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Too agro with 17 outs?

  
 
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BigBadBull
Old 11-04-2007, 05:16 AM     Post subject: Too agro with 17 outs? #1 (permalink)  
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Cannot recall exact stats on opponents.The tightest had flp%67. Losest was about 83%
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (8 handed) Converter Tool (Format: FlopTurnRiver

Hero ($4.28)
SB ($5)
BB ($4.27)
UTG ($2.19)
UTG+1 ($1.26)
MP1 ($6.19)
MP2 ($1.64)
CO ($3)

Preflop: Hero is Button with
UTG calls $0.02, UTG+1 calls $0.02, MP1 calls $0.02, 1 fold, CO calls $0.02, Hero raises to $0.06, SB calls $0.05, BB calls $0.04, UTG calls $0.04, UTG+1 calls $0.04, MP1 calls $0.04, CO calls $0.04.

Flop: ($0.42) (7 players)
SB checks, BB bets $0.14, UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls $0.14, CO folds, Hero raises to $0.45, SB folds, BB calls $0.31, MP1 folds.

Turn: ($1.46)
BB checks, Hero bets $1, BB folds.

Final Pot: $1.46

Reason for the bet- half of them are on a flush draw and will let me know weather they made flsh or str8. The guy with trip nines might not want to risk his stack on this board.I saw atleast 1 player out of 7 with a 9 that can call me.However a 9 will probably shove and Ill be priced in to call and have (~45%?) to win.
But overall, I don't know...seems too agressive even for me, I need a second opinion.
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Renton
Old 11-04-2007, 05:56 AM #2 (permalink)  
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 i would probably take the free card, but your play isn't bad.

What was your reasoning behind your bet sizing preflop and on the flop?
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Deanglow
Old 11-04-2007, 05:57 AM #3 (permalink)  
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 If you are going to raise preflop, make it at least .14. I like getting it on the flop, but you did fine. Yeah bet the turn. If your thinking someone won't felt a nine or a jack on this board, you are wrong.
 
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spoonitnow
Old 11-04-2007, 06:06 AM #4 (permalink)  
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 I probably just limp preflop here with so many limpers at 2nl. If you're going to raise preflop it should generally be somewhere in the neighborhood of the pot or 4xbb + 1 bb for each limper.

As played, I raise more on the flop. The pot is $0.70 and it's $0.14 to me so I probably raise to about $1-1.10. The point of raising here is that while our hand is likely a favorite to hit before the river, we want some fold equity as well. A raise to $0.45 won't get the job done in that department. Also, if we get called, since we're in position, we have the option of checking behind on the turn if we miss (aka the free card play).

I'm not sure if I like the turn bet at these stakes, but I'm leaning towards no. It's not terrible, but I just think that most of the time villain has a hand he's going to call down with so we might as well take a free card since we assume to be behind.
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BigBadBull
Old 11-04-2007, 01:12 PM #5 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Renton
i would probably take the free card, but your play isn't bad.

What was your reasoning behind your bet sizing preflop and on the flop?
Free card is quite an option.Although I hate slowing down at stakes where every check is concidered to be great weakness by most of these guys- it only works to my advantage as they will either check fold river if didnt hit their draw or just shove the trips or a made draw. It will depend on the river card weaher I call or fold but that means letting some one else take the lead while I'm on a draw.

Preflop I do not put much money in because i expect to be drawing with TQ so if I do get a great draw I have loads of people with me that I can take for a ride and if I don't-I'd just let it go at these stakes without putting much in the middle.

Definatelly a horrible flop bet.Flop came the best draw I've seen all night and I'm 65%(?) to hit either draw so here I'm actully trying to keep people in the pot by betting small. And even though it was a mistake looking at it now,you have to remember that these people just play their hand at 2nl and will flat most of the time when they are priced in.
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Deanglow
Old 11-04-2007, 02:33 PM #6 (permalink)  
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 This how I play these hands (not saying it's the best way). Also you are about 52% to hit your draw (15 outs twice). You are also favored against any jack since you also have the Q as an over (so you could add another 3outs for 18)

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (8 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver Cards)

Button ($197)
Hero ($204.85)
BB ($46.60)
UTG ($262)
UTG+1 ($148.60)
MP1 ($111.95)
MP2 ($149.35)
CO ($245.45)

Preflop: Hero is SB with , .
2 folds, MP1 calls $2, 3 folds, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($6) , , (3 players)
Hero bets $6, BB calls $6, MP1 raises to $18, Hero raises to $202.85, BB calls $38.60 (All-In), MP1 calls $91.95 (All-In).
 
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BigBadBull
Old 11-04-2007, 09:45 PM #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Also you are about 52% to hit your draw (15 outs twice). You are also favored against any jack since you also have the Q as an over (so you could add another 3outs for 18)
Thank you for ponting that out,I just realized that the 2 K and 8 are couned in already. The way I was thinking:OESD(8)+FLSH(9)=17. Ouch,that would have hurt later in the game if my count was that terrible.
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