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Rockymv
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06-28-2006, 04:39 AM
Post subject: Weak-tight with KK?
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#1 (permalink)
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Full House
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Reraiser is 28/5.
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (10 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)
MP2 ($48.50)
MP3 ($148.06)
CO ($75.44)
Button ($62.85)
Hero ($49)
BB ($36.49)
UTG ($51.10)
UTG+1 ($8.15)
UTG+2 ($66.41)
MP1 ($24.91)
Preflop: Hero is SB with K , K . Hero posts a blind of $0.25.
2 folds, UTG+2 raises to $2, MP1 calls $2, 1 fold, MP3 raises to $10, 4 folds (including hero), UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds.
Final Pot: $14.75
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samsonite2100
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Full House
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Yes, very.
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lonnie
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Full House
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Yuck. The first raise was a min-raise, so this hardly even counts as a reraise. He's trying to isolate the original raiser and that could be any range of hands. AKs, AQs, QQ, etc. No way I lay this down.
Push, or take a look at the flop to see if an A falls, then push.
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givememyleg
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WHO YA GONNA CALL?!??
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by lonnie
Push, or take a look at the flop to see if an A falls, then push.
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You mean, if an A doesn't fall?
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samsonite2100
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Full House
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Yeah, to elaborate a bit more, if I'm MP3 there--especially with a 300 BB stack, I'm reraising AK/sometimes AQs/AA-TT and occasionally 99. I usually see the flop there, maybe push if I'm feeling frisky.
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d0nk2myleft
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Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Boston
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I questioned a hand similar to this only with QQ tonight...after reviewing it later, I realized I was too embarassed to post it because the correct play was incredibly obvious.
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givememyleg
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WHO YA GONNA CALL?!??
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You need a pretty good read on the table/re-raiser to muck KK here. I know Lukie posted a hand a while back where he muked KK to a raise and a reraise preflop, but he had a very good read on the table/villian. If you can elaborate more on reads you might change my opinion from bad fold to good fold, but as it stands now I'd like to at least call and see a flop... with the intention of getting allin on a non Q or A flop.
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andy-akb
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4-of-a-Kind
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I dont think you can put somebody on that tight of a range. What are the stats of the original raiser? Over how many hands? How many hands are the stats of the reraiser over? Does he 3bet TT? JJ? QQ? AK? I think folding is the worst option of calling or raising.
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vegascoop
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Straight
Join Date: Dec 2005
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I like a call. Then check raise push any non A flop.
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lonnie
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Full House
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Quote:
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You mean, if an A doesn't fall?
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d0nk2myleft
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Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Boston
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by vegascoop
I like a call. Then check raise push any non A flop.
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That's what I'm talkin' about, all you can eat BAY BAY!
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givememyleg
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WHO YA GONNA CALL?!??
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by lonnie
Quote:
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You mean, if an A doesn't fall?
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don't joo roll yer eyes at meee !! 
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Rockymv
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Full House
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by lonnie
Yuck. The first raise was a min-raise, so this hardly even counts as a reraise.
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Nope...its a standard 4xBB raise from EP, cold call, and serious reraise to $10.
I played this like a nit...but pushing here is horrendus.
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lonnie
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Full House
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Quote:
Nope...its a standard 4xBB raise from EP, cold call, and serious reraise to $10.
I played this like a nit...but pushing here is horrendus.
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Ooops, thought they were .50/1.00 blinds for some reason. OK, it's a standard raise, cold call, reraise.
The only two reasonable choices to me are call the $10 raise to see what the flop brings or reraise all in. I don't think a fold is a good decision at the 50NL level. At higher levels I think that changes.
I think if you add the number of times you are ahead of the 5% guy in this spot (QQ, AKs,AKo,AQs among others) to the number of times your KK will suckout when he does have the AA (20%), you would be hard pressed to prove it to be "horrendous" to move all in preflop. Can you elaborate on why you find it to be horrendous?
