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elipsesjeff
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01-16-2009, 06:43 PM
Post subject: TT vs Reg 200nl
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#1 (permalink)
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Moderator
Join Date: Jul 2004
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He's got 3bet % of 6% in the SB so I'm assuming he'd reraise me with AQ+ and QQ+ preflop. So his calling range preflop includes: any pair, suited broadways. I need some help figuring out how often this guy will have the missed flush draw here over valuebetting 88 and JJ for me to make this call, given I'm getting 2.5-1.
His stats are: 17/10 over 2k hands at folds to cbet 65%.
FWIW, UTG was a monkey (and I was stacking off vs).
No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (7 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
saw flop
BB ($120)
UTG ($123)
MP1 ($78)
MP2 ($110.35)
CO ($37)
Hero (Button) ($200)
CK the 1 (SB) ($198)
Preflop: Hero is Button with 10 , 10
UTG calls $2, 3 folds, Hero raises $8, CK the 1 calls $7, 1 fold, UTG calls $6
Flop: ($26) 4 , 4, 8 (3 players)
CK the 1 checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $18, CK the 1 calls $18, 1 fold
Turn: ($62) 2 (2 players)
CK the 1 checks, Hero checks
River: ($62) 4 (2 players)
CK the 1 bets $40, Hero...
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STHollywood
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: New York
Posts: 107
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You dont think his range includes smaller pocket pairs than yours betting for value?
I don't feel you don't look incredibly strong here and maybe he is hoping you'll look him Ax?
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grindinginnj
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Straight
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: Grinding In New Jersey!!
Posts: 143
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Easy call.Imo
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Stackin chips and rippin lips!!
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elipsesjeff
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Moderator
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Northern Virginia
Posts: 4,900
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by STHollywood
You dont think his range includes smaller pocket pairs than yours betting for value?
I don't feel you don't look incredibly strong here and maybe he is hoping you'll look him Ax?
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If he has 77 and thinks I have AK, is he going to bet 2/3 pot on the river and expect me to call? I could see 1/3-1/2 pot but if he were to put $40 in the pot then I expect him to check/call it rather than bet it.
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elipsesjeff
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Moderator
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by grindinginnj
Easy call.Imo
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Nice post.
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al yell
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Flush
Join Date: Oct 2008
Posts: 515
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after turn goes ch/ch his river bet is a bluff/smaller pp often enough imo. Folding is weak and there's prob not much value in raising. I call.
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BankItDrew
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Losing Prop Bets
Posts: 2,789
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This is a snap call. Raising is out of the question because there is no value in it, unless villain is an uber donk and you have a sick read that he'll call with weaker. Awesome check on the turn, this is a great hand for two streets of value.
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,546
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If he's decent I doubt he gets to the river with the range he'd need to to make this a call.
You're cbetting into 3 players so I just feel like he's probably not peeling the flop awfully light.
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BankItDrew
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Losing Prop Bets
Posts: 2,789
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by bigspenda73
If he's decent I doubt he gets to the river with the range he'd need to to make this a call.
You're cbetting into 3 players so I just feel like he's probably not peeling the flop awfully light.
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Yeah you're right. I think he has 88 on second thought..
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Girlfriend: Why are the werewolves more important than living life?!
Girlfriend: Are you on the forums doing the werewolves again?
Girlfriend: Soo... you forgot to run that errand, but you had time to werewolf? Wtf?
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,546
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Guessing that's sarcasm, just feel like we're hoping to get shown 99 when I feel like he'll have JJ/88 a lot more.
Also, if UTG is bad perhaps he flats stronger hands PF than he'd normally 3bet to keep him in the pot.
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al yell
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Flush
Join Date: Oct 2008
Posts: 515
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by BankItDrew
I think he has 88 on second thought..
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not likely imo. then again, i've made a decent amount of marginal river calls!
