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Up against flush draw

  
 
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jackvance
Old 03-18-2006, 07:44 PM     Post subject: Up against flush draw #1 (permalink)  
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 Ok. So after getting nothing all night, and basically breaking even, my profits being lost to stupid decisions, finally I get a JJ. Not that super but it's nice.

I make a 8bb raise preflop. One guy is in, and the pot is pretty juicy due to dead money. The flop gives 3 undercards, 349 and two of them spades. Good, I got overpair, but there is a flush-draw out. Villain throws out a raise. Now I figure: this raise isn't enough for him to have something like AA, KK or QQ.. so I put him at either A9 or a flush-draw.

So I calculate:
- My stack is about 1.5x the current pot.
- If he has A9, I have great odds to win
- If he is going for a flush draw, 1/3 it hits. But he likely also has one or two cards over J. I figure one because otherwise he'd have had a BIG hand and raises more all around. So I give him 12 outs. That is about 44% chance to 'hit'.
- So, to give him bad pot odds, I have to bet over this percentage. He already put in some with his raise, so I figure that all-in is probably best.

He calls my all-in, shows Q9 spades. Just as I suspected. The turn gives him his flush and I'm out.

But my question is.. did I do the right thing? I think I did if my math is correct.. but any input is welcome.
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Pelion
Old 03-18-2006, 07:56 PM #2 (permalink)  
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Yup. You read him for the flush draw and you put as much in as you could while you were ahead. That PFR seems a little excessive but in this case it got the job done and if you can bet that much and still be called by crap then go for it.
gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.

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jackvance
Old 03-18-2006, 08:00 PM #3 (permalink)  
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 Yeah I know the preflop might seem excessive, but I had position and on top of that, before it came to me there had already been a 3-4bb going around with some followers, so the pot was already loaded, which I think justifies a somewhat higher than usual reraise.

This is also 6max so cards are more valuable than in 10max.

Actually, come to think of it, an even higher reraise might have weeded out this gambler.

But anyway, I can atleast take comfort that I 'did the right thing'.. even though it still sucks to get destacked like this..
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jackvance
Old 03-18-2006, 08:16 PM #4 (permalink)  
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 Ok seems he DID have the better odds to win anyway. Damn.
48.5% for me vs 51.5% for him gives the calculator.

I forgot that the 2 other 9's are also outs.. so he actually has 14 outs, or 52% to hit them.

Hm, very interesting exercice. So it was a mistake of mine afterall.
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NLHE lahooozaher
Old 03-18-2006, 09:14 PM #5 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Actually, come to think of it, an even higher reraise might have weeded out this gambler.
You don't want him to fold. You want people to call with dominated hands.

Postflop I think you both played it well. He leads out thinking he may have the best hand and if he didn't it has a good chance to crack whatever you have. There is no way you can put him on a combo draw like that HU and push him in. Nothing wrong with that.

Note: The way you wrote it makes me think he led, but I could be wrong there.
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jackvance
Old 03-18-2006, 09:34 PM #6 (permalink)  
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 Well I don't remember exactly, I really should keep logs but.. I raised preflop, and had position on him postflop. Postflop he raised like 7bb, which was a lot less than the pot. I'm kinda wondering how the pot got so big.. maybe there was a preflop reraise by me or him, don't remember.

So after his postflop raise I reasoned like this.. " I have underpair, there's a good chance he's got TPTK, in which case I have him beat with overpair.. or he might be chasing a flush draw, possibly with one overcard which adds some percentages but should still be below 50%.. or he might be trying to bluff me out since all low cards dropped.. so I best go all-in since the pot is already so big."

So turns out he had one overcard and one pair, putting him at slightly better than cointoss odds. So in fact he had TP with high kicker AND flush draw.. no wonder he called the all-in so fast.

But all in all, would you say I made the right decision?
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Pelion
Old 03-18-2006, 09:44 PM #7 (permalink)  
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I still think its fine
gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.

bigspenda73: But how much did you win?
 
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jackvance
Old 03-18-2006, 10:11 PM #8 (permalink)  
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 Ok, thx
Sarcasm is your body's natural defense against stupidity
 
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