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stove calculations i dont understand

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rpm

09-15-2009, 06:28 AM Post subject: stove calculations i dont understand

#1 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jul 2009

Location: maaaaaaaaaaate

Posts: 2,051

first of all, sorry, i havent made enough posts to convert and post the hand.

im sure the answer is simple but i cant spot it. scenario came from a 50L hand in which i call unknown 50bb stack's 4bb pf raise from BU with two callers between with Js 9s (the other two callers and i are 100bb deep). flop is 8s Qs 4h. checked to me, i bet close to 3/4 pot, hoping to either take it down or see a free river. villian raises 3x, folded to me and i shove thinking his range is typically overpairs or AQ and being short-stacked, he wanted to c/r to get the BU steal attempt or KQ/JQ bet in the pot and then commit, rather than donking flop and being folded to. he snap calls and shows 88.

i ran the hand through stove, which informed me he was 51-48, slight favourite with 88. so with the dead money in there, and whatever fold equity i might have had, i was happy with my shove. however, changed his hand to QQ in stove and his equity became 81%. considering any set is beat by a straight or flush (which is obviously where im deriving my equity), and any set on that flop has equal chance of a redraw should i hit the turn, why does it make a difference which set he flops. as i have no pairs, i cannot make a bigger full house than him.

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daven

09-15-2009, 06:51 AM Post subject: Re: stove calculations i dont understand

#2 (permalink)

Straight Flush

Join Date: Aug 2007

Location: soaking up ethanol, moving on up

Posts: 5,814

Quote:

Originally Posted by rpm

. however, changed his hand to QQ in stove and his equity became 81%.

maybe you forgot to include the flop cards when you stoved it second time around?

I just ran both stove calcs, and it looks as though you have done them both incorrectly...

Board: 8s Qs 4h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 33.838% 33.84% 00.00% 1005 0.00 { Js9s }
Hand 1: 66.162% 66.16% 00.00% 1965 0.00 { 88 }

---------------------------------------------------------------
Board: 8s Qs 4h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 33.838% 33.84% 00.00% 1005 0.00 { Js9s }
Hand 1: 66.162% 66.16% 00.00% 1965 0.00 { QQ }

-------------------------------------------------------------------
now try giving him AA
Board: 8s Qs 4h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 44.596% 44.60% 00.00% 2649 0.00 { Js9s }
Hand 1: 55.404% 55.40% 00.00% 3291 0.00 { AA }

don't raise with the straight flush bro, nobody ever gonna call that shit
allin, reload, repeat

please read: http://www.philgalfond.com/lets-make-some-changes/

rpm

09-15-2009, 07:10 AM

#3 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jul 2009

Location: maaaaaaaaaaate

Posts: 2,051

i knew the answer was simple. seems neither calculation was taking into account the flop. i typed the flop into stove manually, and didnt put spaces between the cards. thanks. while we're at it, do people think my line is good here? is my estimate of his range reasonable given the c/r or is it usually sets here? i think i see a lot of <100BB stacks taking c/shove lines OOP in multiway pots with tptk or better at 50NL.

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stove calculations i dont understand

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