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SinkRox
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04-27-2006, 11:57 PM
Post subject: Unconventional Fold. 50NL FR
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#1 (permalink)
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Full House
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Brighton, UK
Posts: 624
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Tag running at 10/3 open raises from EP. I call with AK
(atm I'm just whoring and trying to build my roll, so dont opt for the higher varience re-raise)
Flop: A Q J rainbow
He CB's I fold.
Thoughts?
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Experimenting - 200NL 5max.
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Seasider
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Flush
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Bangor UK
Posts: 563
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If you're doing that why not just fold pre-flop? If you thought it was a c bet call and bet -raise or check - bet the turn. He'll fold if beaten, raise if he has a monster and if he calls and may be ahead he'll prob just let you check through the river.
The way its played I dont like, but maby u had a read he never bet without a monster?
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dpe8598
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Flush
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 261
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I need way more details than this, but I have to agree, why even call his raise? What are you looking for? Your only going to flop 2 pair or better less than 5% of the time even w/ AK. There is certainly a time to fold on a rainbow w/ lots of face cards, but without more details, I have to say this is an instacall.
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andy-akb
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Maine
Posts: 1,836
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3% is 99+, AK [Assumption made using pokerstove, and assuming this is based on atleast a few hundred hands]
AA, QQ, and JJ beat us, AK is a split, and we beat 99, TT and JJ. You have AK and there is an ace on the board, so AA is very unlikely as there is only one combination to make it. We are really only worrying about QQ and JJ here, everything else we beat [he is EP so that may take 99 out of his raising range, but its still close]. I would raise this flop and see how he reacts. He will be folding a good portion of the time, and if he calls you still have 4 outs to a straight, and if he reraises then you should have an easy fold. Its not as straightforward as I thought when I first read this, but I still think you need to raise here, folding to a cbet which he will be making with any of his hands is too weak.
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SinkRox
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Full House
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Brighton, UK
Posts: 624
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I was hoping for an Axx flop so I could pick up his CBet or milk an AQ.
Ive ran at 10/3 myself so im pretty certain his raising range here from EP PF is only AA-QQ, AK and possibly AQ, possibly JJ also.
For details not mentined you can assume the norm (only me and him in pot, full stacks, his CB is 3/4 pot)
Just wanted to check folding here isnt too weak, and hadn't even thought of folding pf IP but vs his range its porbably the best play.
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Experimenting - 200NL 5max.
"They say that dreams are real only as long as they last. Couldn't you say the same thing about life?" Waking life
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GatorJH
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: HotLanta
Posts: 3,179
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Even if I am bonus whoring I would have raised that flop. Look at this from his position. He raised pre-flop, you called and you have now raised HIM on the flop. If he is as tight as you say he has you on AA or QQ and will most likely fold even if he has two pair.
If he comes over the top you can lay it down knowing HE had one of those two hands.
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Poker is easy, it's winning at poker that's hard.
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Lukie
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: back with a vengeance
Posts: 3,307
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Quote:
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Ive ran at 10/3 myself so im pretty certain his raising range here from EP PF is only AA-QQ, AK and possibly AQ, possibly JJ also.
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Fold preflop.
FWIW, I don't think it's close.
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Lukie
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: back with a vengeance
Posts: 3,307
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Also, a 3% preflop range is like JJ+, AK. And it's possible his raising range is tighter then that from EP. I know of some players whom I'm confident their raising range is like QQ+ from these seats. Anyway, AK plays so terribly against such a tight range. Best case scenario is you hit TPTK and pray that he has an underpair... or hit TPTK and get stacked by a set/overpair 
edit: actually I think some horrible weak/tight nits range here is like KK+, but people that bad have all but gone away...
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Warpe
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Moderator
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Canuckistan
Posts: 3,905
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Lukie
Quote:
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Ive ran at 10/3 myself so im pretty certain his raising range here from EP PF is only AA-QQ, AK and possibly AQ, possibly JJ also.
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Fold preflop.
FWIW, I don't think it's close. |
---
261,360 games 0.110 secs 2,376,000 games/sec
Board: Ac Qh Js
Dead:
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 37.9500 % 22.93% 15.02% { AKs, AKo }
Hand 2: 62.0500 % 47.03% 15.02% { JJ+, AQs+, AQo+ }
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Renton
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Atlanta, GA, USA
Posts: 5,991
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http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...portance+reads
I always fold AK to supertight passives, and it doesn't even sting a little.
