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What's your read on CO?

  
 
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koolmoe
Old 06-01-2005, 10:04 PM     Post subject: What's your read on CO? #1 (permalink)  
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MP1 is limping into almost every pot and betting every flop.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (9 handed) converter

SB ($188)
BB ($90)
UTG ($317.75)
UTG+1 ($349.2)
MP1 ($220.5)
Hero ($231.35)
MP3 ($308.7)
CO ($195)
Button ($127.88)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Q, Q. SB posts a blind of $1.
UTG calls $2, 1 fold, MP1 calls $2, Hero raises to $10, 1 fold, CO calls $10, 3 folds, UTG calls $8, MP1 calls $8.

Flop: ($43) 4, 3, 6 (4 players)
UTG checks, MP1 bets $20, Hero raises to $60, CO calls $60, UTG folds, MP1 folds.

Turn: ($183) K (2 players)
Hero checks, CO calls $125 (All-In), Hero ??.
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a500lbgorilla
Old 06-01-2005, 10:12 PM #2 (permalink)  
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Haha, wow.

I've got no clue.

A set. Possible straight. AK. make more sense then a crazily played JJ or TT.

-'rilla

Smithers, use the amnesia ray.
You mean the revolver, sir?
Precisely.
 
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dalecooper
Old 06-01-2005, 10:13 PM #3 (permalink)  
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AK or maybe KQ? I don't like your check on the turn, it sends a very clear message that you can be bought out of the hand. CO may not even have anything except a draw of some sort (i.e. A5 suited, pocket 5s).
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koolmoe
Old 06-01-2005, 10:25 PM #4 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dalecooper
AK or maybe KQ? I don't like your check on the turn, it sends a very clear message that you can be bought out of the hand. CO may not even have anything except a draw of some sort (i.e. A5 suited, pocket 5s).
Exactly...
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FishMagician
Old 06-01-2005, 10:45 PM #5 (permalink)  
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What was the plan when you checked? To call a reasonable bet? This isn't a reasonable bet, so I think fold here. I would definitely bet here, though, to avoid this sticky situation.

I think he has 666. I have no idea why I think that, but that's what I'm going with.
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PokerPatNEU
Old 06-01-2005, 10:51 PM #6 (permalink)  
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I don't really see A 5 or 5 5 making that call on the flop. On the flop from his point of view, its pretty easy to put Hero on a big pair. In my opinion, i put him on the set, or someone very ballsy setting himself up for a big bluff on the turn, knowing you'd put him on the set.


It's gonna be real hard to get your Q's to showdown without putting a lot more money in, and to me it looks like you're already beat, so I don't think check/folding the turn is a bad idea. If you bet the turn, and he calls, what then on the river? I don't like my Q's after that call by CO on the flop and I can't blame you for checking the turn and then giving them up.
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BobbySalami
Old 06-01-2005, 11:00 PM #7 (permalink)  
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Has to be a set....that seems like how I would play 66's or 44's from CO. I think he bet out guarding against any straight draws on the flop......and then smooth called ya not giving you credit for the straight...

Or else this guy is a moron with some AK, or Kx garbage hand....
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Old 06-01-2005, 11:03 PM #8 (permalink)  
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His call on the flop really does frighten the life out of me.

What hands could he possibly have that you beat here. JJ/TT? Doubtful. Horribly played AK? Doubtful.

Set? Probable. I think his call on the flop really sends the warning signals out that you have run into a monster here.

This is a real mess of a hand in conclusion, I'm just looking to get out.
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koolmoe
Old 06-02-2005, 12:30 AM #9 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FishMagician
What was the plan when you checked? To call a reasonable bet? This isn't a reasonable bet, so I think fold here. I would definitely bet here, though, to avoid this sticky situation.
I had already decided I was going to showdown before I checked.
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sejje
Old 06-02-2005, 12:52 AM #10 (permalink)  
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I say set, sixes.

If he puts you on an overpair, though, I don't understand the turn play. He's going to fold stuff like JJ or QQ there, usually, and get called by KK of course.

That's a hard one, but I'd have to guess you're way behind at this point. I don't think he's doing that with a five. If he is, my hat goes off to him.
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a500lbgorilla
Old 06-02-2005, 12:53 AM #11 (permalink)  
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The more I look at it, the more I hate the lead out check on the turn. If he pushes, it opens the whole door to absolute confusion.

-'rilla

Smithers, use the amnesia ray.
You mean the revolver, sir?
Precisely.
 
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koolmoe
Old 06-02-2005, 01:17 AM #12 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla
The more I look at it, the more I hate the lead out check on the turn. If he pushes, it opens the whole door to absolute confusion.

-'rilla
Some questions to consider:

What does he think I have? Consider MP1.
How likely is it that I am ahead?
What reasonable amount can I bet that doesn't pot commit me if I am behind?
If I check to a flopped set, what kind of bet is he likely to make?
How can I get him to put chips in when I am ahead?
What cards do I fear on the river?