I am leaning toward the call, look at flop, push method for this hand though, although if he has QQ and fires off a shot with an A on the flop you could be forced to lay down the best hand.
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CaptainMac
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Join Date: May 2006
Location: Newcastle, England
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i don't understand this, why is pushing 'horrendous'? at these limits, the reraiser could have anything from aa-10-10 or ak/aq. you surely can't narrow the range to aa/kk/qq.
if you are properly bankrolled for thos limit, i say push. calling brings it's problems. what if the flop is 3-to a flush, and you haven't got one of that suit? what if the flop has an ace and a queen, the mp fires a c-bet with JJ and you fold? this is a chance to likely double up with the second best hand in hold'em, don't waste it.
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Lukie
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Rocky, any idea what kind of stuff this guy is 3-betting preflop? It really makes a huge difference in this hand, obviously. Against a typical very tight 3-betting range at these limits(if this guy needs queens or better to do this, and might not even do it with QQ), this is fine. If it's wider, I'd probably call.
Pushing just seems silly unless you are going to get called by huge donkeys with worse hands, which is unlikely given the action.
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cardsman1992
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Full House
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I call, and push a non-A flop.
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CaptainMac
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Join Date: May 2006
Location: Newcastle, England
Posts: 26
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why. not. push?
if you call, thenthe ep raiser and caller are more likely to come along too, which is exactly what you DON'T want!
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benny999
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TT+/AQ+ is usually too wide of a range. He raises 5%, so unless he's 3betting the same hands he raises, this usually means QQ+, but sometimes AK and JJ too. Pushing usually makes villain fold anything below KK = -EV, but calling gets action from the lower part of the range.
Rocky - had UTG+2 been raising pf a lot at that table? It's a slight consideration..
I just realized, wouldn't it be nice to have a pf 3bet % for pokertracker/pahud? Think I'll write an email..
edit. wow pt support is fast. "yes it's definitely on the future feature list."
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andy-akb
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4-of-a-Kind
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by benny999
TT+/AQ+ is usually too wide of a range. He raises 5%, so unless he's 3betting the same hands he raises, this usually means QQ+, but sometimes AK and JJ too. Pushing usually makes villain fold anything below KK = -EV, but calling gets action from the lower part of the range.
Rocky - had you been raising pf a lot at that table? It's a slight consideration..
I just realized, wouldn't it be nice to have a pf 3bet % for pokertracker/pahud? Think I'll write an email..
edit. wow pt support is fast. "yes it's definitely on the future feature list." |
5% is 99+, AJs+, AQo, so TT+/AQ+ isnt that unlikely of a 3bet range. Even if he only called with AA if we pushed the play would still be +EV simply because of all the dead money in the pot and the probability of our opponent having AA. I wouldnt mind calling, but I also wouldnt mind pushing, both are miles better than folding.
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Rockymv
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Full House
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he had a big stack when i sat down, and i didn't see him do anything out of line. i think this is the only hand i saw him reraise.
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andy-akb
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2006
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Rockymv
he had a big stack when i sat down, and i didn't see him do anything out of line. i think this is the only hand i saw him reraise.
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You still havent said how many hands this was after
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Rockymv
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Full House
Join Date: Aug 2004
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by andy-akb
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Rockymv
he had a big stack when i sat down, and i didn't see him do anything out of line. i think this is the only hand i saw him reraise.
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You still havent said how many hands this was after |
i have 219 hands on him total. more than half of those were during this session.
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benny999
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Quote:
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Even if he only called with AA if we pushed the play would still be +EV simply because of all the dead money in the pot and the probability of our opponent having AA.
