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TP & Nut Flush Draw Facing Raise

  
 
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zook
Old 06-29-2006, 05:38 AM     Post subject: TP & Nut Flush Draw Facing Raise #1 (permalink)  
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Like the push or am I a donk?

Party Poker - No Limit Holdem Ring game - Blinds: $0.25/$0.50 - 10 players
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Stack sizes:
UTG: $55
UTG+1: $50
Hero: $48
MP1: $31
MP2: $12
MP3: $67
CO: $26
Button: $84
SB: $62
BB: $15

Pre-flop: (10 players) Hero is UTG+2 with T A
2 folds, Hero raises to $2, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, MP3 calls, 2 folds, SB calls, BB folds.

Flop: 8 A 9 ($8.50, 4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $6, MP1 folds, MP3 raises to $15, SB folds, Hero Pushes???
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zook
Old 06-29-2006, 11:44 PM #2 (permalink)  
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{bump}

Not a play I normally make, would love a comment or two...
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DaHorror
Old 06-30-2006, 12:02 AM #3 (permalink)  
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If you are going to continue with the hand, I don't see why you don't push here. He might be able to fold TPGK or two pair, and owise you still have outs. Standard amount of hesitation time then all-in.

As to the 'am I a donk' thing ... you can be fairly certain (unless you have a specific read on this guy that says otherwise) that you are not ahead - in which case you are gambling straightup. As I'm sure you already know, you can't 100% count the Aces or Ts as outs, but at least partial outs so you've got 11-12ish outs say + possible fold equity. Not the worst place to gamble.
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givememyleg
Old 06-30-2006, 01:29 AM #4 (permalink)  
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 Who is MP3

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zook
Old 06-30-2006, 01:54 AM #5 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by givememyleg
Who is MP3
Unknown unfortunately. Less than 25 hands so I didn't have any PAHUD stats up for him.
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givememyleg
Old 06-30-2006, 03:12 AM #6 (permalink)  
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 I like the move.

That being said you're only a 47-53 dog against AJ+, with a few % difference if he has a J-K or not. You're a flip against A9, and actually ahead of A8/89. The only hands you don't wanna see are 88/99. 88-99 is definitely in his range, but you're ahead of his entire range. Gambooooooool!

Nice push, and if he did have you "beat" on the flop and it held up, meh move on to the next hand.

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givememyleg
Old 06-30-2006, 03:13 AM #7 (permalink)  
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 I guess a read/stat isn't that important, but I'd like to know if I had FE here also.

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WhooFleuryScores
Old 06-30-2006, 04:38 AM #8 (permalink)  
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Push and let him know all his chips are going in the pot if he wants to continue.
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zook
Old 06-30-2006, 03:13 PM #9 (permalink)  
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He called, had 9c8c and I didn't improve. But I was actually a slight favorite when all the chips went in. I guess I posted to find out whether people think I usually have any FE in this situation against an unknown, or whether this is always thought of a "flush draw push." Thanks for the replies.
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Rockymv
Old 06-30-2006, 03:37 PM #10 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by givememyleg
I guess a read/stat isn't that important, but I'd like to know if I had FE here also.
If he had no FE, this play would be bad. But he's always got at least a little bit of FE, and a little bit is all it takes to make this +EV.
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Fnord
Old 06-30-2006, 07:39 PM #11 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zook
guess I posted to find out whether people think I usually have any FE in this situation against an unknown, or whether this is always thought of a "flush draw push." Thanks for the replies.
Raises at this level are so tight, I think you see a better Ace a lot and fold out only worse hands with the push. People just aren't making plays and laying down good hands often enough.

After he raised the flop, I'm in check/call unimproved mode.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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