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What do you think

  
 
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Waggho
Old 01-05-2005, 07:43 PM     Post subject: What do you think #1 (permalink)  
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I didn´t get the hand history, but I think I´ll remember it:

Got AQ, raised 4 big blinds, everybody folded but the guy to the right of me, who raised to 12 bb's. I call.

Flop comes A Q 5, all clubs. Guy checks, I bet 30 bb's. Guy calls.
Turn comes 3s. Guiy checks, I bet 30 bb's. Guy calls.
River comes 2c. Guy is all-in (27 bb's).

My turn.

Results later. No reads, unfortunately.
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Corey
Old 01-05-2005, 07:50 PM #2 (permalink)  
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hes either got the straight, flush, or straight flush.

fold imo.


Corey
 
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Fortune 500
Old 01-05-2005, 07:54 PM #3 (permalink)  
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He might have the straight, the flush, or the SF. Highly unlikely. I think your only three legit quesses are AA, KK, or AK. If I'm you, I'm going broke finding out if he's got the rockets.
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bspahn
Old 01-05-2005, 07:57 PM #4 (permalink)  
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your position preflop I think is quite important, were you CO and bet with the AQ? In general I wouldn't go much more than 4xBB so your raise is justified, however the triple raise after that would make me fold in most cases - unless I knew good infos on the raiser.

Knowing you have top two pair on the flop you really have to wonder why the guy calls your very large bet - what could he possibly have ? Would he re-raise with AQ as well preflop? He might call the flop with KK but it's unlikely I'd say having the Ace there... I'd put him on something like QQ or maybe even AA.. although there is a chance he could have something like AK where the King is of clubs, although with no improvement on the turn would he really want to stay in with just top Pair ?

The fourth club is very scary on the river and it's likely his flush is good or in the other case he's not worried about you having a flush (if he had trip Q's for instance)
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bspahn
Old 01-05-2005, 07:59 PM #5 (permalink)  
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i highly doubt he'd have something like 34clubs re-raising preflop like that..
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a500lbgorilla
Old 01-05-2005, 08:27 PM #6 (permalink)  
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KK with the K of clubs.

Fold.

-'rilla

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Waggho
Old 01-05-2005, 08:51 PM #7 (permalink)  
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Result: Folded.

I guess my preflop call was a bit unjustified, it just felt as if he tried to steal my money... getting two pair on the flop I got really happy, until I saw they were all clubs... The turn and the river weren´t exactly helping me either.
Except my PF call, what do you think about how I played it?
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bspahn
Old 01-05-2005, 10:36 PM #8 (permalink)  
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Gorilla, whats your reasoning for the KK?
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a500lbgorilla
Old 01-05-2005, 10:49 PM #9 (permalink)  
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Reraises preflop. Scared of the ace, plays it like the nut draw (poorly, I might add). I can't conceive of a hand that would reraise preflop and slow down so drastically on that flop. AK would want to protect. A set would definitely want to protect and I don't see two clubs reraising preflop.

-'rilla

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whileone
Old 01-05-2005, 10:49 PM #10 (permalink)  
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One thought would be, there are only a few hands that are worthy of pre flop re raises.
The ace on the board is the scare card, he is capable of reraisning, but takes his foot off the gas. He may have the best hand if the ace isn't paired, That big honkin raise may have come from TPTK or a set. The guy is thinking, "But i have KK!!!! i can't let this go! well heck, i got the nut flush draw." *cringe* and calls. and calls.

Of course he might have had nothing, and was just repping the flush. Takes some willpower to call down bets that big on a bluff tho.
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bspahn
Old 01-05-2005, 10:56 PM #11 (permalink)  
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I think I see what rilla's saying... if he had AA or AK he'd very likely bet out due to the flush potential, and see if he's re-raised right ?
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a500lbgorilla
Old 01-05-2005, 11:35 PM #12 (permalink)  
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Yuuuup.

Bet to protect and for information.

-'rilla

Smithers, use the amnesia ray.
You mean the revolver, sir?
Precisely.
 
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bspahn
Old 01-05-2005, 11:59 PM #13 (permalink)  
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one thing i was just thinking is the play on the turn. the guy seems to have little desire to protect on both flop and turn, and he didnt check-raise either... at this stage the pot would be ~ 90BB and your bet with top two pair is now only 1/3 of the pot so once it gets to him he's putting in 30/120 ~ 25% reasonably odds for another K or the flush ?
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