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two pair monotone board yawn?

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stuck

05-31-2006, 09:19 PM Post subject: two pair monotone board *yawn?*

#1 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Aug 2004

Posts: 586

Villain's 37/13/2.8 over 71 hands. After the re-raise I figured him for a highpair (mainly AA/KK, QQ probably not. Maybe AK). $3.50 to call into a $10ish pot PF.

The only thing I think I might do differently is try to C/R him all in. But I'm not sure about that play.

Nevertheless, I think this is more-or-less standard.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (10 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

saw flop|saw showdown

MP1 ($22.84)
MP2 ($11.50)
Hero ($49.75)
CO ($55.94)
Button =#A500AF(Villain)/ ($55.30)
SB ($54.40)
BB ($50.90)
UTG ($26.70)
UTG+1 ($50.90)
UTG+2 ($113.47)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 6

, 5

. CO posts a blind of $0.75. SB posts a blind of $0.25.
4 folds, MP2 calls $0.50, Hero raises to $2.5, 1 fold, Button =#A500AF(Villain)/ raises to $6, 2 folds, MP2 folds, Hero calls $3.50.

Flop: ($14) 6

, 5

, Q

(2 players)
Hero bets $10, Villain calls $49.30 (All-In), Hero calls $33.75 (All-In).

Turn: ($107.05) 8

(2 players, 2 all-in)

River: ($107.05) 7

(2 players, 2 all-in)

Final Pot: $107.05

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I'd drop in the evening..

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andy-akb

05-31-2006, 09:35 PM

#2 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jan 2006

Location: Maine

Posts: 1,836

Preflop I think the raise is fine, but I dont like calling the button reraise, with deeper stacks maybe, but here Im really not sure if 100BB stacks are enough to make this play profitable. On the flop its a tough spot to be in. Id lead out for a PSB and try to 3bet AI; however the push over our bet is a little scary. 3betting AI gives us some folding equity, here we have none and I think the push does limit your opponents range. You are drawing dead against QQ, and I think that the only other pocket pairs he would play like this would be AdAx KdKx or AdKx/AxKd and maybe AdQx all of which are almost exactly 50/50. So you are either going to be drawing dead or flipping, Id fold to this push unless I have some read on villain that makes me think he would do this with less.

stuck

05-31-2006, 09:55 PM

#3 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Aug 2004

Posts: 586

From what I saw of him, I thought he would be unable to lay down an over-pair basically no matter what the board.

The push did make me pause, but to be honest, I expected it regardless of whether or not he had a diamond. He seemed like one of those players who expect KK to win all the time with no A on the board, and AA to ALWAYS win and when it doesn't OMG poker's rigged. Given that, I thought this was a good call.

Perhaps the fact that I could be drawing slim or dead should give me more pause.

Still, I'm getting 1.7:1 to call the push, which beats a flip and may make up for the times that he has QQ here.

If I had a hammer
I'd drop in the morning
I'd drop in the evening..

andy-akb

05-31-2006, 11:00 PM

#4 (permalink)

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Yea I understand he may not be able to get away from an overpair, but I feel most players wouldnt simply push an overpair, they would raise and call a 3bet AI. The push could mean 1 of two things, he has an overpair and is trying to protect it, or he has a hand that you are at best a coinflip against, Im really not sure what the "correct" play would be here, but I dont think calling is horrible and it easily could be the right play. I want to see what other more experienced [than me] players have to say.

stuck

05-31-2006, 11:15 PM

#5 (permalink)

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Join Date: Aug 2004

Posts: 586

Also, to nitpick, even if he has QQ, I'm not drawing completely dead. I could still hit the runner-runner 55 or 66 for the win!

If I had a hammer
I'd drop in the morning
I'd drop in the evening..

andy-akb

06-01-2006, 12:54 AM

#6 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by stuck

Also, to nitpick, even if he has QQ, I'm not drawing completely dead. I could still hit the runner-runner 55 or 66 for the win!

Haha yea, and that happens 0.20% of the time. But yea anyways, I still am unsure about this and am curious what others have to say.

Renton

06-01-2006, 01:02 AM

#7 (permalink)

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I think its a clear fold to the 3bet preflop. As played, This is a really tough flop. AxAd, KxKd, AxKd, AdKx, XdXd, and QQ are all ahead of you. I probably check fold the flop.

stuck

06-01-2006, 03:04 AM

#8 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Aug 2004

Posts: 586

Quote:

Originally Posted by Renton

I think its a clear fold to the 3bet preflop. As played, This is a really tough flop. AxAd, KxKd, AxKd, AdKx, XdXd, and QQ are all ahead of you. I probably check fold the flop.

