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What would you do here and why?

  
 
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spino1i
Old 07-13-2005, 06:19 AM     Post subject: What would you do here and why? #1 (permalink)  
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Villain is TAG, nothing else to say about him

***** Hand History for Game 2355717531 *****
$200 NL Texas Hold'em - Wednesday, July 13, 02:21:20 EDT 2005
Table Table 48840 (Real Money)
Seat 10 is the button
Total number of players : 9
Seat 2: kingsiren ( $507.12 )
Seat 5: DoingMyNails ( $257.80 )
Seat 6: slogslayer ( $211.72 )
Seat 7: p0kerh0e ( $199.55 )
Seat 1: Kingfish__ ( $311.88 )
Seat 9: ZoinkedOut ( $74.05 )
Seat 8: Deuceraghi ( $194.95 )
Seat 10: BtownJay ( $236.70 )
Seat 3: JoPiscapo113 ( $113 )
Kingfish__ posts small blind [$1].
kingsiren posts big blind [$2].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Kingfish__ [ 8s 6s ]
JoPiscapo113 folds.
DoingMyNails folds.
slogslayer folds.
p0kerh0e folds.
Deuceraghi folds.
ZoinkedOut folds.
BtownJay folds.
Kingfish__ raises [$5].
kingsiren calls [$4].
** Dealing Flop ** [ 8h, 9s, 6c ]
Kingfish__ checks.
kingsiren bets [$10].
Kingfish__ raises [$30].
kingsiren raises [$140].
Kingfish__ ???
BR now: $106900
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Dassin
Old 07-13-2005, 06:50 AM #2 (permalink)  

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If he flopped a straight, you've got 4 outs for a boat, and 9 for a flush.
48% chance of hitting one, and if not you have 2 pair. With those odds I'd probably call, but my bankroll is sucking right now. My advice sucks :P
 
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spino1i
Old 07-13-2005, 07:17 AM #3 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dassin
If he flopped a straight, you've got 4 outs for a boat, and 9 for a flush.
48% chance of hitting one, and if not you have 2 pair. With those odds I'd probably call, but my bankroll is sucking right now. My advice sucks :P
i dont have 9 outs to a flush
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WhiteFingers
Old 07-13-2005, 12:56 PM #4 (permalink)  
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Fold.
Two pair, middle and bottom is not the best hand on a flop like that.
Especially with the TAGG Villain calling you preflop raise, another intresting factor is that the Villain is not afraid to reraise your check raise on the flop. Check raising is ususally a show of strength and indicates you have a good hand yet he is not afraid to reraise your checkraise.
I think he made a set on the flop. Dont think he would have TPTK in that situation and call your raise, dont think he would have flopped the straight either. Since you raised preflop and he called would have had to have 10,7 or 5,7. Dont think he would make this call preflop with those hands.
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SinkRox
Old 07-13-2005, 01:41 PM #5 (permalink)  
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i put him on a set, 99.

AA, KK and QQ are obviously very unlikely... maybe he has JJ and this is probably the only likely holding you beat?

Other than that you beat a bluff if he thinks you have AK/AQ unimproved but this is quite unlikely due to your check-raise (not a common way to play ak/aq unimproved)

You made a simular post a few days back (maybe you hade overpair instead of 2pair), where you called at the flop and the villan did have the set (3's i think?) I think this is a situation where you can sniff the set and make a disciplined fold.

Another consideration is you both have fairly deep stacks and if you dont fold your stack will deffinatly be allin on this hand.
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dalecooper
Old 07-13-2005, 02:13 PM #6 (permalink)  
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I'm folding like it's laundry day. This hand is perfect for losing a lot of money on.
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a500lbgorilla
Old 07-13-2005, 03:18 PM #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dalecooper
I'm folding like it's laundry day. This hand is perfect for losing a lot of money on.
Is everyone ignoring the fact that this stems from a blind war were ops typically play harder with less (even nothing) against lags in a pissing contest?

I think this is a great chance to flat call, check/raise unless the turn is a big scare card like a non spade T or 9.

-'rilla
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dalecooper
Old 07-13-2005, 03:37 PM #8 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla
Is everyone ignoring the fact that this stems from a blind war were ops typically play harder with less (even nothing) against lags in a pissing contest?
I *am* ignoring that, on purpose. Our guy here was classified as TAgg and he fired in a $110 raise after being check-raised on a very obvious danger flop. If this is really a pissing match, this player REALLY likes walking a thin line. Also, how do you flat call that raise (half your stack or close to it) with that board? If a non-spade ten, nine, or five comes down you're in bad shape, and there's 9 of them. Basically any non-spade overcard is dangerous as well, because it's very possible this guy is on an overpair or something like A9 or K9. That's 1/3 of the deck or more that I don't really want to see on the turn. I would hate giving a free card with that board and after that raise. If you think you're best, push on the flop - just my humble opinion, of course. But I'm definitely folding that. I think the guy has a set. Or something like 89 suited.
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Greedo017
Old 07-13-2005, 07:37 PM #9 (permalink)  
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 very hard to say. b/c of the blind war aspect i think he could have anything. my opinion is skewed because just thinking about calling this with this hand makes me uncomfortable because its just a lot of money to me, but i have to think that given no other info about him there is a pretty decent chance he is just pulling a move on you, and either pushing now or stop-n-going would be the smart thing. there's nothing that says he has to have the set or two pair to pull this. i just can't picture what he'll be flipping over here that you're beating, maybe ten ten or a crappy one pair, i dunno. its definitely very risky, i wouldn't be even a little surprised if you were up against 89 a set or the straight, but i hear at 1/2 people like to gamb0l it up? my head is doing this right now
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Dassin
Old 07-13-2005, 07:40 PM #10 (permalink)  

