. It seems very unlikley now that you would have 99, 33 is unlikley as well. K9 is a possibility, but that is the only hand I could see with this line.

Villian bets out and you raise all in. Looks like your hand is a big king that got scared by the flush, then tried to represent a boat. His play isn't that braindead IMO.
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lolzzz_321
Old 04-12-2006, 05:01 PM #14 (permalink)  
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Change post title to: 'When keepin it real goes wrong'
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nutsinho
Old 04-12-2006, 05:13 PM #15 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by piratepeaty
Quote:
Originally Posted by nutsinho
I checked the turn because it was the third club! Are you guys even reading the hand history?

And gabe, I'd fold if he bet 30 or something but when he bets 20$ into a 74$ pot it makes me think "well my hand isnt that strong but it beats a king with a good kicker so you should call me with that but if you push ill know you have the boat and fold"
But seriously, he has to call 78 for the 172 in the pot so he's getting closer to 2 to 1 than 3 to 1, and I don't know how you can call with a crappy flush on a board with two pair where i three-bet the flop with a clean image then pushed over his river value-bet...(intelligent) thoughts please?
My bad on the turn.

He is still getting 2.5 -1. You're hand looks like a big king. You put in a big raise on the flop what are you trying to represent? a big king or a set seems most likely. The turn is a 3, and it completes a club draw and makes a boat or quads for 99 ad 33 respectively. If you had one of these why would you not bet here? Any flush pays you off. A big king checks here, your hand looks like a big king on the turn. The river brings a nine, and as villian it doesn't scare me. It seems very unlikley now that you would have 99, 33 is unlikley as well. K9 is a possibility, but that is the only hand I could see with this line.

Villian bets out and you raise all in. Looks like your hand is a big king that got scared by the flush, then tried to represent a boat. His play isn't that braindead IMO.
he would have to put me on exactly KJ for any of what you just said to be possible. I would 3bet preflop with KQ+ , call with KTs preflop and muck after two bets on teh flop, fold KTo- and K8s- preflop and 3bet or fold KJ on the flop. So its really unlikely that I ever have a hand worse than a low flush here. I might have a higher flush.

Limpin, I turned this into a big pot because of a very specific read that i could isolate against a flush draw and play accordingly. Assuming I'm right about this most of the time my play was +EV. And when I said I had a clean image, you need to take what I say and go with it, not accuse me of having an unclean image due to random fallacious assertions you decide to make. I said I had a clean image at the time because I was, in fact, playing ABC poker during the brief time I'd been at the table, making no plays, and did not recognize any of the opponents as possibly being wary of my capabilities.
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SuperDave9x19
Old 04-12-2006, 05:28 PM #16 (permalink)  
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I think these people are trying to help you. No need to get defensive, especially when you have no defense.

You played badly. Regardless of obvious signs that you were beat, you kept pushing.

Here's a summary in a nutshell.

When your 2 hole cards do ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to improve your hand, you aren't going to have the better hand with people betting seriously.
Been playing money poker for 34 years and decided in 2002 to try that TX Holdem game on TV. Then found Pokerstars in Summer 2005. Still not an overall winner but i am on a good trend and nearly there.
 
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lolzzz_321
Old 04-12-2006, 05:34 PM #17 (permalink)  
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In summary, don't bluff a donk. HE probably doesn't 'put' people on hands, he sees his hand, OMG teh flush, all u can eat babeeeeeeeeeeeey!1!!111!!1!!!
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drtofu66
Old 04-12-2006, 05:42 PM #18 (permalink)  
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If you really did have K9, 33, or 99 wouldn't you play this the same way?

And wouldn't you still expect to get paid off by the flush? If so, why would he lay down his flush now?
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nutsinho
Old 04-12-2006, 05:47 PM #19 (permalink)  
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Dave, I clearly do have a defense..you clearly didn't read it
If you only play for value, then you're not maximizing profit.
the statement "regardless of obvious signs you were beat, you kept pushing" shows that you are only aware of 1/2 of the ways you can win a hand. The rest of your post indicates that you weren't even aware that I was bluffing-looks like you thought I was pushing for value. YOU play badly-don't get defensive, and you're welcome for the help.
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KoRnholio
Old 04-12-2006, 06:02 PM #20 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LimpinAintEZ
I don't know how you can call with a crappy flush on a board with two pair where i three-bet the flop with a clean image then pushed over his river value-bet...(intelligent) thoughts please?
Fish don't pay attention to image or scare cards. "Me have goot flush, me call". Intricate bluffs like these go way over the heads of unthinking players.