I really think XdXd are outside of his re-raising range there.

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 53.7626 % 53.38% 00.38% { AcAd, AdAh, AdAs, KcKd, KdKh, KdKs, QcQh, QcQs, QhQs, AcKd, AdKc, AdKh, AdKs, AhKd, AsKd, AdQc, AdQh, AdQs }
Hand 2: 46.2374 % 45.86% 00.38% { 6h5h }

I think that hand range is the absolute worst case scenario. I'm still getting odds to call the push after I bet. If you expand to include all QQ+, and AdQx, and AdKd (very unlikely, in my opinion).

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 48.4465 % 47.63% 00.82% { QQ+, AdKd, AcKd, AdKc, AdKh, AdKs, AhKd, AsKd, AdQc, AdQh, AdQs }
Hand 2: 51.5535 % 50.74% 00.82% { 6h5h }

I can see that maybe I should have folded this preflop and waited for a time where more money was behind (or I was in position (and preferably both)) Still, I'm fairly confident that if I hit hard I stack him (with marginal cases being these ones).

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 30.6073 % 30.38% 00.22% { 6h5h }
Hand 2: 69.3927 % 69.17% 00.22% { JJ+, AQs+, AKo }

But check/fold flop? Doesn't that seem a little weak/tight to you after I hit two pair and it's heads up? Chances are good that he doesn't even have a diamond.

If I had a hammer
I'd drop in the morning
I'd drop in the evening..

Renton

06-01-2006, 04:13 AM

#9 (permalink)

Straight Flush

Join Date: Jan 2006

Location: Atlanta, GA, USA

Posts: 5,991

Quote:

Originally Posted by stuck

But check/fold flop? Doesn't that seem a little weak/tight to you after I hit two pair and it's heads up? Chances are good that he doesn't even have a diamond.

Think about it though. You have to assume he has an overpair AT LEAST. You don't have very good equity against an overpair. Plus, since we both agree he probably has a pair, than that means he has TWO chances to have the flush draw, out of a possible four.

You are either, sorta ahead, sorta behind, or way behind here.

mcatdog

06-01-2006, 04:37 AM

#10 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Renton

I think its a clear fold to the 3bet preflop. As played, This is a really tough flop. AxAd, KxKd, AxKd, AdKx, XdXd, and QQ are all ahead of you. I probably check fold the flop.

He's actually better than 60-40 against AdKx and AxKd. Against an overpair with a diamond, yes he's barely behind but his equity improves a lot if he check-calls the flop and pushes the turn if it's not a diamond or a queen. And I think it's quite possible that the villain has an overpair and no diamond in which case he's nearly 3:1 to win. Check-folding this flop is terrible IMO.

stuck

06-01-2006, 04:12 PM

#11 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Aug 2004

Posts: 586

Quote:

Originally Posted by mcatdog

but his equity improves a lot if he check-calls the flop and pushes the turn if it's not a diamond or a queen.

Hmm. I never really considered a c/c push line, I guess because I'm so used to playing two pair fast. Do you fold if he pushes the flop?

If I had a hammer
I'd drop in the morning
I'd drop in the evening..

stuck

06-07-2006, 08:50 PM

#12 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Aug 2004

Posts: 586

For the results oriented:

Final Pot: $107.05

Hero has 6h 5h (two pair, sixes and fives).
Button has Kh Kc (one pair, kings).
Outcome: Hero wins $101.50. Button wins $5.55.

If I had a hammer
I'd drop in the morning
I'd drop in the evening..

Renton

06-07-2006, 09:56 PM

#13 (permalink)

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Location: Atlanta, GA, USA

Posts: 5,991

KK wasn't that much behind you

Fnord

06-07-2006, 11:54 PM

#14 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Renton

KK wasn't that much behind you

It's only close if he has a club.

990 games 0.050 secs 19,800 games/sec

Board: Qd 6d 5d
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 73.1818 % 70.91% 02.27% { 6h5h }
Hand 2: 26.8182 % 24.55% 02.27% { KcKh }

I would check and take it from there. I really don't mind giving away a free card here. I probably check/raise bomb though.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

Renton

06-08-2006, 12:03 AM

#15 (permalink)

Straight Flush

Join Date: Jan 2006

Location: Atlanta, GA, USA

Posts: 5,991

Its still less than 3:1 though. This is what makes two pair suck so much. You rarely have someone drawing practically dead when you have two pair, but you are very often forced to call all in with two pair against hands that have you drawing practically dead.

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two pair monotone board *yawn?*

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two pair monotone board yawn?