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EricE
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06-08-2006, 03:43 PM
Post subject: Weak or good fold?
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#1 (permalink)
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Full House
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 894
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Hand #325019092 at table: Table TH 543
Started: Wed Jun 07 19:50:14 2006
Hero is UTG with 107.40
SB is with 130.75
BB posts the large blind 1.00
SB posts the small blind 0.50
Hero: :Ks:, :Kc:
Pre-flop:
Hero: Raise 4.00
5 Folds
Button: Call 4.00
SB: Raise 10.00
BB: Fold
Hero: Raise 25.00
Button: Fold
SB: Call 25.00
Flop  :Qs: :Td:
SB: Bet 24.00
Hero: Fold
What do you put him on?
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Stakes: Playing $0.10/$0.25 NL
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AHiltz
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Coldbrook, NS
Posts: 1,589
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AQ, AT, QQ, TT
40%, 10%, 40%, 10%
His call and not raising pf usually negates AA.
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Bear Bones
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 70
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This is very read dependent. Any info on villain?
without a read this could be AK on a draw making a blocking bet to
JJ betting for info with a slightly less than 1/2 pot bet or AA/QQ/TT looking to get value. WIthout a read and having position I call this and evaluate the turn card and action or push.
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EricE
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Full House
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 894
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by AHiltz
AQ, AT, QQ, TT
40%, 10%, 40%, 10%
His call and not raising pf usually negates AA.
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You really think he would call 25xbb bet PF with anything less than a made hand? I think SBs range is AA-QQ here. AA may push but if he does I am folding PF. As such, it could be AA calling for deception.
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Stakes: Playing $0.10/$0.25 NL
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biondino
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Putney, UK; Full Tilt,Mansion; $50 NL and PL; $13 and $16 SNGs at Stars
Posts: 3,170
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QQ or TT. AA (or KK) bets bigger on the flop I think.
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EricE
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Full House
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 894
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by biondino
QQ or TT. AA (or KK) bets bigger on the flop I think.
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Maybe but there is no real need. The pot is 50xbb so we are getting it all in pretty easy by the river. You think this is a weak fold then?
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Stakes: Playing $0.10/$0.25 NL
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Rondavu
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 3,053
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Weak fold IMO
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It's not what's inside that counts. Have you seen what's inside?
Internal organs. And they're getting uglier by the minute.
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Lukie
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: back with a vengeance
Posts: 3,307
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by EricE
Quote:
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Originally Posted by AHiltz
AQ, AT, QQ, TT
40%, 10%, 40%, 10%
His call and not raising pf usually negates AA.
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You really think he would call 25xbb bet PF with anything less than a made hand? I think SBs range is AA-QQ here. AA may push but if he does I am folding PF. As such, it could be AA calling for deception. |
If you think this is his range, why is there even a decision? Easiest fold ever.
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Lukie
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: back with a vengeance
Posts: 3,307
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by AHiltz
AQ, AT, QQ, TT
40%, 10%, 40%, 10%
His call and not raising pf usually negates AA.
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cmon, do you really think there's a 10% chance he has AT here?
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EricE
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Full House
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 894
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Rondavu
Weak fold IMO
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Psychologically I needed a winning session after losing 8 straight buy-ins with no winning sessions in-between. I am happy with the decision based on that.
So what is your hand range for him here and what is your move on the turn?
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Stakes: Playing $0.10/$0.25 NL
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AHiltz
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Coldbrook, NS
Posts: 1,589
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Lukie
Quote:
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Originally Posted by AHiltz
AQ, AT, QQ, TT
40%, 10%, 40%, 10%
His call and not raising pf usually negates AA.
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cmon, do you really think there's a 10% chance he has AT here? |
After the donkish shit I've seen at Prima today, yup, I do think it's in his range. I might even move it to 15%.
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Bear Bones
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 70
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by AHiltz
AQ, 10%
AJ or AT, 5%
QQ, 25%
TT, 5%
AK,, 25%,
JJ,20%,
AA,10%
His call and not raising pf usually negates AA.
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Any reads at all? Anyone who is thinking is laying down AJ/AT and probably AQ and TT on the preflop re-raise. I agree with AHiltz that AA probably pushes preflop. This looks like AK or JJ missed and trying to take down the pot or QQ, hit the mother load and is betting for value. I think you are probably good here. I think a call and push a turn check or push this flop.
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EricE
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Full House
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 894
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At the time of the hand I had no real reads. I had been there a little over an orbit.
After the hand I watched him real close. I noticed he won most hands with aggression. So much so that if I got into a hand I was winning I could check and expect him to hang himself. With that read the flop above probably becomes a call.
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Stakes: Playing $0.10/$0.25 NL
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Miffed22001
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Marry Me Cheryl!!!
Posts: 8,181
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weak 3 bet with KK, id have raised so that i wasnt folding any flop anyway or so that it was all going in preflop.
I think you can fold that flop safely enough however id have bloated the pot to the point where i wasnt folding it anyway.
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