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set vs 3 hearts on the flop

  
 
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Beck
Old 11-22-2006, 09:37 PM     Post subject: set vs 3 hearts on the flop #1 (permalink)  
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how often is this a flush or a busted draw?

villian is 26/4

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

UTG+1 ($8.50)
MP1 ($23)
Hero ($68.65)
MP3 ($19)
CO ($18)
Button ($116.25)
SB ($33.60)
BB ($100.15)
UTG ($47.70)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 3, 3. CO posts a blind of $0.50.
3 folds, Hero raises to $1.5, 3 folds, SB calls $1.25, BB calls $1.

Flop: ($5) 9, T, 3 (3 players)
SB checks, BB bets $2.5, Hero raises to $6, SB calls $6, BB folds.

Turn: ($19.50) Q (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks.

River: ($19.50) 5 (2 players)
SB bets $12, Hero ?
-Beck
 
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ElPolando
Old 11-24-2006, 10:31 AM #2 (permalink)  

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ElPolando
Well, it's hard to say, but...

You raise on the flop for two reasons:
1) for value
2) to protect your hand, so...

why do you check the turn!? He might have a flush there (straight is less likely unless he had a straight/flush draw), but you have to bet there. It's just too risky and expensive to give a free card on the turn. If he check-raises you can reevaluate and decide if you're beaten (which is probably true).

River is really read dependant in my opininon. The way you played it, by checking the turn, suggests that you were drawing and missed and you must take that into consideration deciding whether to call or not (again - why would you check the turn?). I don't think he has a flush there after his passive play on the flop. I am more apt to call if he is a good, somewhat tricky player, but generally I am paying him off because I'm a pay off donkey.

More important for me in this hand is to never check that turn!
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martindcx1e
Old 11-24-2006, 11:58 AM #3 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ElPolando
It's just too risky and expensive to give a free card on the turn.
how is it expensive to check the turn?
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Beck
Old 11-24-2006, 01:47 PM #4 (permalink)  
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I checked the turn to control pot size, cause if I bet the turn, he calls and then makes a small bet on the river, most likely I am calling that too. also to see a free card and fill up, maybe taking his stack if he does have the flush. Plus it allows busted draw to bluff on the river.

Here are my options by checking the turn:
1) he has a flush, and I keep the pot small and not loose that much money.
2) he has a flush I fill up and stack him
3) he does not have a flush and misses his draw, bluffs and I win a larger pot
4) 4th heart hits and I fold to any aggression

My options by betting the turn
1) He has a flush and takes more of my money
2) he has no draw and folds
3) he has a draw and calls my turn bet, misses the draw, checks on the river and I check as well or bet and he folds

I think adding this up checking the turn is +EV

Any opinions?
-Beck
 
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Miffed22001
Old 11-24-2006, 02:06 PM #5 (permalink)  
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 if you bet the turn he'll tell you he has a made flush. Also, i dont give free cards to people who will pay for the pleasure of chasing.
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ElPolando
Old 11-24-2006, 06:47 PM #6 (permalink)  

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Quote:
Originally Posted by martindcx1e
Quote:
Originally Posted by ElPolando
It's just too risky and expensive to give a free card on the turn.
how is it expensive to check the turn?
You don't charge him for drawig to a flush, earning less money. Most of the time he is drawing there, so why not set the price?
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martindcx1e
Old 11-24-2006, 07:05 PM #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ElPolando
Quote:
Originally Posted by martindcx1e
Quote:
Originally Posted by ElPolando
It's just too risky and expensive to give a free card on the turn.
how is it expensive to check the turn?
You don't charge him for drawig to a flush, earning less money. Most of the time he is drawing there, so why not set the price?
right so how is checking the turn expensive? you bet $0 when you check so how is that expensive?
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ElPolando
Old 11-24-2006, 07:41 PM #8 (permalink)  

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ElPolando
Actually, it is. Maybe I expressed it the wrong way - by checking the turn you lose no money, but you deprive yourself the opportunity to actually earn money when he is on a draw and is willing to pay.

Flush draw is commonly reckognized as a 'monster draw' at low stakes and the vast majority of those players will not fold it until they see the river card. My conclusion is that when there is an opportunity to earn a bet being ahead, it is expensive not to bet. Uhm... You know what I mean.
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martindcx1e
Old 11-24-2006, 07:46 PM #9 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ElPolando
Actually, it is. Maybe I expressed it the wrong way - by checking the turn you lose no money, but you deprive yourself the opportunity to actually earn money when he is on a draw and is willing to pay.

Flush draw is commonly reckognized as a 'monster draw' at low stakes and the vast majority of those players will not fold it until they see the river card. My conclusion is that when there is an opportunity to earn a bet being ahead, it is expensive not to bet. Uhm... You know what I mean.
sorry just wanted to clarify
i can see a case for betting or checking turn really.
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Beck
Old 11-24-2006, 07:47 PM #10 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Miffed22001
if you bet the turn he'll tell you he has a made flush. Also, i dont give free cards to people who will pay for the pleasure of chasing.
are u sure? what if he just calls, since I am betting for him. How much do I bet 3/4 pot? $15? if he calls does that tell me he might have AT? he might have 9T, he might have Ah X. he might have a flush letting me bet for him. I think betting here tells me nothing, and I am just spewing money.

Any opinions?
-Beck
 
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KoRnholio
Old 11-24-2006, 09:18 PM #11 (permalink)  
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 Gotta bet that turn. With 9TQ now on the board if the river brings an 8 or broadway it could make him a straight to beat your set.
Some days it feels like I've been standing forever, waiting for the bank teller to return so I can cash in all these Sklansky Bucks.
 
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swiggidy
Old 11-24-2006, 10:37 PM #12 (permalink)  
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 Stack size? Villain only starts with $33. The river bet is 1/2 his stack.

You can't bet the turn for information because villain only has $25 behind. Are you betting $12 and folding to a $12 raise, what about 15/10, 10/15?

My standard raise is $2 pre-flop, with someone posting a blind you should definitely raise more than 3xBB.

Your flop raise bloats the pot without giving you any information, I would call that raise and bet the river with AT. Put in a real raise on the flop, you're giving better than 4:1 odds. $7.50 - $12.50. He has $32 behind, so I make it $12. Now he has $20 behind a $25 pot.

The problem I see with this is line is that I'm almost always paying off the flush and I may blow worse hands out of the pot. Although if he pushes the flop you are getting the odds to chase your boat, even if he has the flush every time.

To answer you question, I call
(\__/)
(='.'=)
(")_(")
 
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bbqsquirrel
Old 11-24-2006, 11:38 PM #13 (permalink)  
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SB cold-calling 2 raises on the flop means either:
1) He's got the flush already
2) He's a donk

Without a read I lean towards 1 and fold.
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