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Tough KK hand.. help pls!

  
 
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spino1i
Old 09-05-2005, 11:41 PM     Post subject: Tough KK hand.. help pls! #1 (permalink)  
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spino1i
Whats your play here and why? Villain is TAG

***** Hand History for Game 2660626193 *****
$200 NL Texas Hold'em - Monday, September 05, 19:37:42 EDT 2005
Table Table 48799 (Real Money)
Seat 5 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 2: LaCrevette ( $209.65 )
Seat 3: shbman ( $429.25 )
Seat 4: Shioji_One ( $199 )
Seat 6: imprimante ( $164.47 )
Seat 10: Rockinsky ( $456.25 )
Seat 9: Kingfish__ ( $266.55 )
Seat 5: nqxnpx ( $471.05 )
Seat 1: Heygood ( $339.60 )
Seat 7: hooper_jake ( $219.85 )
Seat 8: sumitupkid ( $70.90 )
imprimante posts small blind [$1].
hooper_jake posts big blind [$2].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Kingfish__ [ Kc Ks ]
sumitupkid folds.
>You have options at Table 51032 Table!.
Kingfish__ raises [$7].
Rockinsky folds.
>You have options at Table 49766 Table!.
Heygood calls [$7].
LaCrevette folds.
Shioji_One folds.
nqxnpx folds.
imprimante calls [$6].
hooper_jake calls [$5].
** Dealing Flop ** [ 6c, 8d, Td ]
imprimante checks.
hooper_jake checks.
Kingfish__ bets [$15].
Heygood raises [$45].
imprimante folds.
hooper_jake folds.
Kingfish__ ??
BR now: $106900
Playing now: $10/10/20 - $20/40 NL live, $10/20 NL full ring online, $10/20 NL 6-max online, $20/40 FL 6-max online, $100/200 FL live
Goal: $125000 for $25/50 NL live
 
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Laeelin
Old 09-06-2005, 12:21 AM #2 (permalink)  
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Laeelin
IMO...

Fold.

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A. Do you use correct bankroll management?
 
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spino1i
Old 09-06-2005, 12:51 AM #3 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Laeelin
IMO...

Fold.
reasoning?
BR now: $106900
Playing now: $10/10/20 - $20/40 NL live, $10/20 NL full ring online, $10/20 NL 6-max online, $20/40 FL 6-max online, $100/200 FL live
Goal: $125000 for $25/50 NL live
 
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Laeelin
Old 09-06-2005, 12:55 AM #4 (permalink)  
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Laeelin
I missread.. thought this was $100NL...

I was thinking AA or set as most likely hand...

In $200NL i'm not sure sure, never played that level.

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A. Do you use correct bankroll management?
 
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Devil_DOC_Hoorah
Old 09-09-2005, 06:40 PM #5 (permalink)  

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Devil_DOC_Hoorah
Fold.... Hey good is smooth calling the flop, which lets you know nothing... a $7 total raise usually means decent /big pocket pair. Really the only person who calls here are fellow pocket pairs, minimum AK. Your strong bet on flop now shows you to be aggressive which only means PP , flush draw is on board so he knows you are trying to protect and discourage the flush draw.... so he must have either a medium pp (lower than yours) cause if he had JJ or better he would have re-raised the pre-flop bet, or a SET and that aggressive raise is to see where he stands, i don't think he is liking the flush draw either, cause if that's what he is on he would smooth call the flop bet.... he knows by now you have a big PP at the least.... he either wants to see how committed you are to that PP against a big re-raise..... In my opinion he has a SET and is trying to lure you in, he has this already won!!! FOLD.... and if i'm wrong then i may need to re-evalute my reads. Good Luck and see you around, have played wit you a couple of times, tekkare man!!
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Zangief
Old 09-09-2005, 08:45 PM #6 (permalink)  
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Zangief
I think this is a big problem for me, too. I don't know whether this raise means:

1. I have you beat: 97, TT, 88, 66, T8, 86, T6, AA, Ad 6d.
2. I have you beat if you are betting an unimproved AK or lower pair: QQ, JJ, AT, maybe 99, 77.
3. I think your bet is weak and you will fold.