I'm not sure if I butchered this hand or not, but these were things I considered when he called my flop raise.
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PokerPatNEU
Old 06-02-2005, 01:31 AM #13 (permalink)  
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I put MP1 on a mid range over pair, who put you on the set after your flop bet and wisely got out. Unless CO is either real bad, or real good and setting himself up to bluff the turn with that AI (unlikely), you're way behind. Either way i don't think i would make that call on the turn. What wound up happening?


edit: i think you fear every card on the river besides another Q
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koolmoe
Old 06-02-2005, 01:45 AM #14 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PokerPatNEU
I put MP1 on a mid range over pair, who put you on the set after your flop bet and wisely got out.
I put MP1 on two cards. His flop bet means he might have caught a piece of the flop, or he thinks I missed badly. CO knows this too.
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PokerPatNEU
Old 06-02-2005, 01:48 AM #15 (permalink)  
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I'm not sure what you're getting at by saying "Consider MP1" then . In any case, i think its pretty obvious to CO on the flop what you're holding, i think almost anyone paying attention would put you on QQ/KK/AA. Thats why i said he's either got you beat, or setting you up for a big bluff by calling that flop bet. I am real interested to find out how this one turned out though.
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FishMagician
Old 06-02-2005, 01:51 AM #16 (permalink)  
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Quote:
What does he think I have? Consider MP1.
He might think you have AK and just hit, so he figures he's springing his trap now. He also might think that you have AQ, AJ, QQ-TT and he can now make you lay it down.

Quote:
How likely is it that I am ahead?
I think unlikely, since the only thing you beat is a draw.


Quote:
What reasonable amount can I bet that doesn't pot commit me if I am behind?
This is definitely something I hadn't considered, and it makes checking look better. I would still bet, $75, but now I can see where checking makes alot more sense.


Quote:
If I check to a flopped set, what kind of bet is he likely to make?
1/2 - 2/3 pot, or check behind.

Quote:
How can I get him to put chips in when I am ahead?
If you are sure you're ahead, induce a bluff by checking, I just don't see how you can be sure you're ahead at this point.

Quote:
What cards do I fear on the river?
I think if you do have him beat, he probably has 55, so I guess you fear a 2 7 or 5.

The more I look at this hand the less I know what this guy has...end the suspense!!
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koolmoe
Old 06-02-2005, 01:52 AM #17 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PokerPatNEU
What wound up happening?
Since you asked...I was lucky.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (9 handed) converter

SB ($188)
BB ($90)
UTG ($317.75)
UTG+1 ($349.2)
MP1 ($220.5)
Hero ($231.35)
MP3 ($308.7)
CO ($195)
Button ($127.88)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Q, Q. SB posts a blind of $1.
UTG calls $2, 1 fold, MP1 calls $2, Hero raises to $10, 1 fold, CO calls $10, 3 folds, UTG calls $8, MP1 calls $8.

Flop: ($43) 4, 3, 6 (4 players)
UTG checks, MP1 bets $20, Hero raises to $60, CO calls $60, UTG folds, MP1 folds.

Turn: ($183) K (2 players)
Hero checks, CO calls $125 (All-In), Hero calls $125.

River: ($433) 5 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $433

Results in white below:
Hero has Qh Qd (one pair, queens).
CO has Tc Ts (one pair, tens).
Outcome: Hero wins $433.
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FishMagician
Old 06-02-2005, 01:54 AM #18 (permalink)  
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Holy crap was I wrong by alot. NH koolmoe.
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koolmoe
Old 06-02-2005, 02:09 AM #19 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PokerPatNEU
I'm not sure what you're getting at by saying "Consider MP1" then
What I mean is that MP1 plays almost every hand and bets every flop. CO knows I will raise his flop bet with a wide range of hands. I don't need a big pocket pair to do it.
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PokerPatNEU
Old 06-02-2005, 02:18 AM     Post subject: Re: What's your read on CO? #20 (permalink)  
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Hmm woops i didn't read the

Quote:
Originally Posted by koolmoe
MP1 is limping into almost every pot and betting every flop.
I just skipp to the good stuff
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dsaxton
Old 06-02-2005, 03:14 AM #21 (permalink)  
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I think check-folding is a good play. Unless he's an idiot, he probably recognizes that you have a big pair, and so his call seems to signal that he can beat an overpair. When a player calls a bet and a raise from a preflop raiser on the flop, they've almost always flopped something very powerful. I think he probably flopped a set.
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a500lbgorilla
Old 06-02-2005, 03:19 AM #22 (permalink)  
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I'd call. He obviously has TT.

This one did have me stumped.

-'rilla

Smithers, use the amnesia ray.
You mean the revolver, sir?
Precisely.
 
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koolmoe
Old 06-02-2005, 03:48 AM #23 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla
I'd call. He obviously has TT.


This hand is obviously one of the reasons I fare better at limit than NL...
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koolmoe
Old 06-03-2005, 12:27 PM #24 (permalink)  
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I ran some numbers, and if I put CO on any PP JJ or below, I have to push the turn because I don't want 22, 55, or 77 taking a free card. So in the end, checking the turn there is really bad unless I know he will reliably push on the turn to a check (which I did not).

In the end, I was lucky he tried to push me off the pot. What makes it worse is that of all the hands I am ahead of on the turn, 55 is the most likely hand to have called my flop raise, and I absolutely don't want that hand taking a free card.
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