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Value from rivered nut flush?

  
 
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zook
Old 01-15-2007, 08:44 PM     Post subject: Value from rivered nut flush? #1 (permalink)  
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No reads/stats on either villain.

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Holdem Ring game - Blinds: $1/$2 - 8 players - Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $309.75
UTG+1: $164.60
MP1: $80
MP2: $143.75
CO: $347.75
Button: $207
SB: $77
Hero: $243

Pre-flop: (8 players) Hero is BB with A 9
2 folds, MP1 (poster) checks, MP2 folds, CO calls, Button folds, SB calls, Hero (poster) checks.

Flop: Q 8 7 ($8, 4 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, MP1 bets $2, CO calls, SB folds, Hero calls.

Turn: T ($14, 3 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets $2, CO calls, Hero calls.

River: J ($20, 3 players)
Hero...
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WildBobAA
Old 01-15-2007, 08:48 PM #2 (permalink)  
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you have to lead here.
 
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Beck
Old 01-16-2007, 12:18 PM #3 (permalink)  
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i like 1/4-1/2 pot for value. More likely 1/4 pot. hopefully he has the and calls or raises
-Beck
 
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Phantaroth
Old 01-16-2007, 01:23 PM #4 (permalink)  
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id raise it 3$

Edit:
Rofl, didnt read the Blinds. Hmmm. I dunno, I don't think a big bet is getting called here much... I'd raise it 4$
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bode
Old 01-16-2007, 01:33 PM #5 (permalink)  
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 a ~1/2 pot lead out seems right here. a c/r is only getting another $2 bet.
Quote:
eeevees are not monies yet...they are like baby monies.
 
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Khabbi
Old 01-16-2007, 01:34 PM #6 (permalink)  
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You don't have the nut flush, that honor belongs to anyone holding 9s Ts. But your hand is fairly solid none the less.

I'd bet $20 here and make Ks pay you off. If you read NLHT&P you would have seen how getting paid off on bigger bets less often is more profitable than making value bets on the river with the nuts or near-nuts.
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zook
Old 01-16-2007, 03:52 PM     Post subject: Re: Value from rivered nut flush? #7 (permalink)  
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Thanks guys. I actually went for the c/r because of something I read in NLHE T&P (p. 151) about one of the best situations for river c/r being a flush completing and you have the nuts. (Or second nuts in this case, thx Khabbi ). I figured one of the two opps made a lower flush and would bet, and if the Ks was out, they'd probably call a c/r.

In hindsight, this would have been better off with a read, and it's possible that CO would have raised if I lead...

River: J ($20, 3 players)
Hero checks, MP1 checks, CO bets $10, Hero raises to $50, MP1 folds, CO calls.

Results:
Final pot: $120
Hero showed As 9h
CO mucks Tc Ks


Is thinking I should have raised even more just plain greedy?
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seoul_child1
Old 01-16-2007, 04:09 PM #8 (permalink)  
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perfect raise, i don't think he calls much more and if u did go higher, You risk losing him. $50 was just enough to entice the call...NH
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