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Steal turns into nut flush draw - flop & turn play?

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daven

09-06-2008, 05:01 AM Post subject: Steal turns into nut flush draw - flop & turn play?

#1 (permalink)

Straight Flush

Join Date: Aug 2007

Location: soaking up ethanol, moving on up

Posts: 5,814

20 hands on villain and looks all loose passive (30-5) but I'm not happy relying on that big a sample vs playing for stacks.
pre-flop is stealing this all day.
Bet the flop with the nfd? and odds seem fine to call the checkraise. Should I ever be pushing here without reads?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (7 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (Button) ($50)
SB ($30.15)
BB ($74.30)
UTG ($102.30)
MP1 ($51.15)
MP2 ($99.25)
CO ($136.60)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 6

, A

4 folds, Hero raises to $1.75, SB calls $1.50, 1 fold

Flop: ($4) K

, Q

, 2

(2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $2.50, SB raises to $6, Hero calls $3.50

Turn: ($16) A

(3 players)
SB bets $12, easy fold? push is spew?

note stack size here, $12 to get $50ish assuming villain commits to a heart river. I don't expect my ace is an out..

don't raise with the straight flush bro, nobody ever gonna call that shit
allin, reload, repeat

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Fnord

09-06-2008, 05:10 AM

#2 (permalink)

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Posts: 19,336

Fnord is an unknown quantity at this point

I don't think it matters much. I wouldn't fold. I'd probably just shove over on the flop.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

MehFU

09-08-2008, 07:09 PM

#3 (permalink)

3-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Apr 2008

Posts: 101

going on the range that i think he could be doing some of this stuff with, small blind calling range should be relatively tight, but if hes playing off 30-5 it could be around this sort of range,
QQ-TT,ATs+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,ATo+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo

i cant realistically include AA and KK because it wouldnt make sense for him to flat you in the small, although it does happen.

i personally would put him on either a king or a queen or a king high flush draw, mebbe a set of twos.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

5,368 games 0.005 secs 1,073,600 games/sec

Board: Qh 3h Kc As
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.741% 39.29% 01.45% 2109 78.00 { QQ-TT, 22, ATs+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 1: 59.259% 57.81% 01.45% 3103 78.00 { Ah6h }

the questions you have to ask yourself is how often do you think he will lead the river? are you calling down with a flopped ace and a weak kicker in a slightly different hand?
can you put his check raise as a flop resteal? IMO the check raise here is not enough by him to try to shut out the best draw, your heart draw, beacause the implied odds are not withdrawn.
ur good to reshove, flat. but folding a massively disguised hand like this is bad imo.

poker stove brings up this: assuming my ranges are correct.
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

5,368 games 0.005 secs 1,073,600 games/sec

Board: Qh 3h Kc As
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.741% 39.29% 01.45% 2109 78.00 { QQ-TT, 22, ATs+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 1: 59.259% 57.81% 01.45% 3103 78.00 { Ah6h }

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Steal turns into nut flush draw - flop & turn play?

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