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dsaxton

10-01-2005, 05:37 AM Post subject: Um...

#1 (permalink)

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Never really seen this guy before this session, but he struck me as a fish the couple hands I saw him play. I think he was slow-playing a set on the flop. What do you put him on, and do you call or fold?

PokerStars Game #2700094257: Hold'em No Limit ($2/$4) - 2005/10/01 - 01:33:30 (ET)
Table 'Asplinda' Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: MiracleFlop ($488.70 in chips)
Seat 2: AZdave1974 ($448.95 in chips)
Seat 3: taywilson200 ($396 in chips)
Seat 5: jd075 ($219 in chips)
Seat 6: Pred or Prey ($114 in chips)
Seat 7: kshoe20 ($449.15 in chips)
Seat 8: dsaxton ($853 in chips)
Seat 9: rdegs21 ($601.65 in chips)
taywilson200: posts small blind $2
jd075: posts big blind $4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to dsaxton [Qc Qs]
Pred or Prey: calls $4
kshoe20: calls $4
dsaxton: raises $12 to $16
rdegs21: folds
MiracleFlop: folds
AZdave1974: calls $16
taywilson200: folds
jd075: folds
Pred or Prey: calls $12
kshoe20: calls $12
*** FLOP *** [4s 2d 7s]
Pred or Prey: bets $16
kshoe20: folds
dsaxton: raises $36 to $52
AZdave1974: calls $52
Pred or Prey: folds
*** TURN *** [4s 2d 7s] [Jh]
dsaxton: checks
AZdave1974: bets $380.95 and is all-in
dsaxton: ???

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Demiparadigm

10-01-2005, 05:45 AM

#2 (permalink)

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I don't think sets overbet- push.

but then I don't think any hand makes this play...

I have a hard time not calling...
since when this guy gives his money away I want it to be to me...

The J is a complete blank. I don't get it.
A good player may make this move with JJ hoping you have AA/KK.

I don't know. I fold teling myself I can find a better spot.
I then go on mini tilt for a few hands...

To win in poker you only need to be one step ahead of your opponents. Two steps may be detrimental.

Deadmoney

10-01-2005, 05:52 AM

#3 (permalink)

Join Date: Sep 2004

Posts: 21

I think that AJ spades could be a real possibility here, but a set is also possible...though if he had a set with that board I don't see why he would push when he could check and let you lead out again, then drop the hammer on the river.

If I had previously read him to be a fish I would probably make a crying call here...though it's a tough desicion. Against a player I knew to be competent it may be a different story.

dsaxton

10-01-2005, 05:55 AM

#4 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Demiparadigm

I don't think sets overbet open- push.

but then I don't think any hand makes this play...

I have a hard time not calling...
since when this guy gives his money away I want it to be to me...

The J is a complete blank. I don't get it.
A good player may make this move with JJ hoping you have AA/KK.

I don't know. I fold teling myself I can find a better spot.
I then go on mini tilt for a few hands...

Well, what hands can "just call" a bet and a $52 raise here? He didn't even think before calling, then *immediately* went all-in when I checked to him. Most people would at least hesitate before attempting a $400 bluff.

I had decided on the flop that if he called my raise, then he was most likely slow-playing, because I thought it was a prohibitively large raise for any drawing hand, and one that he couldn't call with a marginal hand either.

Who knows? Maybe this guy is capable of chasing to the tune of $50 in this situation. But, if he's capable of chasing with no odds whatsoever, he's equally capable of slow-playing in a situation where he should be protecting his hand against draws.

dsaxton

10-01-2005, 06:06 AM

#5 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Deadmoney

I don't know. I just don't really like calling off $400 in a situation this borderline. Like when I only have one pair and my opponent is making a play very consistent with a slow-played monster, and I have no read on him whatsoever.

Demiparadigm

10-01-2005, 06:37 AM

#6 (permalink)

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The more I think about it the more it looks like top pair.
Any legitimate hand makes a pot size bet here.
or its like he has 78 and thinks you have overcards...

I still fold.
but I still think you folded the best hand.

A lot of players will push here with the nut flush draw.

"I think I can make him fold, but if not I have a lot of outs"

To win in poker you only need to be one step ahead of your opponents. Two steps may be detrimental.

dsaxton

10-01-2005, 06:39 AM

#7 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Demiparadigm

The more I think about it the more it looks like top pair.
Any legitimate hand makes a pot size bet here.
Its like he has JT and thinks you have overcards...

