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Villian line range? set 200bb deep

  
 
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inƒamous
Old 08-28-2009, 06:21 AM     Post subject: Villian line range? set 200bb deep #1 (permalink)  
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Villian is 15/11/3.8 w/ 31 ATs C bet %65

Me and villian are 200 bb's deep

I have been 3 betting villian a few times w/ success against his blind steals here I opt to cold call. Can someone please help me come up w/ a range villian could check raise all in on turn with?

Set of 5's, 9's, 3's, AA, KK, A6d, 78d, 78s, 78o combo's am getting 2-1 on turn shove against this range am 88% fav is this correct or am I missing something?

My flop raise forces my opponent to have a hand but also dosn't allow him to put me on a set. As a set line is normally call flop, raise turn. Obv depending on how draw heavy the board is.

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (8 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP1 ($50)
MP2 ($92.55)
Hero (CO) ($100.20)
Button ($47.55)
SB ($49.50)
BB ($53.40)
UTG ($50)
UTG+1 ($81.60)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 6, 6
3 folds, MP2 bets $2, Hero calls $2, 3 folds

Flop: ($4.75) 6, 9, 3 (2 players)
MP2 bets $3, Hero raises $9, MP2 calls $6

Turn: ($22.75) 5 (2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero bets $20, MP2 raises $81.55 (All-In), Hero calls $61.55

River: ($185.85) Q (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $185.85
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BankItDrew
Old 08-28-2009, 06:41 AM #2 (permalink)  
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 you are HU and only behind 99 or 78, can't fold now!

nh


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ehkay47
Old 08-28-2009, 07:29 AM #3 (permalink)  

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hmmm yeah I'd probably go with it. I think it's 99 more than 78 here but not enough to fold, imo anyways.
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daven
Old 08-28-2009, 08:44 AM #4 (permalink)  
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 nh, well played
don't raise with the straight flush bro, nobody ever gonna call that shit
allin, reload, repeat

please read: http://www.philgalfond.com/lets-make-some-changes/
 
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pokerfan
Old 08-28-2009, 04:04 PM #5 (permalink)  
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In online aggressive games,I'd never fold this.Hmmm,I might fold bottom-mid sets in live games vs some straightforward passive guys given their body language blah blah.
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Stacks
Old 08-28-2009, 04:19 PM #6 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ehkay47
hmmm yeah I'd probably go with it. I think it's 99 more than 78 here but not enough to fold, imo anyways.
It's going to be 78 more often than 99 for a couple reasons. First there are more combos of 87 than there are of 99, with 16 combos of 87 and only 3 combos of 99. Secondly, is the fact that we can reasonably assume that villain would likely 3bet the flop with 99 here rather than call and c/r the turn. 3betting the flop with 87 on the other hand is pretty spewy, and villain is much more likely to call, then c/raise a ginned turn card.

With that said if his raise is {AA,99,87} then we have 38% equity. Therefore, after we bet the turn we only need 33% equity to continue (61.55/185.85), which against even such a tight range we have. Keep in mind that if he is playing 99 in this manner, then he could also legitimately play 33 in this manner. Also other overpairs could be in his range.
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Stacks
Old 08-28-2009, 04:22 PM #7 (permalink)  
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 Also to the OP, he doesn't have 55 in his range
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inƒamous
Old 08-29-2009, 07:15 AM #8 (permalink)  
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true 55 should not have been in his range. Would you have played 33 similar to this or do you slow down w/ 33 here in his shoes?
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oskar
Old 08-29-2009, 12:05 PM #9 (permalink)  
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 I like a 3b pre. You're keeping the btn from squeezing or calling behind with a wide range, and villain looks very nitty, so even without a fold-to-3b stat I would assume it's pretty high.

I don't think you can give him 16 combos of 78btw - he's 15/11... unless this is over a small sample he can really only have 4 combos. I still think that this is 78 more than anything else... not because of combos ldo, but because sets and AA don't play that way as often.
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Azazel
Old 08-30-2009, 10:04 AM #10 (permalink)  

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Quote:
Originally Posted by oskar
I like a 3b pre. You're keeping the btn from squeezing or calling behind with a wide range, and villain looks very nitty, so even without a fold-to-3b stat I would assume it's pretty high.
i dont think we can advocate a 3b preflop without stats from player OTB (and blinds to a lesser extent) also I dont think its necessary at 50nl(?) most people don't open THAT wide from MP2.

Quote:
It's going to be 78 more often than 99 for a couple reasons. First there are more combos of 87 than there are of 99, with 16 combos of 87 and only 3 combos of 99. Secondly, is the fact that we can reasonably assume that villain would likely 3bet the flop with 99 here rather than call and c/r the turn. 3betting the flop with 87 on the other hand is pretty spewy, and villain is much more likely to call, then c/raise a ginned turn card.
i play 15-11ish and i wouldn't open 78o from MP2 and not even 78s depending on table(especially if someone on my right was 3bing often). I think his range is mainly 99, KK+, only occasionally 78. i stack off and hate life when he flips 99 but fist pump the KK-AA.
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Deanglow
Old 08-30-2009, 03:16 PM #11 (permalink)  
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 78 is discounted because of position pre and flop call out of position. This is 33 or an AJdd type hand.
 
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