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Seasider
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Flush
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Bangor UK
Posts: 563
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Well if we can put him on that small a range I agree with Lukie, why call at all you are never going to be comefortable with your AK on the flop. Just save calls for pocket pairs and set hunt, boring I know.  However if he is that tight he will be $hi££ing himself that you have the straight on that flop, so still worth a raise IMO. I assume this is full ring?
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martindcx1e
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 3,614
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by andy-akb
3% is 99+, AK [Assumption made using pokerstove, and assuming this is based on atleast a few hundred hands]
AA, QQ, and JJ beat us, AK is a split, and we beat 99, TT and JJ. You have AK and there is an ace on the board, so AA is very unlikely as there is only one combination to make it. We are really only worrying about QQ and JJ here, everything else we beat [he is EP so that may take 99 out of his raising range, but its still close]. I would raise this flop and see how he reacts. He will be folding a good portion of the time, and if he calls you still have 4 outs to a straight, and if he reraises then you should have an easy fold. Its not as straightforward as I thought when I first read this, but I still think you need to raise here, folding to a cbet which he will be making with any of his hands is too weak.
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If you put him on QQ-TT then why are you raising? Depending on his c-bet size he has probably already put in enough money to make drawing incorrect if he's behind. I think if you raise you let him off easy if he's behind, and you only get action from better hands here.
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Wikipedia is the best thing ever. Anyone in the world can write anything they want about any subject. So you know you are getting the best possible information.
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andy-akb
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Maine
Posts: 1,836
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by martindcx1e
If you put him on QQ-TT then why are you raising? Depending on his c-bet size he has probably already put in enough money to make drawing incorrect if he's behind. I think if you raise you let him off easy if he's behind, and you only get action from better hands here.
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Becuase without raising you have no idea where you are at in the hand. If you raise and he reraises, you fold becaue you are behind. If you just call then you are [most likely] going to be putting more money in on the turn or the river without knowing where you stand. A raise on the flop gives you a much better idea.
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martindcx1e
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 3,614
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by andy-akb
Becuase without raising you have no idea where you are at in the hand. If you raise and he reraises, you fold becaue you are behind. If you just call then you are [most likely] going to be putting more money in on the turn or the river without knowing where you stand. A raise on the flop gives you a much better idea.
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So you're raising just to find out where you're at? What do you do if your raise is called? It seems to me that a raise is -EV here because you're probably only getting action when you're beat, and even when you're ahead you are going into c/f mode if you get a call.
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Lukie
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: back with a vengeance
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why are we raising the flop when the only hand we can realistically be ahead of is KK?
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salsa4ever
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Full House
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 1,073
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I'm reraising pre flop if I play at all
but against a villain that tight I just fold it.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by bigred
Would you bone your cousins? Salsa would.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by salsa4ever
well courtie, since we're both clear, would you accept an invitation for some unprotected sex?
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andy-akb
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Maine
Posts: 1,836
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Lukie
why are we raising the flop when the only hand we can realistically be ahead of is KK?
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TT? And if you dont raise, do you call down if villain leads the next street? If I raise and he calls, Im not putting anymore money in the pot. If I call and he bets the turn Im going to call if I called the flop, correct? What about the river? I just think it may be more expensive to simply call because on the next streets the bets get bigger and your action isnt as clear. Im still a beginner at NL cash games, so I could be way off though.
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bdawg56kg
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Full House
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Honolulu
Posts: 1,201
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by andy-akb
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Lukie
why are we raising the flop when the only hand we can realistically be ahead of is KK?
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TT? And if you dont raise, do you call down if villain leads the next street? If I raise and he calls, Im not putting anymore money in the pot. If I call and he bets the turn Im going to call if I called the flop, correct? What about the river? I just think it may be more expensive to simply call because on the next streets the bets get bigger and your action isnt as clear. Im still a beginner at NL cash games, so I could be way off though. |
From a guy that raises 3% of his hands, TT is likely not in his range, but regardless, what Lukie is saying is that in the majority of cases, raising the flop will get worse hands to fold and lose you money to better hands, which is essentially letting villian play perfect poker against you. This is why calling the flop bet is a much better option than raising. On the turn, you have position, so you can re-evaluate based on how villian reacts to the particular turn card. Calling and seeing what villian does on the turn gives you a LOT of information. Raising for info is just dumb and overused, especially when you have position and the flop is rainbow.