Also, why are you raising this flop on a gutshot (with 3 clean outs) after a preflop raisor and cold-caller both show so much interest? I'd let my hand go there without a second thought.
Some days it feels like I've been standing forever, waiting for the bank teller to return so I can cash in all these Sklansky Bucks.
 
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piratepeaty
Old 04-12-2006, 06:35 PM #21 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nutsinho
he would have to put me on exactly KJ for any of what you just said to be possible. I would 3bet preflop with KQ+ , call with KTs preflop and muck after two bets on teh flop, fold KTo- and K8s- preflop and 3bet or fold KJ on the flop. So its really unlikely that I ever have a hand worse than a low flush here. I might have a higher flush.
Quote:
playing ABC poker during the brief time I'd been at the table,
You are contradicting yourself.... You fold KTs after 2 bets? You raised with J10! You always raise with KQ+ or everyone raises with KQ+? You fold K10-? You called J10 os! There is no way he can put you on EXACTLY KJ.

Judging by your posts, you play a high variance style of poker. Sometimes you are going to be called by a better hand when you have J high. Stop treating this like a bad beat, you got called by a better hand.

Apparently, villans read was correct.
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nutsinho
Old 04-12-2006, 06:47 PM #22 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by piratepeaty
Quote:
Originally Posted by nutsinho
he would have to put me on exactly KJ for any of what you just said to be possible. I would 3bet preflop with KQ+ , call with KTs preflop and muck after two bets on teh flop, fold KTo- and K8s- preflop and 3bet or fold KJ on the flop. So its really unlikely that I ever have a hand worse than a low flush here. I might have a higher flush.
Quote:
playing ABC poker during the brief time I'd been at the table,
You are contradicting yourself.... You fold KTs after 2 bets? You raised with J10! You always raise with KQ+ or everyone raises with KQ+? You fold K10-? You called J10 os! There is no way he can put you on EXACTLY KJ.

Judging by your posts, you play a high variance style of poker. Sometimes you are going to be called by a better hand when you have J high. Stop treating this like a bad beat, you got called by a better hand.

Apparently, villans read was correct.
I meant to illustrate what I would expect villain to think...

And BTW, I think JTo plays better than KTo...

But you do make good points. I just felt like when I haven't been playing out of line this was a really ridiculous call.
I posted this to see if there was something obviously wrong with my line, but unfortunately most of the posts have only been so insightful as to tell me I should have realized my hand wasn't best. LOL
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SuperDave9x19
Old 04-12-2006, 07:14 PM #23 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nutsinho
Dave, I clearly do have a defense..you clearly didn't read it
If you only play for value, then you're not maximizing profit.
the statement "regardless of obvious signs you were beat, you kept pushing" shows that you are only aware of 1/2 of the ways you can win a hand. The rest of your post indicates that you weren't even aware that I was bluffing-looks like you thought I was pushing for value. YOU play badly-don't get defensive, and you're welcome for the help.
Uh, no. I don't only play for value.

I certainly didn't think you felt the hand was valuable. What it looks like to me is you tried a bluff. Got called. Got away easy on turn so you figurred to try again.

That was silly.
Been playing money poker for 34 years and decided in 2002 to try that TX Holdem game on TV. Then found Pokerstars in Summer 2005. Still not an overall winner but i am on a good trend and nearly there.
 
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SuperDave9x19
Old 04-12-2006, 07:19 PM #24 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nutsinho
Dave, I clearly do have a defense..you clearly didn't read it
If you only play for value, then you're not maximizing profit.
the statement "regardless of obvious signs you were beat, you kept pushing" shows that you are only aware of 1/2 of the ways you can win a hand. The rest of your post indicates that you weren't even aware that I was bluffing-looks like you thought I was pushing for value. YOU play badly-don't get defensive, and you're welcome for the help.
Good one. It's been years since i have seen a " I know you are but what am i?" kind of comeback except when i watch PeeWee's Big Adventure with my daughter..

So you push like a fool after receiving clear signs.

did you also call the guy a donk? That would be typical of a bad loser and especially typical of a bad loser who KNOWS HE FUCKED UP.
Been playing money poker for 34 years and decided in 2002 to try that TX Holdem game on TV. Then found Pokerstars in Summer 2005. Still not an overall winner but i am on a good trend and nearly there.
 
