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sick spot on river

  
 
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KillsAids
Old 11-11-2008, 06:14 AM     Post subject: sick spot on river #1 (permalink)  
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UTG+1 is SQUi5HiiFiSH, a 22/11/2.0 regular, the other is a random dude.

PokerStars Pot-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($72.30)
UTG+1 ($111)
MP1 ($20)
MP2 ($30.85)
MP3 ($67.25)
Hero (CO) ($159.15)
Button ($107.20)
SB ($89)
BB ($111.50)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 7, 7
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $3.50, 2 folds, MP3 calls $3.50, Hero calls $3.50, 2 folds, BB calls $2.50

Flop: ($14.50) 7, Q, 10 (4 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP3 checks, Hero bets $9, BB calls $9, UTG+1 calls $9, 1 fold

Turn: ($41.50) J (3 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero checks

River: ($41.50) Q (3 players)
BB bets $24, UTG+1 raises to $98.50 (All-In)

Hero? What's villain's range?
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jimmy44
Old 11-12-2008, 07:48 AM #2 (permalink)  
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 You need to bet that turn (~$30).
This really seems like quads or a bigger full-house. A Reg would not very often c/rai here with the Nut Flush, furthermore, you're still left to act ...
The turn was so weak from you and BB that it's not easy, but I still think it's a fold as with this line there are a lot more combinations that beat you with villain's line.
Even if in the heat of the moment I might not fold this ...
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elipsesjeff
Old 11-12-2008, 11:40 AM #3 (permalink)  
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 There is no way he is slowplaying a set on this flop multiway, he'd go for checkraise or bet strong. He probably flopped the nut flush and is now getting the rest of his value. I don't know why you would fold here....


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jimmy44
Old 11-12-2008, 12:00 PM #4 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by elipsesjeff
There is no way he is slowplaying a set on this flop multiway, he'd go for checkraise or bet strong. He probably flopped the nut flush and is now getting the rest of his value. I don't know why you would fold here....
The problem is that the only hand that we beat and does this is AKss.
However, villain could also have hands like QJ/QT/TT/JJ/QQ.
We have to call $98.5 for a possible $163 pot (if BB does not call), which we are getting about 1-1.65 oods where we need to beat villain at least about 37-38% of the time ...
I don't think villain has AKss enough ...
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elipsesjeff
Old 11-12-2008, 01:24 PM #5 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jimmy44
Quote:
Originally Posted by elipsesjeff
There is no way he is slowplaying a set on this flop multiway, he'd go for checkraise or bet strong. He probably flopped the nut flush and is now getting the rest of his value. I don't know why you would fold here....
The problem is that the only hand that we beat and does this is AKss.
However, villain could also have hands like QJ/QT/TT/JJ/QQ.
We have to call $98.5 for a possible $163 pot (if BB does not call), which we are getting about 1-1.65 oods where we need to beat villain at least about 37-38% of the time ...
I don't think villain has AKss enough ...
He can have more than AKs here, but its the only hand that makes sense. Squishfish is a spewtard but his EP opening raise does not include QJ or QT, if it had QT in it he'd have played it much faster on flop. He's folding JJ on this flop so really he's only got AKs by the time this river action plays out. Either that or a hand like AsQx, or more specifically AQ in general.

No one has really liked their hand so far so I could easily see him value shoving AQ here especially if he has the As, as the made flush would have played it faster on flop if it wasn't nut flush. Either way, you have a boat here on a flush board multiway. I'm never folding here.


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jimmy44
Old 11-12-2008, 02:21 PM #6 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by elipsesjeff
Quote:
Originally Posted by jimmy44
Quote:
Originally Posted by elipsesjeff
There is no way he is slowplaying a set on this flop multiway, he'd go for checkraise or bet strong. He probably flopped the nut flush and is now getting the rest of his value. I don't know why you would fold here....
The problem is that the only hand that we beat and does this is AKss.
However, villain could also have hands like QJ/QT/TT/JJ/QQ.
We have to call $98.5 for a possible $163 pot (if BB does not call), which we are getting about 1-1.65 oods where we need to beat villain at least about 37-38% of the time ...
I don't think villain has AKss enough ...
He can have more than AKs here, but its the only hand that makes sense. Squishfish is a spewtard but his EP opening raise does not include QJ or QT, if it had QT in it he'd have played it much faster on flop. He's folding JJ on this flop so really he's only got AKs by the time this river action plays out. Either that or a hand like AsQx, or more specifically AQ in general.

No one has really liked their hand so far so I could easily see him value shoving AQ here especially if he has the As, as the made flush would have played it faster on flop if it wasn't nut flush. Either way, you have a boat here on a flush board multiway. I'm never folding here.
I do not play at Stars, so I do not know how Squishfish plays.
I see your point, however, with 2 AF, I don't villain wanting to have avalue with trip Q by the river, with Hero still left to act. You are right, however, that turn was checked. But Hero or BB could have a (badly played) set ...
I'm still not convinced of the call Hero.
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nutsinho
Old 11-12-2008, 02:27 PM #7 (permalink)  
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 pretty sick spot but id fold. Squishi isnt gonna be checking the nut flush on flop w/ initiative ever, nor will he do this with AK w/ a spade. Picturing him Value shoving trips on teh river is extremely lol. He's also not gonna be trying to bluff a random off a hand in a 3way pot. Seems like random has a flush a lot and squishi prob just peeled flop with JsJx.
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wakeup
Old 11-15-2008, 09:32 AM #8 (permalink)  
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nothing makes sense, other than maaaybe JJ.
why wouldnt he cbet any other hands that made anythin by the riverr
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KillsAids
Old 11-15-2008, 10:41 AM #9 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nutsinho
Seems like random has a flush a lot and squishi prob just peeled flop with JsJx.
This. And I couldn't fold after tanking and time banking ;(

But to me it just didn't make sense that he would call with JsJx on the flop. It's a pretty crappy flush draw and the board is extremely ugly to him. Maybe I just invited him in with the smallish bet?
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nutsinho
Old 11-15-2008, 01:19 PM #10 (permalink)  
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spoonitnow
Old 11-15-2008, 02:12 PM #11 (permalink)  
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Quote:
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I thought JsJx as I scrolled down through this thread. It makes me want to trust that little voice in my head more often.
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