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Top pair + straightdraw vs. raise (NL25)

  
 
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Gritho
Old 05-03-2007, 10:59 PM     Post subject: Top pair + straightdraw vs. raise (NL25) #1 (permalink)  
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MP2 is a 28/5 with 1.5 AF. No special reads for him.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

MP3 ($34.10)
CO ($10.25)
Button ($68.50)
SB ($33.15)
BB ($24.40)
UTG ($8.75)
UTG+1 ($49.20)
Hero ($23.70)
MP2 ($27.15)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with Q, J.
2 folds, Hero raises to $1, MP2 calls $1, MP3 calls $1, 1 fold, Button calls $1, 2 folds.

Flop: ($4.35) Q, T, 9 (4 players)
Hero bets $2.75, MP2 raises to $5.5, MP3 folds, Button folds, Hero raises to $22.7, MP2 calls $17.20.

Turn: ($49.75) 2 (2 players)

River: ($49.75) 3 (2 players)

Final Pot: $49.75

I pushed this without thinking long about. But now I think it was a mistake, since he won't be bluffing and I nearly always will be behind against sets, two pairs or made straights. Two pair is only 60-40 but against a set I have only 25%.
Should I just call? What to do with a blank on the turn? Or would you push, too?
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Miffed22001
Old 05-03-2007, 11:10 PM #2 (permalink)  
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 i actually think its not a horrible spot to c/c and have a look at the action behind.
Also, you have to keep in mind (but not run scared of) that KJo/s is well within these guys ranges.
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zook
Old 05-03-2007, 11:47 PM #3 (permalink)  
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This is a play I make without thinking a lot too. TP with an OESD just looks so good But now that we have the luxury of not having a timer running, let's think about it...

This flop hit a LOT of hands. QQ-99/AQ/KQ/QJ/JT/T9 are not folding to a c-bet here, a range you're behind. So by c-betting you're building a pot, oop, with a hand that's a dog if raised and maybe even if called. Seems like a good argument for not c-betting! (Although in the heat of battle, I'd probably c-bet too.)

So you've c-bet, essentially for information (whether you intended it or not). MP2, a passive player, minraises in a 4-way pot on a scary board. Alarm bells. I put him on QQ/TT/99/KJ/QT/T9. Thankfully he minraised, so he's priced in your draw. So call and re-evaluate turn. Likely c/f if the str8 doesn't come in, unless he gives you a great price again.
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Gritho
Old 05-04-2007, 07:25 AM #4 (permalink)  
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Oh zook, I like your comments a lot
Thanks to miffed, too , for all the nice thoughts.

I now like bet/calling the flop and check/calling even more. Wouldn't mind if it gets checked around, too.

Actually he flipped over QTs ...
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