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SuperDave9x19
Old 04-12-2006, 07:31 PM #25 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nutsinho
I checked the turn because it was the third club! Are you guys even reading the hand history?

And gabe, I'd fold if he bet 30 or something but when he bets 20$ into a 74$ pot it makes me think "well my hand isnt that strong but it beats a king with a good kicker so you should call me with that but if you push ill know you have the boat and fold"
But seriously, he has to call 78 for the 172 in the pot so he's getting closer to 2 to 1 than 3 to 1, and I don't know how you can call with a crappy flush on a board with two pair where i three-bet the flop with a clean image then pushed over his river value-bet...(intelligent) thoughts please?
ok here goes.

your raise on flop is interesting (read as I think it's stupid) since you got nuthing but a gutshot draw. Perhaps you are trying to make it heads up (and you succeeded) but I must ask... heads up with what? The only thing that I think makes "sense" was that you are trying to intimidate the remaining guy.

Here comes the turn. You check. So, considerring the only thing that I saw as "sensible" was intimidation, you dropped the ball. Essentially at this point neither knows what the other has and the betting makes it difficult to judge.

Then comes the river. No help. At All. And you seemed weak on turn. Let's assume that he was also scared by the club and had a pair > deuces (a fair assumption). U were beat if that were the case. Your opponent was NOT dumb to call.

was that clear enough?
Been playing money poker for 34 years and decided in 2002 to try that TX Holdem game on TV. Then found Pokerstars in Summer 2005. Still not an overall winner but i am on a good trend and nearly there.
 
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nutsinho
Old 04-12-2006, 07:42 PM #26 (permalink)  
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you sound like a newb

roll up out my biznass

im done with this thread, lock this shit
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SuperDave9x19
Old 04-12-2006, 07:52 PM #27 (permalink)  
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next time you post a hand history i will automatically tell you that you rock and the other guy is a donk then.

40 yrs old, playing poker since I was 7 for crap money. Not a newb. I am not great either but good enough to observe the obvious.
Been playing money poker for 34 years and decided in 2002 to try that TX Holdem game on TV. Then found Pokerstars in Summer 2005. Still not an overall winner but i am on a good trend and nearly there.
 
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nutsinho
Old 04-12-2006, 08:13 PM #28 (permalink)  
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nigga u gots to WRAP IT UP
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mcatdog
Old 04-12-2006, 08:16 PM #29 (permalink)  
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Let me guess, you called the guy a fish and berated him for at least five minutes for his horrible call.
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nutsinho
Old 04-12-2006, 08:40 PM #30 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mcatdog
Let me guess, you called the guy a fish and berated him for at least five minutes for his horrible call.
i didnt say a word...tables are for playing poker, forums are for discussing poker...
im going to have to ask once again that people do not make blind accusations criticizing other members of the forum.
it's extremely uncalled for.
I already said I'd made my final post in this thread but I was forced to "keep it real" . If I'm flamed again for playing poker rather than the cards in front of me I'll never return to this forum, as the influence of nits who can't think is very -EV.
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Old 04-12-2006, 08:44 PM #31 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by nutsinho
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Originally Posted by mcatdog
Let me guess, you called the guy a fish and berated him for at least five minutes for his horrible call.
i didnt say a word...tables are for playing poker, forums are for discussing poker...
im going to have to ask once again that people do not make blind accusations criticizing other members of the forum.
it's extremely uncalled for.
I already said I'd made my final post in this thread but I was forced to "keep it real" . If I'm flamed again for playing poker rather than the cards in front of me I'll never return to this forum, as the influence of nits who can't think is very -EV.
whats the EV of trying to push a donk off a flush
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piratepeaty
Old 04-12-2006, 08:45 PM #32 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by nutsinho
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Originally Posted by piratepeaty
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Originally Posted by nutsinho
he would have to put me on exactly KJ for any of what you just said to be possible. I would 3bet preflop with KQ+ , call with KTs preflop and muck after two bets on teh flop, fold KTo- and K8s- preflop and 3bet or fold KJ on the flop. So its really unlikely that I ever have a hand worse than a low flush here. I might have a higher flush.
Quote:
playing ABC poker during the brief time I'd been at the table,
You are contradicting yourself.... You fold KTs after 2 bets? You raised with J10! You always raise with KQ+ or everyone raises with KQ+? You fold K10-? You called J10 os! There is no way he can put you on EXACTLY KJ.

Judging by your posts, you play a high variance style of poker. Sometimes you are going to be called by a better hand when you have J high. Stop treating this like a bad beat, you got called by a better hand.