I still fold.
but I still think you folded the best hand.

You say he wouldn't push all-in with a set, but he would push all-in with a weaker made hand? Why?

Demiparadigm

10-01-2005, 06:44 AM

#8 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by dsaxton

Quote:

Originally Posted by Demiparadigm

You say he wouldn't push all-in with a set, but he would push all-in with a weaker made hand? Why?

Just my experience.

a set wants to value bet, as does any other hand that beats you. I think only a good player against a good player makes this big a bet with a hand that is really strong..

(though you see more value-pushes at 50NL and below)

I think you beat anyone who bets more than $200 on this turn, unless he is intelligent enough to put you on an overpair AND assume that you will think his bet looks like he is trying to push you out of the pot.

As it is, I think he really was just trying to push you out of the pot.

To win in poker you only need to be one step ahead of your opponents. Two steps may be detrimental.

Demiparadigm

10-01-2005, 06:48 AM

#9 (permalink)

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BTW, what do you do if he bets $100? OR $50?

I also hate your check fold on the turn in general.
I lead here 100% of the time. I don't want to give a free card to a flush draw, and I don't want him to bluff me out of the pot.

It would be VERY hard for him to raise-bluff here if you bet, wheras checking shows weakness and makes a bluff more likely.

I probably continue with another $50-$150, folding to a raise...

though I do understand your putting him on a slowplayed set...
remember, I am just reading the hand history, I have no table experience.

If that was your read, stick with it, and don't let me make you secind guess yourself.

To win in poker you only need to be one step ahead of your opponents. Two steps may be detrimental.

dsaxton

10-01-2005, 06:49 AM

#10 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Demiparadigm

Quote:

Originally Posted by dsaxton

Quote:

Originally Posted by Demiparadigm

You say he wouldn't push all-in with a set, but he would push all-in with a weaker made hand? Why?

But a lot of inexperienced players actually do this. They *hugely* overbet their monster hands when they bet them.

But, I think it's primarily the flop play that gives his hand away. Smooth calling $52 is just too obvious.

Demiparadigm

10-01-2005, 06:53 AM

#11 (permalink)

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Quote:

But a lot of inexperienced players actually do this. They *hugely* overbet their monster hands when they bet them.

Yeah, which is why I still fold.

Also why i mentioned you see there "value pushes" at $50NL and below.

One more thing, although I think you have the best hand here more than half the time, He still has outs when you have him beaten, and you are drawing very slim when you are behind.
This combined with the fact that you can find more +EV things to do with $400, tips this to a fold.

To win in poker you only need to be one step ahead of your opponents. Two steps may be detrimental.

dsaxton

10-01-2005, 07:05 AM

#12 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Demiparadigm

I also hate your check fold on the turn in general.

From my experience, a reaction like this signals a monster 90% of the time, so I checked simply because I suspected my queens weren't good.

Perhaps some sort of a bet would have been better, but I don't think checking is too bad.

Demiparadigm

10-01-2005, 07:14 AM

#13 (permalink)

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He called 4xbb raise preflop, then called on the flop with position getting 3 to 1.

I don't think this means "monster" a wide range could make these plays.

I often would play AsJs the same
(not that I advocate calling preflop with AJs, just that I may depending on my opponent)

To win in poker you only need to be one step ahead of your opponents. Two steps may be detrimental.

Muxy

10-01-2005, 07:15 AM

#14 (permalink)

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This is a tough play. I would lean to fold.

bair

10-01-2005, 10:35 PM

#15 (permalink)

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i call, looks like he hit his jack w/ a flush draw

ender555

10-02-2005, 07:28 AM

#16 (permalink)

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definitely think he has a set here. either that or something like 88 0r 99. if he had a flush draw i doubt he would've called there, and then pushed on turn. i think he wouldv'e just shoved on the flop if he was that type of player. it's possible he had something like QJs flush draw and figured he had 2 over's and draw but i doubt it.

DaNutsInYoEye

10-02-2005, 08:08 AM

#17 (permalink)

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I honestly don't know what to put him on, and it doesn't really even matter. If he has a set, two pair, a flush draw or if he is bluffing I'm still doing the same thing: folding. I'd be inclined to think I was beat, but if someone is willing to bet 100BB on a bluff then I'm willing to lay down an overpair.

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