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Silly play and trying to do maths

  
 
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Pants_101
Old 06-16-2007, 11:01 PM     Post subject: Silly play and trying to do maths #1 (permalink)  
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The SB is 70/16/0.7 and as I have discovered a calling station. I want to be in pots with him so I call on the button. On the flop I decided to make a rather loose call in the hopes of the runner runner flush because I thought I could win a big bet from him at the end. Afterwards I decided to try and look at the maths of it to see how much I need to win to make it a good play. So this just serves as an example to test some maths basically cos I'm not very good at it.

So I'm 4% to hit my runner runner flush. I need pot odds of 20-1 and I'm getting a bit over 2-1. What would Harrrington do? Anyway I suppose this means I need to win 20X his 0.50 bet or $10. In this case I manage to do it but I've only just exceeded break even. I should have bet $15 on the end, or even pushed all in. Did I work this out ok?

PS I'm not suggesting this is typically a good play!


Party Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25
9 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $10.05
UTG+1: $4.30
MP1: $4.30
MP2: $35.10
MP3: $4.50
CO: $9.20
Hero: $48.02
SB: $42.45
BB: $5.50

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is Button with 4 K
6 folds, Hero calls, SB calls, BB checks.

Flop: 3 A 6 ($0.75, 3 players)
SB bets $0.5, BB folds, Hero calls.

Turn: 8 ($1.75, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks.

River: J ($1.75, 2 players)
SB bets $1.75, Hero raises to $10, SB calls.

Results:
Final pot: $21.75
Must get more aggressive - Tonight we dine in $25NL! rah rah rah! etc
 
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Sheetah
Old 06-16-2007, 11:15 PM #2 (permalink)  
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LOL
NH
this should go in Tales forum
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SHAKE
Old 06-17-2007, 02:35 AM #3 (permalink)  
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umm, hmm, well....

Why does this guy guy check the turn? and raise to 12..
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apunisher
Old 06-17-2007, 03:00 AM #4 (permalink)  
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ummm....its worked this time, but this is really, really, really bad. why dont u just wait until u make tp and then stack the guy???
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bigspenda73
Old 06-17-2007, 05:03 AM #5 (permalink)  
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 shove the river

Im not joking
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overflow
Old 06-17-2007, 06:08 AM #6 (permalink)  
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I love raising ominously dry looking flops when I have multiple backdoor draws, the implied odds are great, either I pick up one or both of the draws I was hoping for on the turn and the flop raise gets me the free card on the river, or I'm reraised or brick the turn, in either scenario losing only the raise I made on the flop. I really like making a habit out of counting my outs to draws on the flop. Like JhTh on a board of Ah4c9d. Most people would bail for a 1/2 to 2/3 pot bet on the flop. Whereas I'm thinking, "If I can play this hand heads up, I have 8 outs to an open ended straight draw, and 8 outs to a flush draw, with 1 out to an open ended straight flush draw and one to a gutshot royal, and 6 outs to a pair that leaves me 5 possible wins" There are 22 cards I can catch on the turn that will probably have me drawing to the winning hand, and if villian has shown a tendancy to not re-raise flop raises, and check in front of the flop raiser on the turn if he only has top pair our reverse implied odds seem pretty good, as we're only investing more money in this pot if we make our hand. Did I mention we get fold equity on our flop raise

Just something to think about, the regulars will probably tear a new sphincter in this theory.
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Pants_101
Old 06-17-2007, 10:56 AM #7 (permalink)  
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Yeah it's bad play against a sane player but this is party at the weekend!


Spender your right I should have pushed it, he had J6 and I reckon he would have called it. I saw him make much worse calls!

I was kinda hoping someone would confirm I do the maths ok. That's why I posted the hand risking ridicule haha Looking back I said I was 4% to hit my flush so needed 20-1 odds but actually it's 25-1 isn't it?
Must get more aggressive - Tonight we dine in $25NL! rah rah rah! etc
 
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Jimmy Mac
Old 06-17-2007, 02:39 PM #8 (permalink)  
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lol.

Definitly push the river. I play pot limit mostly these days, and I miss overbet shoving on fish
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gingerwizard
Old 06-17-2007, 03:36 PM #9 (permalink)  
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 The reason you don't have implieds is that often he bets the turn and you will not be ahead till the river. So you'll mostly have to call 2 bets before seeing if you hit your backdoor. Still nh.
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bigspenda73
Old 06-19-2007, 01:41 AM #10 (permalink)  
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 Pants, you need to know the difference between these type of odds

1. Actual odds
2. Effective odds
3. Implied odds

1. You are getting 2.5:1 on the flop call
2. You are getting 2.5:1 to see the turn, however, your effective odds take into account both the flop/turn calls. This has to be taken into account b/c your hand will not improve until the river.
3. Implied odds. This really depends on the strength of your opponents hand. Against tight players who would only lead this flop with 2pr+ from the SB your implied odds might be great b/c your draw is hidden. However, against a loose opener from the SB (say someone who would lead with J6o) you have very little implied odds as both of your hands would have to improve and he would have to stack off light
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swiggidy
Old 06-19-2007, 03:40 AM #11 (permalink)  
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 @overflow, you're talking about raising with a 50% chance of hitting a draw, which then needs to complete on river. Sure you can likely check behind, but you need a solid read (just like spenda said) that villain will stack off light.

