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Trips vs flush Board

  
 
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Chicago_Kid
Old 05-31-2005, 05:29 AM     Post subject: Trips vs flush Board #1 (permalink)  
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Prop215 just sat down, anyone see a call here with trips?

***** Hand History for Game 2132478257 *****
$25 NL Hold'em - Tuesday, May 31, 01:20:25 EDT 2005
Table Table 37347 (Real Money)
Seat 7 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 5: Prop215 ( $9.51 )
Seat 7: Luck_2_U_2 ( $50.66 )
Seat 8: Chicago_Kid ( $47 )
Seat 9: pakileka ( $10.73 )
Seat 10: ReyesoReinas ( $22.8 )
Seat 1: PaleAleDale ( $24.4 )
Seat 6: MiCathy ( $6.67 )
Seat 3: rockl33t ( $24.25 )
Seat 2: neutron212 ( $23.25 )
Seat 4: rrosplock ( $24.75 )
Chicago_Kid posts small blind [$0.1].
pakileka posts big blind [$0.25].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Chicago_Kid [ 6c 6s ]
ReyesoReinas calls [$0.25].
PaleAleDale calls [$0.25].
neutron212 calls [$0.25].
Chicago_Kid: love that play
rockl33t folds.
rrosplock calls [$0.25].
Prop215 calls [$0.25].
MiCathy folds.
Luck_2_U_2 folds.
Chicago_Kid calls [$0.15].
pakileka checks.
** Dealing Flop ** [ Th, 4h, 6h ]
Chicago_Kid checks.
pakileka bets [$0.25].
ReyesoReinas folds.
PaleAleDale calls [$0.25].
neutron212 raises [$1].
rrosplock folds.
Prop215 raises [$3].
>You have options at Table 39774 Table!.
Chicago_Kid folds.
pakileka folds.
PaleAleDale folds.
neutron212 calls [$2].
** Dealing Turn ** [ 7d ]
neutron212 bets [$0.5].
Prop215 raises [$4].
neutron212 calls [$3.5].
** Dealing River ** [ 3d ]
neutron212 checks.
>You have options at Table 39774 Table!.
Prop215 is all-In [$2.26]
neutron212 calls [$2.26].
neutron212 shows [ Ts, Ah ] a pair of tens.
Prop215 shows [ 4d, 4s ] three of a kind, fours.
Prop215 wins $19.77 from the main pot with three of a kind, fours.
"Been gone so long, forgot how to poker"
 
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a500lbgorilla
Old 05-31-2005, 05:36 AM #2 (permalink)  
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You have odds and implied odds to fill up. Why fold?

-'rilla

Smithers, use the amnesia ray.
You mean the revolver, sir?
Precisely.
 
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journey075
Old 05-31-2005, 05:49 AM #3 (permalink)  
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im raising the flop, forget folding.
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Chicago_Kid
Old 05-31-2005, 05:54 AM #4 (permalink)  
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If I had this guy for several more hands, I would have done so. But, yeah I felt like an idiot after folding this.
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journey075
Old 05-31-2005, 06:08 AM #5 (permalink)  
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the chances of flopping a flush are so low its ridiculous, something like .002%. theres a good chance the leading hand was A10 with an A of hearts. im def raising to make their drawing hands go down in value. if you get raised hard however, you can let go if you dont have pot odds anymore.
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dsaxton
Old 05-31-2005, 06:34 AM #6 (permalink)  
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I would fold. Neutron could very well reraise behind you, and it's already a semi-loose call hoping that the board pairs.
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journey075
Old 05-31-2005, 07:09 AM #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dsaxton
I would fold. Neutron could very well reraise behind you, and it's already a semi-loose call hoping that the board pairs.
the chances of someone having the flush are so goddamn small and if someone does hit it theyll most likely slowplay considering the stakes.

you have to offer me some hard evidence im beat before i stop betting this.
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dsaxton
Old 05-31-2005, 08:03 AM #8 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by journey075
Quote:
Originally Posted by dsaxton
I would fold. Neutron could very well reraise behind you, and it's already a semi-loose call hoping that the board pairs.
the chances of someone having the flush are so goddamn small and if someone does hit it theyll most likely slowplay considering the stakes.

you have to offer me some hard evidence im beat before i stop betting this.
The chances change when there's a raise and a reraise.
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sinky
Old 05-31-2005, 11:54 AM #9 (permalink)  
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Journey075 wrote
Quote:
the chances of flopping a flush are so low its ridiculous, something like .002%
Once there are 3 cards of the same suit on the flop then the odds that someone has a flush are a lot higher than 0.002%.

In this case 5 opponents managed to limp in and saw the flop. Lets assume that nobody folded suited cards pf . The odds that someone hit the flush are 1 - (odds that everyone missed). ie) 1 - (0.958*0.958*0.958*0.958*0.958) = 0.19 -> 19%

So 19% of the time you are behind to a flush, but you have a 37% chance that you will improve to a FH or Quads.

Think I am making a big raise here every time.
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a500lbgorilla
Old 05-31-2005, 12:02 PM #10 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dsaxton
I would fold. Neutron could very well reraise behind you, and it's already a semi-loose call hoping that the board pairs.
Then he'd have odds to call on his draw.

-'rilla

Smithers, use the amnesia ray.
You mean the revolver, sir?
Precisely.
 
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a500lbgorilla
Old 05-31-2005, 12:03 PM #11 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by journey075
Quote:
Originally Posted by dsaxton
I would fold. Neutron could very well reraise behind you, and it's already a semi-loose call hoping that the board pairs.
the chances of someone having the flush are so goddamn small and if someone does hit it theyll most likely slowplay considering the stakes.

you have to offer me some hard evidence im beat before i stop betting this.
Doesn't mean it won't happen. And even if it only happens 1% of the time, its a full buyin mistake everytime you say, "its too small to happen to me."

-'rilla

Smithers, use the amnesia ray.
You mean the revolver, sir?
Precisely.
 
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Chicago_Kid
Old 05-31-2005, 01:34 PM #12 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla
Quote:
Originally Posted by journey075
Quote:
Originally Posted by dsaxton
I would fold. Neutron could very well reraise behind you, and it's already a semi-loose call hoping that the board pairs.
the chances of someone having the flush are so goddamn small and if someone does hit it theyll most likely slowplay considering the stakes.

you have to offer me some hard evidence im beat before i stop betting this.
Doesn't mean it won't happen. And even if it only happens 1% of the time, its a full buyin mistake everytime you say, "its too small to happen to me."

-'rilla
Well, in retrospect, it looks like I was the only one of the three who bet the flop to play it incorrectly.

The guy who re-raised probably would not have raised as much with the nutz, but I was afraid of the guy behind me.

Another question: Position obviously was a problem for me here...would you all bet out to protect, or go for a checkraise?
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a500lbgorilla
Old 05-31-2005, 03:23 PM #13 (permalink)  
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If I was expecting a bet, i'm going to check-raise.

Here you shouldnt be expecting a bet becuase it was a limp pot, so I'll lead out with my normal lead out bet.

-'rilla

Smithers, use the amnesia ray.
You mean the revolver, sir?
Precisely.
 
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