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I'm not really sure what you're saying....KK against KK+ is < 20%, and even money against QQ+. Pushing is about 40% of the pot if called. So he really needs a push to be called by less then QQ+ for it to make more sense then calling and getting all in on most flops. Also, this isn't definitely represntative, but I have around a 7% pfr stat and I'd fold QQ to a push without a read or against a tighty, and it seems like this has happened most times I've seen others on 50nl with similar stats. But I guess you can argue if he calls all in on the flop he calls all in pre flop...Anyway I agree either is better then folding...
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andy-akb
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4-of-a-Kind
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by benny999
Quote:
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Even if he only called with AA if we pushed the play would still be +EV simply because of all the dead money in the pot and the probability of our opponent having AA.
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I'm not really sure what you're saying....KK against KK+ is < 20%, and even money against QQ+. Pushing is about 40% of the pot if called. So he really needs a push to be called by less then QQ+ for it to make more sense then calling and getting all in on most flops. Also, this isn't definitely represntative, but I have around a 7% pfr stat and I'd fold QQ to a push without a read or against a tighty, and it seems like this has happened most times I've seen others on 50nl with similar stats. But I guess you can argue if he calls all in on the flop he calls all in pre flop...Anyway I agree either is better then folding... |
We do not lose every time we are called, we win 18% against AA, split nearly every time against KK and win what is in the pot every time our opponents fold. Our opponents are going to fold waaay more than they call and they may call with more than just kings and aces. I really cant imagine pushing KK over a reraise in a spot like this is -EV. We are most likely in trouble when we are called, but we arent considering the vast majority of the times we win uncontested or suckout or are called by worse hands.
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Rockymv
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Full House
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by andy-akb
or are called by worse hands.
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My problem with pushing is that I think this never happens.
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lonnie
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Full House
Join Date: Aug 2004
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Quote:
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My problem with pushing is that I think this never happens.
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You're wrong!
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givememyleg
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WHO YA GONNA CALL?!??
Administrator
Join Date: Nov 2005
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by lonnie
Quote:
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My problem with pushing is that I think this never happens.
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You're wrong! |
QFT
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Warpe
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This may go against the consensus, but I don't think this laydown is incredibly weak-tight at a Party 50NL table at all (well, a tad). A reraise to 20xbb preflop at these limits is usually AA so, at most, I'm calling here on the assumption that I'm up against AA and playing for a set. As much as you may make this big a reraise with a wider range, Joe Average on Party doesn't, and unless I have a read that tells me that this player is an exception I have nooooo problem whatsoever with a laydown here. His stats over 200+ hands aren't out of line at all. C'mon guys! Pushing preflop or on a non-ace flop in this situation is just donktastic.
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benny999
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Quote:
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We are most likely in trouble when we are called, but we arent considering the vast majority of the times we win uncontested or suckout or are called by worse hands.
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If we win the pot uncontested a lot then the push works out, but that play actually might be better done with 67s...
And I'm with Warpe somewhat - it's not like folding is blatantly wrong, it's just lower risk for a relatively low EV. If this was against a maniac or something, then it's an easy push. I really think some are not giving enough credit to villain, but if that works for you, cool.
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andy-akb
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4-of-a-Kind
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Warpe
This may go against the consensus, but I don't think this laydown is incredibly weak-tight at a Party 50NL table at all (well, a tad). A reraise to 20xbb preflop at these limits is usually AA so, at most, I'm calling here on the assumption that I'm up against AA and playing for a set. As much as you may make this big a reraise with a wider range, Joe Average on Party doesn't, and unless I have a read that tells me that this player is an exception I have nooooo problem whatsoever with a laydown here. His stats over 200+ hands aren't out of line at all. C'mon guys! Pushing preflop or on a non-ace flop in this situation is just donktastic.
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Pushing preflop is not donktastic at all and I will gaurantee that it is +EV. Joe average at party doesnt run at 28/5, thats aggressive enough preflop to suggest that they are reraising more than just AA and KK. Simply because the raise was big in terms of BBs doesnt mean it is a big raise. There was a 4xBB raise [standard] before him, and a call in between, if I were 3betting here I would make it around $8-10 depending on the two people in the pot, this raise isnt huge and is pretty close to standard.
