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Should I have pushed all-in, after the flopwith QQ?

  
 
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maverickai
Old 08-22-2006, 05:06 PM     Post subject: Should I have pushed all-in, after the flopwith QQ? #1 (permalink)  

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maverickai
I'm 'maverickai'. Game is in pokerroom.com, with blinds of 0.10-0.25.

Seat 1: Mebronny ($25.50 in chips)
Seat 2: maverickai [QS,QH] ($11.85 in chips)
Seat 3: Webcrwlr2 ($36.90 in chips)
Seat 4: POKER.ANGEL ($14.70 in chips)
Seat 5: smirit ($8.15 in chips)
Seat 6: CPStallion ($40.30 in chips)
Seat 7: mojorisn45 ($15.10 in chips)
Seat 8: weelarryr1 ($23.90 in chips)
Seat 9: trinoleyO ($19.80 in chips)
Seat 10: Lazuras ($9.20 in chips)

ANTES/BLINDS
maverickai posts blind ($0.15), Webcrwlr2 posts blind ($0.25).

PRE-FLOP
POKER.ANGEL bets $0.75, smirit folds, CPStallion calls $0.75, mojorisn45 folds, weelarryr1 calls $0.75, trinoleyO folds, Lazuras folds, Mebronny folds, maverickai bets $2, Webcrwlr2 folds, POKER.ANGEL calls $1.40, CPStallion calls $1.40, weelarryr1 folds.

FLOP [board cards JD,2H,4S ]
maverickai bets $9.70 and is all-in, POKER.ANGEL calls $9.70, CPStallion folds.

TURN [board cards JD,2H,4S,4D ]

RIVER [board cards JD,2H,4S,4D,8D ]

SHOWDOWN
maverickai shows [ QS,QH ]
POKER.ANGEL shows [ JS,JC ]
POKER.ANGEL wins $26.35.


My thoughts... I put POKER.ANGEL on a range of hands, espcially overcards like AJ+. There's a very slim chance of AA, KK, cos he's a generally tight player, and there would be significant re-raise if he had such holdings.

As for CPStallion, similar thoughts too.

I pushed all-in, thinking that that would have enough fold equity to make them fold if they hold over cards, or TPTK, so that they dun out draw me. But on hindsight now, since they only called my raise, there is in fact a high chance that one of them held pocket Js.

Any advice here? I realise I am always too rash to go all-in if I had QQ+, and the flop doesn't consist of overcards.
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AHiltz
Old 08-22-2006, 05:18 PM #2 (permalink)  
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My best advice is to buyin full and then this hand plays out differently. With $25 to start you wouldn't be left with such a tough decision on how much to bet.

As is, not much to do. You have overs and the pot is damned near what you have left, so if you cbet about $5 you're commiting yourself and if you check your inviting a bet, so pushing is about all you can do.
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Rondavu
Old 08-22-2006, 05:38 PM     Post subject: Re: Should I have pushed all-in, after the flopwith QQ? #3 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by maverickai
I pushed all-in, thinking that that would have enough fold equity to make them fold if they hold over cards, or TPTK, so that they don't out draw me.
Don't be afraid of being outdrawn. It's ok, really.
It's not what's inside that counts. Have you seen what's inside?
Internal organs. And they're getting uglier by the minute.
 
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Turska
Old 08-23-2006, 06:09 AM #4 (permalink)  
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Turska
Not much to do really. Only way you would have
won this hand maybe is stronger reraise preflop. There
are 3 callers before you so I think 2 dollar reraise is
little weak. I guess 5 dollars could have won this preflop.
JJ is so weak.

As played not much to do. Opponents range here is the
key. If he calls your reraise what does he have. Solid
player has AA,KK,AK,JJ and maybe TT. So only hands
u beat r AK and (TT marginally).

Not many people call reraise with AQ,AJ. But your
preflop raise was too weak I think
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Pelion
Old 08-23-2006, 07:33 AM #5 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Turska
Only way you would have
won this hand maybe is stronger reraise preflop... I guess 5 dollars could have won this preflop.
Win money not pots.
gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.

bigspenda73: But how much did you win?
 
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Halv
Old 08-23-2006, 11:03 AM #6 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pelion
Win money not pots.
Quoted and bolded for truth.

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Turska
Old 08-23-2006, 11:06 AM     Post subject: I prefer winning #7 (permalink)  
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Maybe I am stupid but I'd ratfer win 2 dollars than to lose
10 dollars.

T.
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Halv
Old 08-23-2006, 11:18 AM     Post subject: Re: I prefer winning #8 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Turska
Maybe I am stupid but I'd ratfer win 2 dollars than to lose
10 dollars.

T.
In poker money is made post flop.

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Pelion
Old 08-23-2006, 11:45 AM     Post subject: Re: I prefer winning #9 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Turska
Maybe I am stupid but I'd ratfer win 2 dollars than to lose
10 dollars.

T.
Youre thinking is far too results oriented. Given the stack sizes theres no way you can get away from an overpair here but that doesnt mean you should make them fold preflop.

If the flop had come all low cards you stack JJ here. That will happen more often than hitting a set.

If the flop comes with a Q and a J you stack JJ.

If he has AJ and the flop is J high you stack a J.

If he has AA, KK you get stacked on most flops.

So you see poker is far more complicated than trying to win this pot right away because you somehow manage to see into the future and realise you get outdrawn later in the hand.

Having said that I think the PFR does needs to be bigger, but not so big that everyone folds (although you dont mind terribly if they do). Youd quite like to see 1 caller here and then look to get allin on almost any flop without an A or K.
gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.

bigspenda73: But how much did you win?
 