Apparently, villans read was correct.
I meant to illustrate what I would expect villain to think...

And BTW, I think JTo plays better than KTo...

But you do make good points. I just felt like when I haven't been playing out of line this was a really ridiculous call.
I posted this to see if there was something obviously wrong with my line, but unfortunately most of the posts have only been so insightful as to tell me I should have realized my hand wasn't best. LOL
LOL...

And I agree J10 usually plays better, and I even like the raise on the flop given your read.

But on the river you are risking 100 to win 130, You can't win if he calls. He needs to fold ~47% of the time to make this profitable. Does he fold have AND fold a flush that often? Against most players I say 'no'.
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mcatdog
Old 04-12-2006, 08:47 PM #33 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nutsinho
i didnt say a word...tables are for playing poker, forums are for discussing poker...
im going to have to ask once again that people do not make blind accusations criticizing other members of the forum.
it's extremely uncalled for.

I already said I'd made my final post in this thread but I was forced to "keep it real" . If I'm flamed again for playing poker rather than the cards in front of me I'll never return to this forum, as the influence of nits who can't think is very -EV.
If you're not a table coach, I apologize for implying that you are one, but I definitely wasn't the person who initiated the flaming in this thread.
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Old 04-12-2006, 08:49 PM #34 (permalink)  
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"23o plays better than AA, because you usually know where you stand and its easy to fold"

does that sound right?
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piratepeaty
Old 04-12-2006, 08:56 PM #35 (permalink)  
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woah... look at the hatin... try to keep it civil.

I'm I the only one in this thread that thinks this play isn't terrible? Probably why only 7% of all players are long term winners.

I like the turn raise, based on the read. It is high variance, but +EV. It's also a good metagame play, if all goes wrong. I hate playing strong player that will push me with next to nothing.

Against a tight player I like the turn push. If he folds more than 47% of the time, it's profitable.

The play isn't that bad, seriously.
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Old 04-12-2006, 09:00 PM #36 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by piratepeaty
I'm I the only one in this thread that thinks this play isn't terrible? Probably why only 7% of all players are long term losers.
lol
Quote:
Originally Posted by piratepeaty
Against a tight player I like the turn push. If he folds more than 47% of the time, it's profitable.
where did you get the figure 47% from ? the pot is abuot $70, and the villian has $100 behind, which hero covers. it needs to work alot more than 47% to be profitable.
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mcatdog
Old 04-12-2006, 09:04 PM #37 (permalink)  
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Well, yesterday I played a very similar hand against a huge fish, except that I actually did have the full house, and he folded the river which I never thought he would do. So maybe you're right. I probably don't bluff often enough in really big pots (I hardly ever do it).

I never said the play was terrible, I just don't think "OMG how could this fish call me!!!!" is a very productive way to analyze a hand that you played.
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nutsinho
Old 04-12-2006, 09:04 PM #38 (permalink)  
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I had no read that he was a donk. Whats the EV of trying to push a player who appears solid off a flush here?

Peaty, again good analysis. Obviously the whole hand played out on reads, and I was very sure that he had a flush based on his river bet rather than a boat. Given the action, a naked 9 or 3 makes very little sense. K9 or quads make sense, but why then is he betting only 27% of the pot on the river? It seems he would try to get more value out of it than that. So basically he's got to fold 47% of the time, and I'd seen nothing donkish from him so I thought it was a good push.
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piratepeaty
Old 04-12-2006, 09:43 PM #39 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by piratepeaty
I'm I the only one in this thread that thinks this play isn't terrible? Probably why only 7% of all players are long term losers.
lol
Quote:
Originally Posted by piratepeaty
Against a tight player I like the turn push. If he folds more than 47% of the time, it's profitable.
where did you get the figure 47% from ? the pot is abuot $70, and the villian has $100 behind, which hero covers. it needs to work alot more than 47% to be profitable.
That should say 'winners'.

I screwed up the math. The pot before villian bets on the river is 74. Then he bets 20, making it 94. So he is risking $100 to win $94. He needs to fold 52% of the time to make this break even. This is how you calculate

(amount we win) - (amount we lose) = for break even it should equal 0
(x*94) - (y*100) = 0
94x = 100y
0.94x = y
we also know x+y=1 therefore y = 1-x
y = the probability we lose
x = the probability we win
1.94x=1
x=51.546%

Therefore he needs to fold more than 51.54% to make this +EV.
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gabe
Old 04-12-2006, 09:45 PM #40 (permalink)  
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"Against a tight player I like the turn push."

i thought you meant turn push.

if you meant river push, i dont think a good tight player is ever betting the river without something that can call a raise, unless he is bluffing, which i dont think he is doing 52% of the time.
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piratepeaty
Old 04-12-2006, 09:48 PM #41 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nutsinho
I had no read that he was a donk. Whats the EV of trying to push a player who appears solid off a flush here?