Quote:
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Originally Posted by benny999
Quote:
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We are most likely in trouble when we are called, but we arent considering the vast majority of the times we win uncontested or suckout or are called by worse hands.
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If we win the pot uncontested a lot then the push works out, but that play actually might be better done with 67s...
And I'm with Warpe somewhat - it's not like folding is blatantly wrong, it's just lower risk for a relatively low EV. If this was against a maniac or something, then it's an easy push. I really think some are not giving enough credit to villain, but if that works for you, cool. |
Pushing preflop in this spot with 76s is not comparable to this situation at all. If we push here we could be called by QQ or AK and maybe even JJ, with KK we are big favorites over all of those, with 76s we are favorites over no hand that could realistically call.
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WhooFleuryScores
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Full House
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I think a fold is ok OOP;esp facing a reraise UNLESS you know both are maniacs.Then a preflop HUUUUUGE reraise is in order and push any non paired non Ace/Queen/Jack flop preferable unconnected rainbow as well.
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lonnie
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Full House
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Quote:
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I think a fold is ok OOP;esp facing a reraise UNLESS you know both are maniacs.Then a preflop HUUUUUGE reraise is in order and push any non paired non Ace/Queen/Jack flop preferable unconnected rainbow as well.
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Of course you could remove position from the equation altogether by pushing all in. The great equalizer.
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Lukie
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4-of-a-Kind
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by andy-akb
Quote:
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Originally Posted by benny999
TT+/AQ+ is usually too wide of a range. He raises 5%, so unless he's 3betting the same hands he raises, this usually means QQ+, but sometimes AK and JJ too. Pushing usually makes villain fold anything below KK = -EV, but calling gets action from the lower part of the range.
Rocky - had you been raising pf a lot at that table? It's a slight consideration..
I just realized, wouldn't it be nice to have a pf 3bet % for pokertracker/pahud? Think I'll write an email..
edit. wow pt support is fast. "yes it's definitely on the future feature list." |
5% is 99+, AJs+, AQo, so TT+/AQ+ isnt that unlikely of a 3bet range. Even if he only called with AA if we pushed the play would still be +EV simply because of all the dead money in the pot and the probability of our opponent having AA. I wouldnt mind calling, but I also wouldnt mind pushing, both are miles better than folding. |
OP said the guy raises 5% of his hands, which no mention of his 3-betting range which will always be much smaller.
Cmon man do you really think the average passive NL50 FR player is 3-betting an EP raise with TT+/AQ+? N o w a y. Nor should he. I just wanted to point that out.
As far as the hand, I'd probably call here usually, push if there are some horrible donkeys in the hand, and fold if I think MP3's range here is tight enough. If his range is QQ+, weighted towards the top of that range, then it's a correct fold.
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andy-akb
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4-of-a-Kind
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Lukie
OP said the guy raises 5% of his hands, which no mention of his 3-betting range which will always be much smaller.
Cmon man do you really think the average passive NL50 FR player is 3-betting an EP raise with TT+/AQ+? N o w a y. Nor should he. I just wanted to point that out.
As far as the hand, I'd probably call here usually, push if there are some horrible donkeys in the hand, and fold if I think MP3's range here is tight enough. If his range is QQ+, weighted towards the top of that range, then it's a correct fold.
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Ehh looking back that is probably too loose, but I dont think its going to be as tight as QQ+, Id atleast toss AK in there and there is a chance of JJ. Typically a player wont be reraising there with the range I mentioned earlier, but it isnt out of the question and I dont think it would be a huge mistake against a lot of players at these stakes to 3bet an EP raise that wide, no read of UTG+2 was posted.
I agree with what you say though about calling as a standard play and pushing if you felt you could get a loose call, even without that though I still think it would be +EV, but I would rather call than push.
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