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maverickai
Old 08-23-2006, 04:49 PM #10 (permalink)  

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maverickai
Thanks. yup, prob I should have raised a bit higher. But it's due to the fact that I wanted callers, and I felt this table had been playing quite tight earlier on.
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Turska
Old 08-24-2006, 07:00 AM #11 (permalink)  
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Well I strongly disagree in this particular situation. Hero
is having only QQ here. Pokerangel has opened with 3xBB
and gets 2 callers. So its already over 2 dollars.

I dont think I would want more caller than 1 here. If u raise
4-5 u will rep a strong hand here. If u get called u know
that u are be beat if flop contains any other face card than
Q or flop is blank.

If the stacks were deep maverickais play would suck out
even more. I dont think going allin cold with QQ is +EV
here.

Thats because u get only called with better hands and
u could have achieved weaker hands to fold preflop.

If mav had AA or KK situation would be quite different.

But maybe Im too weak
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Turska
Old 08-24-2006, 07:16 AM #12 (permalink)  
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Imagine this is 100Nl and both pokerangel and maverick
has full sized stacks.

Pokerangel opens 3 dollars (this tells its a little weak. He
gets 2 callers then Mav raises to 8 dollars. Well its only
5 dollar call 17 pot (excluding preflop). Easy call with JJ,
cause reraise is so weak. Pokerangel would put mav
to AK,AQs, or lower pockets possibly even AJ.

So Pokerangel has clear plan here he calls and plays
strongly if flop is blank or he hits the set. hes getting
better than 1/3 here and odds flop hitting A,K,Q is lower.
So he is getting +EV for his call.

Then u get flop. Mav throws boldly 90 dollars and is allin.
Who would call this? Any set,AA . KK is only hand that could
fold but KK could make this call too quite easily.

I dont think dynamics differ so much. But if he had
reraised preflop to 15 JJ would probably have folded
and if he did get a call (or reraise) he would have known
pretty sure where he stands.
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Halv
Old 08-24-2006, 09:02 AM #13 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Turska
Imagine this is 100Nl and both pokerangel and maverick has full sized stacks.
Making those assumptions, especially the last one, changes the hand very significantly.

Quote:
Then u get flop. Mav throws boldly 90 dollars and is allin.
Who would call this? Any set,AA . KK is only hand that could
fold but KK could make this call too quite easily.
With 90BBs behind you have plenty of options on how to play the hand postflop. This situation is not even remotely similar to having a rougly pot sized stack and an overpair. With a short stack left it pretty much comes down to how and when you stick your stack in. With a large stack you have to play some poker.

Quote:
But if he had reraised preflop to 15 JJ would probably have folded
and if he did get a call (or reraise) he would have known
pretty sure where he stands.
Notice how you moved the "only better hands call"-part from the flop to preflop? If you're going to try and end all action preflop you are probably better off using a short stack ninja tactic.

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Turska
Old 08-24-2006, 11:54 AM     Post subject: Conclusions #14 (permalink)  
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Turska
1.) Always buy-in full
2.) When you re-raise -> raise significantly

After pokerangel bet 3xBB Maverick had 3 options:

1.) Fold (obviusly not)
2. Call (obviously not because he had every reason to assume he had
best hand)
3. Re-raise

He ended up like min-raising and that was wrong decision. No
matter how you are trying to bend this his raise was not enough whether
u know the outcome of the hand or not.

Poker is about information and that 2 dollar raise does not give
enough information in this case.

What is difference between calling and min-raising in this case?
almost nothing...

T.
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Pelion
Old 08-24-2006, 02:18 PM #15 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Turska
Imagine this is 100Nl and both pokerangel and maverick
has full sized stacks.

Pokerangel opens 3 dollars (this tells its a little weak. He
gets 2 callers then Mav raises to 8 dollars. Well its only
5 dollar call 17 pot (excluding preflop). Easy call with JJ,
cause reraise is so weak. Pokerangel would put mav
to AK,AQs, or lower pockets possibly even AJ.

So Pokerangel has clear plan here he calls and plays
strongly if flop is blank or he hits the set. hes getting
better than 1/3 here and odds flop hitting A,K,Q is lower.
So he is getting +EV for his call.

Then u get flop. Mav throws boldly 90 dollars and is allin.
Who would call this? Any set,AA . KK is only hand that could
fold but KK could make this call too quite easily.

I dont think dynamics differ so much. But if he had
reraised preflop to 15 JJ would probably have folded
and if he did get a call (or reraise) he would have known
pretty sure where he stands.
You may as well say. "imaging if we were talking about a totally different hand". The fact is we dont have anything close to a full stack so there are virtually no reverse implied odds at work. Given that, the only relevant question is "how likely is it that we are ahead at this point". Unless angel is only raising 2% of hands its pretty likely we are ahead here and that is the perfect flop for us.
gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.

bigspenda73: But how much did you win?
 
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Halv
Old 08-24-2006, 03:01 PM     Post subject: Re: Conclusions #16 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Turska
He ended up like min-raising and that was wrong decision. No matter how you are trying to bend this his raise was not enough whether u know the outcome of the hand or not.
I agree with this in principal, but there is no need to go crazy either. Make it like 3.50$ and we have a roughly pot sized reraise that will still be called by weaker hands. Going 5$+ would pick up the pot preflop against weaker hands and make stronger hands push or call. Also, we're going to have a hard time getting away from this hand either pre-or postflop with half our stack already in.

Quote:
Poker is about information and that 2 dollar raise does not give
enough information in this case.
Poker is about winning money. What good is your information if you're buying it at too high a price? The cost of your information in this case is not the difference of the bet sizes, but the difference of the amount you win when you're up against worse hands and the amount you lose when you're up against better hands.

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