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BankItDrew
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Losing Prop Bets
Posts: 2,789
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Meh... I sum up a loss here to a cooler and sum up wins to bad plays. Both are fine.
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Girlfriend: Why are the werewolves more important than living life?!
Girlfriend: Are you on the forums doing the werewolves again?
Girlfriend: Soo... you forgot to run that errand, but you had time to werewolf? Wtf?
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al yell
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Flush
Join Date: Oct 2008
Posts: 515
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by bigspenda73
.... I feel like he'll have JJ/88 a lot more.
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villain's a nit and prob 3betting JJ from the SB. I'd rule it out. As for 88 basic card distribution makes it fairly unlikely that he has a pp at all and when he does I think it's almost always certainly smaller than ours (excluding 88 of course 'cause the chances of flopping a boat are small enough that I'm not worried about it). In addition I think it's a decent spot for Villain to bluff. A call also buys some valuable info..
I'd just feel dirty folding here.
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mcatdog
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: St. Louis
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by al yell
Quote:
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Originally Posted by bigspenda73
.... I feel like he'll have JJ/88 a lot more.
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villain's a nit and prob 3betting JJ from the SB. I'd rule it out. As for 88 basic card distribution makes it fairly unlikely that he has a pp at all and when he does I think it's almost always certainly smaller than ours (excluding 88 of course 'cause the chances of flopping a boat are small enough that I'm not worried about it). In addition I think it's a decent spot for Villain to bluff. A call also buys some valuable info. |
I disagree with every single sentence in this post.
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al yell
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Flush
Join Date: Oct 2008
Posts: 515
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by mcatdog
Quote:
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Originally Posted by al yell
Quote:
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Originally Posted by bigspenda73
.... I feel like he'll have JJ/88 a lot more.
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villain's a nit and prob 3betting JJ from the SB. I'd rule it out. As for 88 basic card distribution makes it fairly unlikely that he has a pp at all and when he does I think it's almost always certainly smaller than ours (excluding 88 of course 'cause the chances of flopping a boat are small enough that I'm not worried about it). In addition I think it's a decent spot for Villain to bluff. A call also buys some valuable info. |
I disagree with every single sentence in this post. |
lol, fair enough. kinda playing devil's advocate. I'm looking for every possible justification for a call here.
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nutsinho
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: flattin ur 4bets, makin u tilt
Posts: 3,280
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but mcat, would you fold this?
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mcatdog
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: St. Louis
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Quote:
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but mcat, would you fold this?
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It's close but no. I don't think villain is bluffing very often at all but I think he's likely to bet 99 for value, maybe even 77. Stars 1/2 is weird, most of the regs go for retardedly thin value on the river all the time but they don't bluff anywhere near enough to compensate, thus making their thin value bets terrible vs. anyone with a clue. We're getting the right odds vs. a range of QQ-88,44 so I'd call expecting to lose most of the time.
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elipsesjeff
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Moderator
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Northern Virginia
Posts: 4,900
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by mcatdog
It's close but no. I don't think villain is bluffing very often at all but I think he's likely to bet 99 for value, maybe even 77. Stars 1/2 is weird, most of the regs go for retardedly thin value on the river all the time but they don't bluff anywhere near enough to compensate, thus making their thin value bets terrible vs. anyone with a clue. We're getting the right odds vs. a range of QQ-88,44 so I'd call expecting to lose most of the time.
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This was exactly what I was looking for, thank you. I didn't include 44 in my range and I agree he doesn't raise JJ-QQ here all the time preflop (and probably correct to do so). Against 88-QQ we have just enough equity to call by like 1%. I guess if he ever shows up with a flush draw or 77 then its def a bad fold.
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,546
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yea after discussing this hand it's a call due to pot-odds, I was forgetting about dem pesky little maff numbers.
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nutsinho
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: flattin ur 4bets, makin u tilt
Posts: 3,280
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he cold calls 7% and you guys arent even mentioning the possibility of 8x in his range.
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