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Fnord
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05-03-2006, 01:58 PM
Post subject: There has to be a leak in here somewhere....
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#1 (permalink)
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
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My table image is kinda LAggy, highlights include being caught bluffing with 96 s00ted. For the record, I don't show hands I don't have to.
UTG is loose/tricky and thinks I'm full of shit
MP1 is loose/passive and donkish
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)
CO ($229.45)
Button ($270.48)
SB ($211.60)
BB ($333.30)
UTG ($492.12)
UTG+1 ($54.18)
MP1 ($338.87)
MP2 ($201)
Fnord ($193)
Preflop: Fnord is MP3 with T , T . SB posts a blind of $1.
UTG calls $2, 1 fold, MP1 calls $2, MP2 calls $2, Fnord raises to $12, 4 folds, UTG calls $10, MP1 calls $10, MP2 folds.
Flop: ($41) 7, 4 , 6 (3 players)
UTG bets $25, MP1 calls $25, Fnord calls $25.
Turn: ($116) K (3 players)
UTG checks, MP1 checks, Fnord bets $75, UTG folds, MP1 calls $75.
River: ($266) 5 (2 players)
MP1 bets $80.53, Fnord folds.
Final Pot: $346.53
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Renton
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Atlanta, GA, USA
Posts: 5,991
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I'd raise the flop to like 65, and shutdown thereafter.
Something seems uncool about that turn bet, but I am not good enough to know exactly what.
I think the only bet that makes sense on the turn (assuming I raised the flop) would be to push. However I don't know that that is a good play either.
I also don't think a fold on the flop would be horrible. UTG could (probably doesn't) have a set, and fish is calling a pretty big bet. Your hand rates to be the best, but you are basically inevitably playing for stacks in this hand since the betting increment is so damn huge.
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Renton
I also don't think a fold on the flop would be horrible. UTG could (probably doesn't) have a set, and fish is calling a pretty big bet. Your hand rates to be the best, but you are basically inevitably playing for stacks in this hand since the betting increment is so damn huge.
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This is EXACTLY why I didn't raise the flop. At 3.5:1 with position I couldn't see folding here.
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Renton
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Atlanta, GA, USA
Posts: 5,991
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Fnord
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Renton
I also don't think a fold on the flop would be horrible. UTG could (probably doesn't) have a set, and fish is calling a pretty big bet. Your hand rates to be the best, but you are basically inevitably playing for stacks in this hand since the betting increment is so damn huge.
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This is EXACTLY why I didn't raise the flop. At 3:1 with position I couldn't see folding here. |
Ya but I think after the flop position is irrelevant here. With the pot bloated, you have no way of leveraging people out or defining anyones hand. Plus there are a billion scare cards that could come and make you very unconfidant in TT.
I think a strong flop raise has neutral to positive EV in folding equity alone.
Maybe even push flop? I think UTG has a flush draw and MP1 has a pair and a straight draw.
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martindcx1e
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 3,614
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The turn is most likely going to suck for you. I don't what that means you should do. I just know it 
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dalecooper
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 3,107
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I like calling the flop - you think your hand is best but you don't mind getting more information before really committing. I think a better turn action would be a push... no, really. UTG could easily be betting pocket 8s or 9s. Hard to tell what donk has, but a flush draw, straight draw, pocket pair bigger than sevens, or even a pair to the board are all possible. Neither of them appear to like the king, and you really wouldn't put either of them on too many hands that the king would help. At that point the pot has already ballooned to almost $120 so a push for about $150 isn't bad. It seems like a $75 bet is too weak (almost pricing in a draw, or especially a hand like 88 or 78)... why not just shove in the whole deal?
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dalecooper
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 3,107
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Renton
Maybe even push flop? I think UTG has a flush draw and MP1 has a pair and a straight draw.
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Bear in mind, you can see how they acted on the turn and river, and therefore have as complete of a read as is possible to have. On that flop with nothing but the information Fnord had, specific reads are going to be difficult - and therefore pushing that spot has pretty much unknown EV.
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Fnord
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Moderator
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by dalecooper
On that flop with nothing but the information Fnord had, specific reads are going to be difficult - and therefore pushing that spot has pretty much unknown EV.
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I'm facing 2 hands when I'm either a little ahead, a little behind or smoked. With lots of money behind, the times I'm smoked kill me.
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dalecooper
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2004
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[quote="Fnord"]
Quote:
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Originally Posted by dalecooper
I'm facing 2 hands when I'm either a little ahead, a little behind or smoked. With lots of money behind, the times I'm smoked kill me.
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I agree. I prefer a call there by far. The push is a real grey area for the reasons you specified, and for the fact that even when you're ahead and get called, you're not that far ahead probably - lots of two-way draws going on here. But the turn action seems unlikely to be a setup given previous action & the turn card, so I'd take advantage and close the pot out right there.
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Renton
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Atlanta, GA, USA
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by dalecooper
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Renton
Maybe even push flop? I think UTG has a flush draw and MP1 has a pair and a straight draw.
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Bear in mind, you can see how they acted on the turn and river, and therefore have as complete of a read as is possible to have. |
True, but you at least know that UTG is on a draw. Does he bet a set this hard on an orphan flop in a raised pot?
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Renton
True, but you at least know that UTG is on a draw. Does he bet a set this hard on an orphan flop in a raised pot?
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UTG has a VP$IP of 40%. He gets no credit for a pair in the hole.
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dalecooper
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 3,107
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Renton
True, but you at least know that UTG is on a draw. Does he bet a set this hard on an orphan flop in a raised pot?
