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tough decision - am I thinking about this correctly?

  
 
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anthb7210p
Old 07-12-2007, 08:21 PM     Post subject: tough decision - am I thinking about this correctly? #1 (permalink)  

Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 14
anthb7210p
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

UTG ($0.59)
UTG+1 ($4.29)
MP1 ($7.30)
MP2 ($1.57)
CO ($1.02)
Button ($3.87)
Hero ($2.76)
BB ($3.92)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A, 2.
4 folds, CO calls $0.02, 1 fold, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($0.06) K, 9, 3 (3 players)
Hero bets $0.08, BB folds, CO raises to $1 (all in), Hero???

I have 10 guaranteed outs for the nut flush, and 3 much weaker ones for the Ace. So with 10 outs, thatsa 38% chance of hitting my outs for the flush, and with 13 outs its 48% chance of hitting.
Right now I'm getting 1.14/1 = 1.14 to 1
so the pot is offering me $1.14 for every $1 that I put into it.
So to break even I need...
2.14x = 1, x = 1/2.14 = 46.7%
Therefore, if I include my ace outs then it becomes marginally profitable to call. If I don't include my ace outs thinking he hit 2 pair or trips, then it becomes profitable to fold. I didn't have many reads on him at this point, so fold?

Another hand with this same guy I was wondering if I played right
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

UTG+1 ($3.14)
MP1 ($2.82)
MP2 ($6.26)
CO ($1.17)
Button ($8.22)
SB ($2.10)
Hero ($3.37)
UTG ($0.44)

Preflop: Hero is BB with T, 2.
UTG calls $0.02, UTG+1 calls $0.02, MP1 calls $0.02, 2 folds, Button calls $0.02, 1 fold, Hero checks.

Flop: ($0.11) 4, 2, T (5 players)
Hero bets $0.08, UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls $0.08, Button calls $0.08.

Turn: ($0.35) Q (3 players)
Hero bets $0.24, MP1 folds, Button raises to $8.12 (all in), Hero ???

This is the same guy that put me all in on the earlier hand. He seemed to play very Lagg. From his betting, he either hit trips on the flop or has some type of QK type hand? Or maybe T Q? Should I have check raised the flop instead of opening with a bet?
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EzDuzIt
Old 07-12-2007, 11:06 PM #2 (permalink)  
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EzDuzIt
you only have 9 outs to hit a flush....

hand 2: call.
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anthb7210p
Old 07-13-2007, 12:43 AM #3 (permalink)  

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Posts: 14
anthb7210p
crap messed that up then. Do you all do those calculations in the 15 or so secs u have to make the decision? Seems pretty impossible to me...
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Manners
Old 07-13-2007, 09:05 PM #4 (permalink)  

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if your maths poor there's always Texas Calculatem
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EzDuzIt
Old 07-13-2007, 10:19 PM #5 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by anthb7210p
crap messed that up then. Do you all do those calculations in the 15 or so secs u have to make the decision? Seems pretty impossible to me...
no i just know the percentages for hitting things and judge off that and the odds im getting in my head quick.
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