None of this even considers that there is only 3bb in the pot to begin with, which is why you insta-fold on this flop. Battling over small pots, without much of a hand at micro stakes is ------eV.
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overflow
Old 06-19-2007, 04:16 AM #12 (permalink)  
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I don't do it all the time, I pick my spots, in general swiggidy is very very very right, getting creative is more often going to lose you money than it will win you money, at least at smaller stakes.
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overflow
Old 06-19-2007, 04:22 AM #13 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bigspenda73
shove the river

Im not joking
Really? You think if he's calling $10 he's calling $40? That seems like a stretch. $10 looks like a complete steal. $40 looks like "Pay me to look at my nuts" no pun intended. From now on the 160BB shove into the 7BB pot will hence forth be known as the Dirk Diggler.
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mixchange
Old 06-19-2007, 04:27 AM #14 (permalink)  
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i like the river play, just cuz its 10nl doesn't mean villain who is up 3 buyins is donking his stack on river. i like the bet on the river, but please fold flop
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overflow
Old 06-19-2007, 04:39 AM #15 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mixchange
i like the river play, just cuz its 10nl doesn't mean villain who is up 3 buyins is donking his stack on river. i like the bet on the river, but please fold flop
Put the flask back on the shelf mix, this is 25NL... unless there are short buy-in 0.10/0.25 games that I don't know about.
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mixchange
Old 06-19-2007, 05:53 AM #16 (permalink)  
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lol sorry, I admit to drinking the mark tonight, stack sizes so small!
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overflow
Old 06-19-2007, 06:00 AM #17 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mixchange
lol sorry, I admit to drinking the mark tonight, stack sizes so small!
Mmmmmm Burrrrrrrboun.
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Jimmy Mac
Old 06-19-2007, 07:34 PM #18 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by overflow
Quote:
Originally Posted by bigspenda73
shove the river

Im not joking
Really? You think if he's calling $10 he's calling $40?
If he calls $40 more than 1/4 as often than he calls $10 its the better play.
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Pants_101
Old 06-19-2007, 09:08 PM #19 (permalink)  
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I posted the hand as a trick to try to get people to talk about maths, another great success The clue's in the title - silly play. I called the flop just because I was so amazed at how this guy was playing and wanted to see what would happen if I hit my backdoor flush, not as a +ev play. I think I got more comments on this hand than anything else I've posted haha
Must get more aggressive - Tonight we dine in $25NL! rah rah rah! etc
 
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bigspenda73
Old 06-20-2007, 04:11 AM #20 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jimmy Mac
Quote:
Originally Posted by overflow
Quote:
Originally Posted by bigspenda73
shove the river

Im not joking
Really? You think if he's calling $10 he's calling $40?
If he calls $40 more than 1/4 as often than he calls $10 its the better play.
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Pelion
Old 06-20-2007, 12:53 PM #21 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by overflow
I love raising ominously dry looking flops when I have multiple backdoor draws, the implied odds are great, either I pick up one or both of the draws I was hoping for on the turn and the flop raise gets me the free card on the river, or I'm reraised or brick the turn, in either scenario losing only the raise I made on the flop. I really like making a habit out of counting my outs to draws on the flop. Like JhTh on a board of Ah4c9d. Most people would bail for a 1/2 to 2/3 pot bet on the flop. Whereas I'm thinking, "If I can play this hand heads up, I have 8 outs to an open ended straight draw, and 8 outs to a flush draw, with 1 out to an open ended straight flush draw and one to a gutshot royal, and 6 outs to a pair that leaves me 5 possible wins" There are 22 cards I can catch on the turn that will probably have me drawing to the winning hand, and if villian has shown a tendancy to not re-raise flop raises, and check in front of the flop raiser on the turn if he only has top pair our reverse implied odds seem pretty good, as we're only investing more money in this pot if we make our hand. Did I mention we get fold equity on our flop raise

Just something to think about, the regulars will probably tear a new sphincter in this theory.
Thats fine ok for a bluff if you think hes likely to fold and your backdoors are backups but its a pretty big leak if you are just calling to hit your draws unless hes minbetting or the stacks are absolutely huge and hes a complete donkey.
gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.

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overflow
Old 06-20-2007, 04:14 PM #22 (permalink)  
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Yeah that line is designed to be a semi-bluff on the flop which increases your chances of winning the pot right now and as a fallback to get you a free card after the turn, so that if you hit an out that gives you a draw on the turn you've got a better chance of freerolling to hit it on the river, and your hand is disguised as hell because no one's going to think you're raising the flop with a double backdoor draw.
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overflow
Old 06-20-2007, 04:21 PM #23 (permalink)  
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If you've got position in the hand it's usually even better because I'm guessing most villians wouldn't lead the turn after being raised on the flop without 2pair/set.
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Ash256
Old 06-20-2007, 05:26 PM #24 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bigspenda73
shove the river

Im not joking
Mhmmmm bitch



Here's my take:

In a mini-bubble this hand is ok, but it's not worth trying this shit as it can put some bad habits into your psychology which can screw with you in the long run.

Discuss?
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