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My first reaction to that bet would be he probably has 88 or 99. But there are other considerations here:
1. The bet's not that big - $25 into a $40 pot. Except for the fact that he's betting into the pre-flop raiser, this is a somewhat vague action.
2. He thinks Fnord is LAggy and full of shit. If he had a monster, this would be a great spot to lead out and get paid by the kind of player that he thinks Fnord is.
3. There's a donk acting behind him... double the chance that somebody will call or raise.
On the other hand, he's loose/tricky... so this could easily be just a pair, or just a draw. Still, I'm not crazy about getting into too much hand-defining/pot-committing on the flop. Depending how loose and tricky this guy is, would he get all the money in with a draw? A pair + a draw? And what does the donk do? Scary variables to me... I like taking a slow-down call and reevaluate later in the hand.
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Renton
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Atlanta, GA, USA
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Fnord
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Renton
True, but you at least know that UTG is on a draw. Does he bet a set this hard on an orphan flop in a raised pot?
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UTG has a VP$IP of 40%. He gets no credit for a pair in the hole. |
So basically, in raising this flop, we are playing the odds that MP1 didn't hit a set.
Pretty good odds.
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yorib
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Flush
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Oak Park, IL
Posts: 281
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I'm confused as to why calling the flop is a good idea. As is your hand an 8% chance of improving. MP1 has called two sizeable bets out of position. With the second one having a very high likelihood of being substantially reraise. (i.e. Before the flop you showed tremendous strength, and if you had KK/AA would you reraise to $100 right there?) Doesn't that scream pp/set (or PP OESD)?
Curiously, would you play that hand any different if you had AK (one heart), AA or QQ?
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dalecooper
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 3,107
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by yorib
I'm confused as to why calling the flop is a good idea. As is your hand an 8% chance of improving.
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But it also has a somewhat unquantifiable chance of being the best hand already, and he's getting better than 3:1 on his call. Folding there would be pretty weak/tight in light of what we know about the other two players in the hand.
Quote:
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MP1 has called two sizeable bets out of position. With the second one having a very high likelihood of being substantially reraise. (i.e. Before the flop you showed tremendous strength, and if you had KK/AA would you reraise to $100 right there?)
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MP1 is also a loose/passive donk according to hero. If we take the read at anything like face value, that means he could have a lot of hands. In fact, as the hand was played, it looks very strongly like he called the whole way with an 8, hit his draw, and promptly shoved all in to try to get paid. I get that vibe as much or more than I get the "he-slowplayed-a-monster" vibe. If he actually has a set, his play of this hand is borderline psychotic.
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Miffed22001
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Marry Me Cheryl!!!
Posts: 8,181
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utg1 play is predictable, its prob how id play you, however id have much balance to my game. Half decent player who got outta dodge on the turn.
Mp1 calls the opening bet then check calls the turn and pushes river.
By your flop call if he has a set i think its actually well played, apart from how does he expect you to call the river? Against your likely range he let you put a lot in while behind.
However i think thats far too much credit. He could have 89hearts but i think thats unlikely, surely he'd want to escalate on flop. SO i think he has possibly 55 for a rivered set instead of straight, perhaps A5s or A8s and thinks 1. you cant call the river 2. that he genuinly has the best hand.
Id be interested if calling here is anywhere near ~ev. As played i might call this river. $75 on the turn makes me think he has something made. I guess 88 is a possibility too, same arguement probbly best hand but may improve. That might make more sense considering how he miss-interpretes the info hes given on the flop and turn.
id like to call a lot and see a pair of fives here but i bte he called u down with A8s or something perhaps 88, but i still 88 istoo much credit.
A8s/o
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underminedsk
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Flush
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Reraising you from the button
Posts: 250
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I dislike the flop call. You are entering an out-of-control pot with a hand that is going to look horrible on the river. That being said, its a tough situation. Mucking to the $25 bet is downright weak, but both calling and raising the flop bet put you in a tough spot on the turn and river. The fact this it's going 3-way is very troubelsome as well. You probably have the best hand on the flop, but I'm thinking there is little chance of getting a cheap showdown, espeically with the 2/3rds pot cold call in front of you. I'd say if you have enough confidence to get it all in there with unimproved pocket tens, then thats probably your best move.
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Lodogg
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Straight
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: Stealing your C-bet
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I'd raise the flop for two reasons:
1.) You probably have the best hand and can give terrible odds to a draw.
2.) Information-If someone comes back over the top you can easily fold for a much cheaper price than the turn and river would cost you.
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Lodogg
I'd raise the flop for two reasons:
1.) You probably have the best hand and can give terrible odds to a draw.
2.) Information-If someone comes back over the top you can easily fold for a much cheaper price than the turn and river would cost you.
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Ummm.... no
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Lodogg
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Straight
Join Date: Nov 2005
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Another excellent insightful response from Fnord everyone.
Thanks for sharing your thoughts.
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renegaderob1
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Flush
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Australia
Posts: 311
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Fnord
I'm facing 2 hands when I'm either a little ahead, a little behind or smoked. With lots of money behind, the times I'm smoked kill me.
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lol lodogg; i think what Fnord was trying to say is summed up nicely in the above quote;
If he raises I think he is most likely to get two calls; then what? All of a sudden the pot is huge and a K hits, there is still a flush and a straight draw, and from what Fnord gave us as info it is possible one or both players may have a draw here or the K. Even with one caller, the pot is now so large he is either playing for stacks in a pretty marginal situation (at best I think you're 51% to win here Fnord; that about right?) or folding a very large pot.
I like the call. Not too sure what else could be done on the turn here so I think as played it was probably OK. Tough spot to be in...
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