www.flopturnriver.com

Poker Forum

Over 1,247,000 Posts!

Already Registered? Username: Password: Remember Forgot Password
Tweet

TPTK, +EV?

LinkBack

Thread Tools

Display Modes

ark4748

06-23-2006, 08:29 PM Post subject: TPTK, +EV?

#1 (permalink)

Join Date: Apr 2006

Posts: 85

I feel like I went from a donk who went too far with TPTK, to a weak nit who folds too easily. I've been trying to work on putting my money in situations which are +EV but don't involve sets or better.

Villan is 30/5 over 50 hands, $50NL.

Seat 1: Joshisaac ($20.90 in chips)
Seat 2: bigdaddy2927 ($54.85 in chips)
Seat 3: ARKman88 [ AD,QD ] ($48.75 in chips)
Seat 4: OhNoFSM ($38.70 in chips)
Seat 5: killer3141 ($70.30 in chips)
Seat 6: MayflowerAA ($67.10 in chips)
Seat 7: Boutch7 ($50.25 in chips)
Seat 8: DesertBelle ($40.25 in chips)
Seat 9: DreaddLord ($50.00 in chips)
Seat 10: Duder 420 ($33.00 in chips)
ANTES/BLINDS
DesertBelle posts blind ($0.25), DreaddLord posts blind ($0.50).

PRE-FLOP
Duder 420 bets $2, Joshisaac folds, bigdaddy2927 folds, ARKman88 calls $2, OhNoFSM folds, killer3141 folds, MayflowerAA folds, Boutch7 folds, DesertBelle folds, DreaddLord folds.

FLOP [board cards 3H,8C,9C ]
Duder 420 bets $5, ARKman88 calls $5.

Meh, my weakest part of the hand I think. Villan slightly overpotted the flop, so I doubt he improved. My thinking was I may be able to take away on the turn, but looking back at stack sizes, I'm starting to think this is a fold.

TURN [board cards 3H,8C,9C,QS ]
Duder 420 bets $26 and is all-in, ARKman88 calls $26.

Another overbet, although with villans stack size is understandable. Based on villans actions so far, I thought this was strong case for KK, AA and thus easy fold. But I began thinking that JJ, TT might play same way.

Board: 3h 8c 9c Qs
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 53.2468 % 53.25% 00.00% { AdQd }
Hand 2: 46.7532 % 46.75% 00.00% { KK+, JJ-TT }

Throw in AK or a few bluffs, and this would clearly be +EV. Of course, its always possible that villan had 99, QQ, etc, but seemed played too fast to be likely. My question is, is this a reasonable range to assign a villan given current action? Or is this KK, AA too much to make this a call?

Play for FREE and practice your game at...

Join the FTR Poker Forum to disable these banners and start posting!

andy-akb

06-23-2006, 09:28 PM

#2 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jan 2006

Location: Maine

Posts: 1,836

I fold this flop, the board is incredibly coordinated and he is going to be betting too many scare cards to let you float here. Given his stack size any bet will make it very unlikely that he will fold to a raise. Fold the flop. I dont see why he wouldnt play a set like this either, a lot of people raise any PP, so a set is pretty likely, Id expect to see an overpair more though.

ark4748

06-23-2006, 09:39 PM

#3 (permalink)

Join Date: Apr 2006

Posts: 85

Quote:

Originally Posted by andy-akb

What if he has a fullstack? I agree, flop call with his stack size is bad, for some reason I wasnt paying attention to the fact that he was only a half buy-in.

I didnt picture a 30/5 villan raising UTG with 33, although I suppose 88 or 99 are possible. So beat here more often that not, easy fold?

yorib

06-23-2006, 10:56 PM

#4 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Mar 2006

Location: Oak Park, IL

Posts: 281

You are forgetting 67+ (spefically, TJ, which he could easily have). I think adding JJ/TT to the range is wrong. He's either on a full-bore bluff, or has you drawing to (at most) 5 outs. This line could easily be KK/AA.

I'd fold the flop because there is no card in the deck that I want to hit. With a Q could be dead to KK/AA (or TJ). With an A I'm dead to AA/AK.

Miffed22001

06-24-2006, 01:41 AM

#5 (permalink)

Straight Flush

Join Date: Jun 2005

Location: Marry Me Cheryl!!!

Posts: 8,181

im going to say he has the straight
Im also going to ask if you ever raise here with just ace high? in a bid to push a player betting into you oop off what is often a better hand than yours but also normally weak.

ark4748

06-24-2006, 03:13 AM

#6 (permalink)

Join Date: Apr 2006

Posts: 85

Wow i must be really tight, I would never raise JT UTG in FR, and wouldnt have put it in 30/5's range either. Villan flipped over KK.

Miffed, maybe I have just been unlucky or maybe its just low stakes, but I seem to have little FE when I raise the flop. TP, overpair, draws, all seem to hang around, and then I'm left holding A-high. I've had more success betting/raising the turn, but with his stack size that was out of the question here. I can see now that with his stack,t raising/folding the flop was a much better option.

Latest Poker News
KoRnholio	05-26-2012, 03:08 PM Australia Legalized Online Poker coming up in next 6 to 12 Months
According to an email sent out by Mark Bryan, a gaming analyst at Merrill Lynch, the Australian government plans to legalize online poker sometime in the next six to 12 months. This move will coincide ... more at Poker Blogs »

« Previous Thread | Next Thread »

Thread Tools
Show Printable Version Email this Page
Display Modes
Linear Mode Switch to Hybrid Mode Switch to Threaded Mode

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads You may not post replies You may not post attachments You may not edit your posts BB code is On Smilies are On [IMG] code is On HTML code is Off Trackbacks are On Pingbacks are On Refbacks are On Forum Rules

All times are GMT. The time now is 11:29 PM.

Play Texas Holdem Online, Online Texas Holdem Strategy, & Poker Forum

This is not a gambling website.

Poker Forum

Over 1,247,000 Posts!

Poker Forum

Full Ring NL Hold'em

TPTK, +EV?

Play for FREE and practice your game at...