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Turning an overpair into a bluff

  
 
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oskar
Old 07-03-2009, 01:26 PM     Post subject: Turning an overpair into a bluff #1 (permalink)  
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 Villain is 22/14, 100% c-bet in 5 spots, over 85 hands.
I don't think I can call the turn for value only. He might be 2-barreling an Ah, but I think he has JJ+ or a set there a lot. I don't like folding so I decided to call, check behind if the river is a blank, and insta-shove a heart if he checks.
if he blockbets any river, I hate life.
Sounds good?

There was a poster in case you're wondering about his opening size.

$0.5/$1 No Limit Holdem
9 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($20.50)
UTG+1 ($101.50)
MP1 ($100.00)
MP2 ($104.50)
MP3 ($126.90)
CO ($100.00)
Hero (BTN) ($116.05)
SB ($118.85)
BB ($20.00)
[CO posted $1]

Pre-flop: ($2.50, 9 players) Hero is BTN
2 folds, MP1 raises to $5, 3 folds, Hero calls $5, 2 folds

Flop: ($12.50, 2 players)
MP1 bets $10, Hero calls $10

Turn: ($32.50, 2 players)
MP1 bets $25.50, Hero ???
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Parasurama
Old 07-03-2009, 08:18 PM #2 (permalink)  
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I don't really see how you can be good often enough to check behind if he checks the river. If you call this bet imo you should bet the river if checked to
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oskar
Old 07-03-2009, 11:16 PM #3 (permalink)  
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oskar has a spectacular aura aboutoskar has a spectacular aura aboutoskar has a spectacular aura about
 I just don't think JJ+ are folding a non heart river nearly enough... so I guess just folding the turn would be an option.
The strengh of a hero is defined by the weakness of his villains.
 
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Deanglow
Old 07-03-2009, 11:19 PM #4 (permalink)  
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 yeah it makes baby jesus cry and kills a kitten or something but folding seems like the only good option
 
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daven
Old 07-05-2009, 08:59 AM #5 (permalink)  
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 folding turn here makes more sense than any plan to bluff
think about it, you're hoping to generate a fold from a player you called for set value - something is inconsistent here
you know i can't read your ghost sig bro, i've been internalising a really complicated situation in my head
allin, reload, repeat

please read: http://www.philgalfond.com/lets-make-some-changes/
 
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oskar
Old 07-05-2009, 06:48 PM #6 (permalink)  
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oskar has a spectacular aura aboutoskar has a spectacular aura aboutoskar has a spectacular aura about
 I did not call for set value.
Looking back, I agree that folding is probably best.

I think it's close though, but lately I think if I have a close decision and one has less deviation than the other, I should go with the nittier option just to make my game less swingy... I've gone from 18/16 to 14/12 in the last couple of weeks.
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BankItDrew
Old 07-08-2009, 10:40 AM #7 (permalink)  
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 villain obv has a strong hand
your equity is brutal
patience grasshopper
 
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Robb
Old 07-08-2009, 10:45 AM #8 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BankItDrew
patience grasshopper
My Operation and A Classic FTR Rethread
 
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