Peaty, again good analysis. Obviously the whole hand played out on reads, and I was very sure that he had a flush based on his river bet rather than a boat. Given the action, a naked 9 or 3 makes very little sense. K9 or quads make sense, but why then is he betting only 27% of the pot on the river? It seems he would try to get more value out of it than that. So basically he's got to fold 47% of the time, and I'd seen nothing donkish from him so I thought it was a good push.
sorry, should be 52%... screwed up the pot size the first time I calculated it. But it doesn't change too much. It still comes down to him having to fold about half the time, which is read dependant. It is high variance as I have said before, but still may be +EV.
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piratepeaty
Old 04-12-2006, 09:50 PM #42 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by gabe
"Against a tight player I like the turn push."

i thought you meant turn push.

if you meant river push, i dont think a good tight player is ever betting the river without something that can call a raise, unless he is bluffing, which i dont think he is doing 52% of the time.
damn... i'm full of mistakes in this thread.

yes the river push. I've seen tight players bet fold in this spot.

oh, and tight doesn't imply good.
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Miffed22001
Old 04-12-2006, 10:20 PM #43 (permalink)  
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this play is a great example of why you push made hands hard against donks.
Saying that im not critical of the hand, only a fucking ejit calls that river with a flush.
Add to buddy list, carry on.
You'll make heaps off this guy fo sure

Lets be honest too, what does he think your three betting on the flop? Ace high?
Sod the odds and math, opps river call is downright horrible unless he was certain he had you beat and only H@l or a fish with 'TEH FLUSH' knows that through skill or stupidity.
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salsa4ever
Old 04-13-2006, 12:55 AM #44 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nutsinho
Quote:
Originally Posted by mcatdog
Let me guess, you called the guy a fish and berated him for at least five minutes for his horrible call.
i didnt say a word...tables are for playing poker, forums are for discussing poker...
im going to have to ask once again that people do not make blind accusations criticizing other members of the forum.
it's extremely uncalled for.
I already said I'd made my final post in this thread but I was forced to "keep it real" . If I'm flamed again for playing poker rather than the cards in front of me I'll never return to this forum, as the influence of nits who can't think is very -EV.
I still stand by my opinion that villain's call is at worst defensible and and best correct.

Remember *I* don't know that you will 3-bet with KQ or call with K10 or whatever... There are plenty of people who flat call AK and some who raise K10s. Remember you just said you're trying to represent K9.

The play on all the streets just doesn't look like a 9x or a 3x or K9. And 99 and 33 are unlikely enough I would pay it off with flush getting 2.5-1 odds.

However, the fact that villain's call was correct does not neccessarily mean the push is incorrect. Remember you can both be correct because of the money already in the pot (e.g. in limit betting increases the equity of the TPTK but calling with the flush draw is still correct). I will not categorically say that your play is wrong, only that I would not make it because it is a huge increase in variance for debatable value. But look at my post and you'll see I never said your bluff was shit
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well courtie, since we're both clear, would you accept an invitation for some unprotected sex?
 
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dalecooper
Old 04-13-2006, 05:37 PM #45 (permalink)  
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I like the play up until the river, which IMO is a real grey area. It needs to be successful a high % of the time (over 50%), which means you're hoping that A. he's not a donk, B. he's not a good player who might suss out your bluff, *and* C. he's not sitting on K9 himself, which is improbable but not impossible. I don't like to make these kinds of moves on players I don't know are thinking, tight players - and they have to be at least some of both. Without a read I am inclined to just drop it.

Now a few comments for SuperDave:

Quote:
Originally Posted by SuperDave9x19
your raise on flop is interesting (read as I think it's stupid) since you got nuthing but a gutshot draw. Perhaps you are trying to make it heads up (and you succeeded) but I must ask... heads up with what? The only thing that I think makes "sense" was that you are trying to intimidate the remaining guy.
That's the point he's making. Heads up, with position, against someone you are pretty sure is on a draw is ALWAYS a desirable position to be in - regardless of your hole cards. You are fixated on hero's hole cards which isn't the point at all here. It's well beside the point, in fact. He knows going in that he has at best something like seven clean outs.