To the OP, if you are going to fold this flop, then you should fold preflop. If I smooth-call preflop with AK, I will never fold to a c-bet if I hit tptk. Also, bonus-whoring should have zero impact on the way you play. If you are looking to avoid high-variance situations, then you are either too much of a nit or playing above your br. Running away from these marginal situations is losing you a lot of value, and more importantly preventing you from improving your game.
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andy-akb
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Maine
Posts: 1,836
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by bdawg56kg
From a guy that raises 3% of his hands, TT is likely not in his range, but regardless, what Lukie is saying is that in the majority of cases, raising the flop will get worse hands to fold and lose you money to better hands, which is essentially letting villian play perfect poker against you. This is why calling the flop bet is a much better option than raising. On the turn, you have position, so you can re-evaluate based on how villian reacts to the particular turn card. Calling and seeing what villian does on the turn gives you a LOT of information. Raising for info is just dumb and overused, especially when you have position and the flop is rainbow.
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Ive read threads here that raising for information is overused, I just dont know how it would be in this situation. Again, Ive only put in like 20k hands in NL cash games, so while I have a general idea of what Im doing, I dont know all that much. If I raise this flop and get reraised, I fold knowing Im beat against this opponent. If I call and then the turn comes a blank, but he leads again for a bet of the same size [proportionally to the pot] I personally dont know where I would stand in that situation as in my eyes nothing really changed from the flop. How would you interpret a bet from the villain on a blank turn? What is the information that you would have?
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natdang
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Flush
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: Los Angeles
Posts: 380
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Yeah, same question, if you're gonna cold call the flop, wouldn't that mean you need to cold call the turn as well? He is almost certainly gonna lead the turn. There aren't any cards that improve the situation; if you're scared of an AQJ flop, then a K certainly doesn't make you feel any better. T would mean a split and board pair sucks here too. I don't get why you wouldn't raise flop to see where you stand.
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martindcx1e
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 3,614
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You don't raise the flop because it is -EV. It's really that simple. You should not be raising in situations where you let your opponent(s) off easy with weaker hands and just hand them your chips when they're way ahead of you. You should call and play poker. As bdawg said, seeing the way villain acts on the turn gives you ALOT of information. If you are afraid to play poker on a later street then you should just fold, which in this case means you should've just folded PF. Every time you raise in these kinds of situations you are making a -EV decision and these mistakes will add up.
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johnny_fish
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: donkaments weeeeeeeeeeee
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Agreed. Call flop, fold to any turn aggression. There are very few hands you beat that would bet the turn too.
Raising the flop is burning money.
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SinkRox
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Full House
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Brighton, UK
Posts: 624
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Nice discussion peeps.. a new twist has appeared...
Villan had 50 hands - I assumed this would give an accurate figure to his stats - but Ive now realised it is in noway enough sample size. I bumped into a player from another forum I visit who was running at 2/0 (yes... 2/0!) over 50 hands - he later told me he actually runs at 10/3 and was just very card dead.
So, in this hand the villan *could* well actually be a 20/7 that has been card dead and lacked stealing oportunities. - therefor I think folding pf becomes less of an option.
Also to note - stats converge to their true values a lot more quickly for looser players, a stat of 40/10 over 50 hands will be quite a true representation of their play, whereas 10/3 over 50 hands needs to be taken lightly. I think 200 hands is a decent sample size.
As it turns out, after some data mining, villan is actually 15/4 over 1.1k hands.
bdawg56kg, very good points... I totally agree with you, though it is worth considering weather a high varience game will actually affect your game - normally it doesnt for me, though Ive just recovered from a 6-buy-in downswing over just ~1-2k hands... so any more high varience / more downswing would nock my confidence more/ Whereas if i can recover, my confidence will return and my game will be better. This is why I was trying to play with slightly lessor varience. Something I rarely do (I dont often downswing 6buy-ins).
This may also be why Phil Hellmuth opted for 'insurance' within a big hand in the High Stakes Poker TV Show vs Barry Greenstien where he was ~80% favourite but opted for taking ~70% of the pot there and then.
Believe me, I'll normally always take the marginal +EV situations for big pots or even my whole stack. In this hand, villan was a complete egg, and I was so certain he had one pair, likely TP with QX, that I made the marginal +EV call:
https://www.pokernetwork.co.uk/games...mber=414538493
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Experimenting - 200NL 5max.
