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Sexy play or dangerous bluff? 50 NL

  
 
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cardsman1992
Old 04-05-2008, 06:31 PM     Post subject: Sexy play or dangerous bluff? 50 NL #1 (permalink)  
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Villan is thegerman339, a 2p2er who is a TAGGY 17/10/5 with an flop AF of 8 over a few hundred hands. He sees me as aggro and a blind stealer, I have raised more liberally from the CO (his BB) than I have the button at this table. He has 3bet my "steal attempts" a couple of times already. Right after I played this hand I wondered how narrow his range really is.....and whether I was playing with fire or not (how +EV is this?). I would figure AA/KK for a preflop push and QQ MIGHT fold to my flop line while getting value from 99/TT/AK and bluffs. If you were villain, would you see my line as AA/KK/set and not much else? I can't see ever folding this hand on that flop with committing almost 1/3 the effective stacks preflop...

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

saw flop|saw showdown

SB ($49)
BB ($79.85)
UTG ($24.75)
UTG+1 ($50)
MP1 ($50.90)
MP2 ($48.40)
MP3 ($6)
Cardsman ($122.90)
Button ($56.30)

Preflop: Cardsman is CO with J, J.
4 folds, Cardsman raises to $2, 2 folds, BB raises to $6.5, Cardsman raises to $22, BB calls $14.

Flop: ($42.75) 8, 2, 3 (3 players)
BB bets $35, Cardsman raises to $102.9 (All-In)......
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Deanglow
Old 04-05-2008, 06:32 PM #2 (permalink)  
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 He has AA/KK 90% and calling or QQ 10% and might fold.
 
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Miffed22001
Old 04-05-2008, 06:46 PM #3 (permalink)  
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 i dont see why you are trying to outplay someone who is going to be ABC at these stakes.
Calling 3bet is easy and from there you need to make a read. You also need to note his 3bet frequency.
if hed done it regularly id call preflop and raise all in
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daven
Old 04-05-2008, 06:58 PM     Post subject: Re: Sexy play or dangerous bluff? 50 NL #4 (permalink)  
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 why 4-bet pre when you'd be folding to a push? You don't want to get pot committed pre with JJ...
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Warpe
Old 04-05-2008, 07:02 PM #5 (permalink)  
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badgers
Old 04-05-2008, 07:06 PM #6 (permalink)  
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I'm amazed if you have any FE at all, he only has $23 after his bet. Also there is absolutely no way I would rule out AA/KK pre as you did.
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Fnord
Old 04-06-2008, 04:23 AM #7 (permalink)  
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Once he donks into us on the flop, I like our chances.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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cardsman1992
Old 04-06-2008, 05:08 AM #8 (permalink)  
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His donk was what made me feel better...didn't think he was folding, but I felt if he had a monster, he would check, expect me to bet and then push over me. I still think he pushes AA/KK pf and he only has those maybe 10% of the time. Sets another 10%. I really think he was trying to push me off the hand more than anything else because I think he views my range as waaaay too wide.

Had he check raised me, I would have had to call, but that is when I would figure myself to be crushed. I really thought I was ahead here after the flop.

I didn't think I had a bit of FE, but for some unknown reason he tanked and folded.
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Current stakes: $100/200NL FR
 
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Fnord
Old 04-06-2008, 08:55 AM #9 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cardsman1992
I didn't think I had a bit of FE.
His line looks like a either a probe bet with a luke-warm hand or bait for a monster. He's certainly a thinking player capable of folding a good hand or playing AKish stuff like then then tanking to make you think he laid down QQish stuff here.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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