Quote:
Here comes the turn. You check. So, considerring the only thing that I saw as "sensible" was intimidation, you dropped the ball. Essentially at this point neither knows what the other has and the betting makes it difficult to judge.
Hero has already stated he put the other guy on a flush draw based on the flop and his min-raise, which means on the turn he puts him on a made flush. Bluffing in that spot is asinine. The ball dropped itself. Hero could have AK or K9 and would still check behind on the turn.

Quote:
Then comes the river. No help. At All. And you seemed weak on turn. Let's assume that he was also scared by the club and had a pair > deuces (a fair assumption). U were beat if that were the case. Your opponent was NOT dumb to call.
That's a bad analysis. First of all, the 9 on the river is no help to what YOU see in the hero's hand, but to an opponent who may put hero on a 9 (e.g. K9) this is a clear scare card. He may still call because he's a donk or call because he smells something rotten in Denmark, but your analysis that the card was "no help at all" is non-insightful; it's helpful in that it may have helped the hand he's repping, and probably didn't help his opponent, who weak-bets the river with what is almost certainly a made flush.

Second, if you are putting opponent possibly on a pair > deuces (which we know he didn't have, but I'll play along), your analysis is *still* bad. He's ahead of the hero's missed draw, but he doesn't know that's what he has. Against a king, a nine, a three, or any higher pocket pair, he would still be behind. I would venture to say that a call with any pocket pair here except for kings/threes/nines, and maybe aces, would be terrible; and a call with a made flush (what he actually called with) is borderline - based on the hand history, and if we didn't know what the hero held.

A footnote - without a read, as the hero, I would not raise on the river. But without a read, as the villain, I would also fold the river. I think both players made marginal mistakes on the last street, assuming the information we have here (that the players didn't know each other at all) was correct.
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johnny_fish
Old 04-13-2006, 05:57 PM #46 (permalink)  
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I will not categorically say that your play is wrong, only that I would not make it because it is a huge increase in variance for debatable value.
It's a cash game. Variance is not an issue.
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piratepeaty
Old 04-13-2006, 09:15 PM #47 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by johnny_fish
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Originally Posted by salsa4ever
I will not categorically say that your play is wrong, only that I would not make it because it is a huge increase in variance for debatable value.
It's a cash game. Variance is not an issue.
Of course, it is a issue (well, to some). Many people don't like playing a high variance style. Many people have a different loss threshold and would prefer a more conservative style. It's also very easy to turn from a high variance style, to plain chip spewing.
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salsa4ever
Old 04-14-2006, 11:21 AM #48 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by piratepeaty
Quote:
Originally Posted by johnny_fish
Quote:
Originally Posted by salsa4ever
I will not categorically say that your play is wrong, only that I would not make it because it is a huge increase in variance for debatable value.
It's a cash game. Variance is not an issue.
Of course, it is a issue (well, to some). Many people don't like playing a high variance style. Many people have a different loss threshold and would prefer a more conservative style. It's also very easy to turn from a high variance style, to plain chip spewing.
CAPM Model: basic tenet of finance is that if I'm going to be taking risk (increasing my variance) then I want some kind of return.

Remember I am not risk neutral. I'm risk tolerant, but I am not indifferent between a high variance outcome and a low variance outcome IF THE EV IS THE SAME OR VERY CLOSE TO THE SAME. I accept variance AS A NECCESSARY TRADE OFF for making some +EV plays, not because it's not an issue.
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well courtie, since we're both clear, would you accept an invitation for some unprotected sex?
 
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Miffed22001
Old 04-14-2006, 04:18 PM #49 (permalink)  
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I still stand by my opinion that villain's call is at worst defensible and at best correct.
I dont think ive every more vehemently disagreed with any statement.
This statement is, to me, saying call an all in on a board that has four to a straight with a pair.
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salsa4ever
Old 04-17-2006, 10:51 AM #50 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Miffed22001
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I still stand by my opinion that villain's call is at worst defensible and at best correct.
I dont think ive every more vehemently disagreed with any statement.
This statement is, to me, saying call an all in on a board that has four to a straight with a pair.
If you think villain's call is wrong, then doesn't that make pushing correct? If pushing is correct, doesn't that make villain's call correct?

You can't look at it in isolation

If the pairs were AA and KK then of course you're right
If it's a 200 bet into a 10 pot then yeah
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