Why did you bet only $15 into a $28 pot? I think if you bet $25 here, #3 becomes less of a possibility.

If he is TAG, would he play 97, T8, 86, T6, Ad 6d, or AT for a raise?

If not, then I guess your decision is to figure out whether he hit a set or has an overpair he thinks is good (or maybe an underpair he thinks is good). I don't know how you do this without investing a whole lot more money, though.
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face
Old 09-10-2005, 12:13 AM #7 (permalink)  
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face
I think most of the time you can rule out sets and AA. AA will repop you preflop most of the time, and a set will reraise less than the full pot on that flop, even if there is a flush draw and a straight draw. I think a set will NOT bet like this very often if he knows that you can fold an overpair. Have you called any gigantic bets with AA or KK when the board was scary or the bettor was a rock? Any reads on this guy? He could easily have QQ or JJ here. Doubt he has AT unless he is a complete fish. His reraise is saying: "I have an overpair. Your AK or AQ is no good, and I don't want you to have 6 outs twice. I also don't want someone sucking out with a flush draw. Define your hand or fold." It is also possible that he has a middle pair like 9s or 7s which gives him gutshot outs. Finally, there is a chance that he has AK or AQ diamonds and is making a big semibluff, trying to take the hand down now but content to gamble it up. It's too bad you don't have a deeper stack here because I think a big 3-bet would clarify the situation. It would be horrible to let a semi-bluff catch a free/cheap card on the turn. Also, if you just call, what are you doing if he pushes the turn? I think the probabilities are:

10% stone bluff with overcards or 1 pair with suited connectors
10% really weirdly played AA
40% JJ or QQ
10% 2-pair (dependent on reads -- what range is he calling 7 pf raises with?)
20% some kind of semi-bluff with on average 8 or 9 outs
10% set or straight


You are only way behind here 20-30% of the time, but a lot of turns will make you puke. The question I'd ask myself is will he call an allin with JJ or QQ or overcards v. flush draw? If yes, push allin. If no, 3-bet 100 or so and plan on getting the rest in on most turns. If opponent is very tight/solid and you haven't seen him make any big moves in awhile, I could find a fold here. You only have 22$ in the pot and you can possibly find a better spot. That said, you could possibly double through many player's holdings here.
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Iconoclastic
Old 09-10-2005, 07:45 PM #8 (permalink)  
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By betting the Flop and folding you're turning KK overpair into 32o.
What's the difference between a large cheese pizza and a poker player?

A large cheese pizza can feed a family of four.
 
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DimitriT
Old 09-10-2005, 10:53 PM #9 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zangief
Why did you bet only $15 into a $28 pot?
With draws coming out the a$$ and three opps $15 is a weak probe bet which is begging to get raised. It almost looks like you are trying to buy it. How's your image right there?
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Surf_Thug
Old 09-11-2005, 04:36 AM #10 (permalink)  
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I can't understand how anyone could just fold in the face of one re-raise like this..

Your raise pre-flop could mean anything AK/AQ, and the flop bet could just be a simply continuation bet in his mind.

I would make it $100 to go and if he pushes then I can put him on a set and probably fold.

I do not play this level though so I'm not exactly sure how this works, but this seems like a weak weak fold to me. Don't you have to at least test a re-raise like this with a hand this strong? Even if I'm pretty sure he has a set of 6's or 8's, which seems to be the case, I would still re-raise probably just so people couldn't push me around when I have big hands..
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Old 09-11-2005, 04:53 AM #11 (permalink)  
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Well, if the villain was LAG and reraised all-in then he'd be pulling I-might-have-a-set-if-you-call-me-but-if-you-don't-I-have-nothing

But you can't fold here. The only good line of reasoning is that he put you on KK or AA with his pp, sees the flush draw and expects you to read his reraise as a semi-bluff DUE to the two flush cards. Reraise here and really consider a fold if he pushes.
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