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Quote:
Originally Posted by spino1i
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dassin
If he flopped a straight, you've got 4 outs for a boat, and 9 for a flush.
48% chance of hitting one, and if not you have 2 pair. With those odds I'd probably call, but my bankroll is sucking right now. My advice sucks :P
i dont have 9 outs to a flush
I told you my advice sucks, I also can't read :P
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a500lbgorilla
Old 07-13-2005, 08:48 PM #11 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dalecooper
Quote:
Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla
Is everyone ignoring the fact that this stems from a blind war were ops typically play harder with less (even nothing) against lags in a pissing contest?
I *am* ignoring that, on purpose. Our guy here was classified as TAgg and he fired in a $110 raise after being check-raised on a very obvious danger flop. If this is really a pissing match, this player REALLY likes walking a thin line. Also, how do you flat call that raise (half your stack or close to it) with that board? If a non-spade ten, nine, or five comes down you're in bad shape, and there's 9 of them. Basically any non-spade overcard is dangerous as well, because it's very possible this guy is on an overpair or something like A9 or K9. That's 1/3 of the deck or more that I don't really want to see on the turn. I would hate giving a free card with that board and after that raise. If you think you're best, push on the flop - just my humble opinion, of course. But I'm definitely folding that. I think the guy has a set. Or something like 89 suited.
I've always been described as a TAgg and I am very capable of make this play with top pair as op.

-'rilla
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lowBoy
Old 07-13-2005, 10:11 PM #12 (permalink)  
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If it is a blind war, anything's possible... agreed that some TAGs can play like this with top pair, but I think it's a fold. Yeah it sucks to lose $35 on this, but chances are he's got you. 98, 96, or one of three sets are all probable, he definitely likes his hand or his chances of you folding.

Did you lay down some hands in similar circumstances? Did you guys have bad blood before this? How were you perceived? If you think he viewed you as a bit of a pushover at times, then I would consider firing back at him.
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SinkRox
Old 07-14-2005, 04:03 PM #13 (permalink)  
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spino how long you gonna keep us all in suspense over this, would also like to hear some of your thoughts upon the situation especially as you know of it most (reads etc)
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SinkRox
Old 07-19-2005, 06:46 PM #14 (permalink)  
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bump? what was the outcome spino?
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journey075
Old 07-19-2005, 09:48 PM #15 (permalink)  
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definite call/raise. i like raising more. i might even push this flop.

im paying off a set and i feel he has TT/JJ more than anything. maybe tpgk.
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k8s
Old 07-20-2005, 12:30 AM #16 (permalink)  
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Bottom two pair on that board is very vulnerable and not very good. He could have 66, 88, 99, 98, 96, 57, 107. 9x and any overpair also have good redraws with the board pairing. I think you're behind almost all the time here, and when you're not, he probably still has 25% chance to redraw.
 
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Silly String
Old 07-21-2005, 01:51 PM #17 (permalink)  
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I agree with those above. I don't think he makes that move without a set. I would not believe playing TP that way to be profitable over the long run unless you advertise an ultra-tight table image and everyone at the table knows it.
Calling that preflop raise is very possible with 66 or 88, hoping to catch a set and destack a TPTK or hoping to catch a low flop they can bet at with confidence and take down right there .
With 99 you might get re-raised preflop b/c they need more info, and they might sense a blind steal from you. But people hoping for trips probably play as stated before.

So spino1i, what happened?
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a500lbgorilla
Old 07-21-2005, 02:42 PM #18 (permalink)  
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Stop being so results oriented.

-'rilla
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Lukie
Old 07-21-2005, 10:22 PM #19 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by k8s
Bottom two pair on that board is very vulnerable and not very good. He could have 66, 88, 99, 98, 96, 57, 107. 9x and any overpair also have good redraws with the board pairing. I think you're behind almost all the time here, and when you're not, he probably still has 25% chance to redraw.
I agree. I think this is a clear fold.
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kingsiren
Old 02-12-2006, 10:23 PM     Post subject: heres the outcome #20 (permalink)  

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Kingfish__ is all-In.
kingsiren calls [$155.88].
** Dealing Turn ** [ 2c ]
** Dealing River ** [ Tc ]
kingsiren shows [ 8c, 8d ] three of a kind, eights.
Kingfish__ doesn't show [ 8s, 6s ] two pairs, eights and sixes.
kingsiren wins $620.76 from the main pot with three of a kind, eights.
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