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Weird turned set, but I just call down (25nl)

  
 
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eugmac
Old 02-28-2008, 09:46 PM     Post subject: Weird turned set, but I just call down (25nl) #1 (permalink)  
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 SB was 16/4, so I was a bit concerned about the turn lead when the possible flush comes. Then again in retrospect, perhaps he bets a lot more than that. Whadda ya reckon?

$0.12/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
9 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($23.75)
UTG 1 ($17.10)
MP1 ($7.62)
MP2 ($36.19)
MP3 ($40.67)
Hero ($25.16)
BTN ($22.76)
SB ($22.97)
BB ($19.63)

Pre-flop: ($0.37, 9 players) Hero is CO
1 fold, UTG 1 raises to $0.75, 3 folds, Hero calls $0.75, 1 fold, SB calls $0.63, BB calls $0.5

Flop: ($3, 4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG 1 checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($3, 4 players)
SB bets $2, 2 folds, Hero calls $2

River: ($7, 2 players)
SB bets $2, Hero calls $2

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d0zer
Old 02-28-2008, 10:22 PM #2 (permalink)  
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 His river bet certainly doesn't suggest 'flush'. It suggests pair/2pr/failed draw afraid to waste too much money if they're up against a flush.

A 16/4 probably won't call a raise without the flush, so the passive line is probably how I'd play it. I might raise the river if he was more stationey and think he'd look me up with 2pr or less, but I think the flush out there's killed your action against any semi-thinking player...
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badgers
Old 02-28-2008, 11:38 PM #3 (permalink)  
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Definately raise/ call the turn for me. There's so much worse in his bet/shoving range such as sets (failed c/r on flop), wierd two pairs etc. You are also letting some of his range draw to a flush by calling, (think AhJ).
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pankfish
Old 02-29-2008, 04:30 AM #4 (permalink)  
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Imo you have to raise that river. Raise to at least $6. He will call with two pair, maybe any decent Jack. If he comes back over the top then he has the flush, but just calling here is screaming that you are playing with scared money.
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Fnord
Old 02-29-2008, 05:32 AM #5 (permalink)  
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Bet the flop for value.

I would raise the river for value too.
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Pelion
Old 02-29-2008, 10:03 AM #6 (permalink)  
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Given that SB and BB might be checking Jx to the raiser, and the only other hands that probably call us are flush draws which probably have an overcard, a bet on the flop looks pretty thin / spew.


It doesnt look like he has a flush though. I raise the river.
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eugmac
Old 02-29-2008, 03:17 PM #7 (permalink)  
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 I'm gonna go ahead and quote one of our regs who I was chatting to last night on IRC.

Quote:
23:50:21 < eugmac> at the time i was thinkin "omg flush but i call for implied odds!"
23:50:33 < HalvSame> yeah
23:50:44 < HalvSame> so do you fold to 7$ on the river?
23:51:21 < eugmac> dunno :/
23:51:43 < HalvSame> woops
23:51:54 < HalvSame> should def know that before calling the turn
23:52:20 < eugmac> i woulda prolly called down
23:52:25 < eugmac> knowing me.
23:53:25 < HalvSame> yeah if I flatted the turn then I'd have called psb on the river too
23:53:40 < HalvSame> important thing to realize then is that you dont only call turn for implieds
23:54:35 < HalvSame> it doesnt really change the actual call, but then you have to think about the other reasons as well
23:55:33 < eugmac> please elaborate
23:55:38 < HalvSame> then you start thinking "well, he could be bluffing or valuebetting worse"
23:56:38 < HalvSame> that's what you say when you say that I'll call both streets but will raise if I hit my boat
23:58:23 < HalvSame> so if we then piece together a range for him that includes enough hands we beat that we can call the river UI, we can start evaluating the merits of flat calling and picking off a bluff/worse hands valuebet on the river vs the merits of putting in a valueraise on the turn
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pankfish
Old 02-29-2008, 05:15 PM #8 (permalink)  
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On the river the villain is making a defensive bet to name his price for the showdown. He has a strong hand and is scared you are going to bluff more than he is comfortable calling, and is also pretty sure you have the flush. I'm not shoving over the top but I don't think the villain can help but call a small raise here.

Is this the kind of opponent you think is going to come back over the top with a bluff? If he comes back over the top you are beat and it's an easy fold. You are two scared of a flush imo. I can't see a flush betting less than 1/3 pot on the river.
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pokerfan
Old 02-29-2008, 06:11 PM #9 (permalink)  
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flop /turn is fine. i'd definitely raise 3x his dumbass river weak bet and fold to his overtop shove. his line looked like top pair,two pairs or worse set anyways.
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