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View Poll Results: This hand is...?
Awful 2 50.00%
meh, probably spew. 2 50.00%
Breakeven ish but high variance so fold... 0 0%
Voters: 4. You may not vote on this poll

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Villain has a draw amiright? Poll inside!

  
 
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badgers
Old 09-04-2009, 04:25 PM     Post subject: Villain has a draw amiright? Poll inside! #1 (permalink)  
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villain is 26/15/3 over 50 hands but is proudly showing his supernova status. I don't have any further reads... Obviously the standard on the flop is to bet/fold, but I came up with the plan to float with the intention of shoving any safe turn, or checking through the turn and betting river if checked to again. I felt that this is a draw/air the vast majority of the time.

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
9 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($204.75)
UTG+1 ($236.00)
MP1 ($213.35)
MP2 ($37.00)
Hero (MP3) ($261.55)
CO ($220.00)
BTN ($34.00)
SB ($40.00)
BB ($40.00)

Pre-flop: ($3, 9 players) Hero is MP3
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $2, 2 folds, Hero raises to $8, 4 folds, UTG+1 calls $6

Flop: ($19, 2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $14, UTG+1 raises to $44, Hero calls $30

Turn: ($107, 2 players)
UTG+1 bets $55, Hero goes all-in $209.55
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badgers
Old 09-04-2009, 04:27 PM #2 (permalink)  
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meh I added a fourth option to the poll which was maybe slightly +EV but I'm not too upset that it's gone since nobody was gonna vote for it anyway

There are definitely better turn cards to do this on I think... IDK, advice needed!
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ATOTHEC101
Old 09-04-2009, 05:57 PM #3 (permalink)  
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Seriously bad spew, I get where you're coming from but the 7 hearts is such a bad turn to do this on as it often pairs up his combo draws and also makes 910/910ds, plus hands like axds are not gonna fold anyway. If you do wanna take this line shove any turn bar diamonds, 4,5,7,9,10, even then I'm def not a fan. Basically because that's alot of cards you are depending on not falling plus theres a decent chance he has you crushed in the first place.
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badgers
Old 09-04-2009, 06:10 PM #4 (permalink)  
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I definitely think I got a bit paranoid/FPSy on this one, his line definitely screams draw but playing back with 100% of my range is just over-the-top especially when his draws can have me totally crushed (I have 14% equity vs Ad2d here for example)

What's the worst hand you take this line with? idk if I peel flop with 55 but if I did, would this be a shove? AK?
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Old 09-04-2009, 09:20 PM #5 (permalink)  
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the point of floating is usually to bet when he checks to you
I mean who the fuck knows he could have like 99/TT here and he's not about to fold pair + straight draw

and if he raised diamonds on the flop he probably calls ace high and takes it down after missing and you feel retarded
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badgers
Old 09-04-2009, 09:32 PM #6 (permalink)  
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I know what the point of floating is but I think it's more coherent to let the turn check through and bet river. If he checks two streets after raising flop here he almost always has a missed draw of some kind, and by checking the turn I protect myself from being check raised.

That said I'm not really defending this hand, just showing my thought process in making this clearly bad plan so that I can learn from my mistakes. The more I fiddle about with ranges on this hand the more awful it becomes. AK is crushed by a range comprised entirely of draws, so even that is a simple flop fold (although what makes me want to call with AK more is the possibility that he will barrel those cards.) Meh, at least I'm not afraid to show how bad I play sometimes. Chalk this one down as a spazzy moment and move on :s
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Deanglow
Old 09-05-2009, 07:14 AM #7 (permalink)  
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 lol I think he rarely folds his A high flush draws
 
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