"They say that dreams are real only as long as they last. Couldn't you say the same thing about life?" Waking life
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Lukie
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: back with a vengeance
Posts: 3,307
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by andy-akb
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Lukie
why are we raising the flop when the only hand we can realistically be ahead of is KK?
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TT? And if you dont raise, do you call down if villain leads the next street? If I raise and he calls, Im not putting anymore money in the pot. If I call and he bets the turn Im going to call if I called the flop, correct? What about the river? I just think it may be more expensive to simply call because on the next streets the bets get bigger and your action isnt as clear. Im still a beginner at NL cash games, so I could be way off though. |
Against opponent's range, this is about as bad of a flop as we could possibly get. So we're ahead of KK and splitting with AK, and absolutely slaughtered by AA, QQ, JJ, and a somewhat possible AQ. Our hand can't really withstand any pressure against that range. I actually think OP's flop fold is solid to be honest. If I thought I could get a worse hand to check down after a flop call, I'd consider doing that with the intent of not putting more money in the pot.
I remember a long time back when Fnord made a post, that went something like, full ring game, tight UTG raiser opens for a raise, Fnord mucks AKs in UTG+1. I was like whaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaat. But if you think about it, it makes a lot of sense.
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Lukie
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: back with a vengeance
Posts: 3,307
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Quote:
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This may also be why Phil Hellmuth opted for 'insurance' within a big hand in the High Stakes Poker TV Show vs Barry Greenstien where he was ~80% favourite but opted for taking ~70% of the pot there and then.
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I remember this being talked about on 2p2, about how hellmuth passed up like 16k? in EV here...
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bdawg56kg
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Full House
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Honolulu
Posts: 1,201
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by andy-akb
Ive read threads here that raising for information is overused, I just dont know how it would be in this situation. Again, Ive only put in like 20k hands in NL cash games, so while I have a general idea of what Im doing, I dont know all that much. If I raise this flop and get reraised, I fold knowing Im beat against this opponent. If I call and then the turn comes a blank, but he leads again for a bet of the same size [proportionally to the pot] I personally dont know where I would stand in that situation as in my eyes nothing really changed from the flop. How would you interpret a bet from the villain on a blank turn? What is the information that you would have?
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Against most ABC nitty opponents (like the villian in this hand), you can safely fold to further aggression on the turn, like a 3/4 pot bet. Of course if he bets small like 1/2 pot or something I probably just call again and re-evaluate on the river. This advice may sound retarded, but that is the reason why folding preflop is the best option, since the only hand you realistically beat is KK.
Also, one thing I left out that I think is pretty obvious but very important, is that just calling the flop bet controls the pot size. If you raise this flop and get called, you are looking at a 40-50BB pot with a hand that is almost always beat. Calling the flop bet results in only a 20BB (or so) pot. With two streets of betting to come and a very realistic chance that you may be betting into a better made hand, pot control is essential.
Quote:
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Originally Posted by sinkrox
bdawg56kg, very good points... I totally agree with you, though it is worth considering weather a high varience game will actually affect your game - normally it doesnt for me, though Ive just recovered from a 6-buy-in downswing over just ~1-2k hands... so any more high varience / more downswing would nock my confidence more/ Whereas if i can recover, my confidence will return and my game will be better. This is why I was trying to play with slightly lessor varience. Something I rarely do (I dont often downswing 6buy-ins).
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I understand your position 100% and have been there myself. I would suggest dropping down a limit instead of playing a passive, low-variance game if you are recovering from a downswing. Also, if you normally play 6-max, you could try switching to full ring for a while. This should help reduce variance. But the main point is that you shouldn't change your game when running bad (unless you have leaks you are trying to fix). Good luck!
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Lukie
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: back with a vengeance
Posts: 3,307
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Quote:
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But the main point is that you should try to change your game when running bad (Think about what Lukie would do in any given spot). Good luck!
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FYP
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Miffed22001
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Marry Me Cheryl!!!
Posts: 8,181
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i would rather call in this spot with 32s or 68o than AK.
I think that flop ony results in the loss of your stack. Unless you can put him on AK/TT/KK there is no way you even want to think about playing this pot.
The worst thing imo about 10/3 players is they take their hands much to far post flop. You have zero fold equity on this flop
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