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set of tens scary flop - bet the river?

  
 
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The Odds God
Old 02-17-2007, 09:32 PM     Post subject: set of tens scary flop - bet the river? #1 (permalink)  
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PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

CO ($14.30)
Button ($40.40)
SB ($23.95)
BB ($24.80)
UTG ($9.05)
UTG+1 ($21.45)
MP1 ($26.20)
MP2 ($13.50)
Hero ($39.85)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with T, T.
UTG calls $0.25, 3 folds, Hero raises to $1.25, 1 fold, Button calls $1.25, 2 folds, UTG folds.

Flop: ($3.10) 4, T, A (2 players)
Hero bets $2, Button calls $2.

Turn: ($7.10) K (2 players)
Hero bets $5.75, Button calls $5.75.

River: ($18.60) J (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks.

Final Pot: $18.60

Did I miss a bet here? I think I did. Villain might have JJ, a queen, but he might also have just two pair and I think he would call depending on his play so it is not one of those situations where I would be only called when I am beat. He is not smart enought to lay down two pair here. He is 44/8/1 after 100 hands. I decided to check because I thought he might take a stab at the pot if I check because of the speed he was calling with.
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BankItDrew
Old 02-19-2007, 10:34 PM #2 (permalink)  
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 He doesn't have a set because he would have told you before the turn. I'm putting villain on two pair or AQ. I think a river check is good.


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The Odds God
Old 02-20-2007, 04:11 PM #3 (permalink)  
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Did you look at his stats? The guy is a jerk, so the only hand I can't beat right now is JJ or queen. He would pay me 0ff with two pair, I am sure. So if I know he will call with two pair, can I bet?
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BankItDrew
Old 02-20-2007, 08:19 PM #4 (permalink)  
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 If you know he will call with two pair, definitly bet. He may very well have a queen, but I'm never putting them on JJ here because usually we would have found out before the river.


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Fnord
Old 02-20-2007, 08:24 PM #5 (permalink)  
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Easy bet if you can fold to a raise.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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The Odds God
Old 02-20-2007, 09:00 PM #6 (permalink)  
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question no.1: So if I decided to check, would you advise to fold after he bets?
But I understand it is better to bet out. If I check and he bets, I find myself in a very tough situation when I should probably fold because his aggression factor is low. But because of his stupidity, he might think his two pair is good after my check so I might fold the best hand.
Qestion no.2:And you wouldn't even consider calling if I bet and he raises even if his aggression factor was bigger?
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BankItDrew
Old 02-20-2007, 09:15 PM #7 (permalink)  
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 1) I prefer to check call because it induces bluffs, that I call.

2) folding to this raise is much easier than check folding. So if you don't want much more to do with this hand, value bet.. maybe 1/3 - 2/5 of the pot. You want to bet just enough so that a weaker hand will call, but just enough so that a weaker hand won't raise to bluff you out.


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Fnord
Old 02-20-2007, 09:41 PM #8 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BankItDrew
1) I prefer to check call because it induces bluffs, that I call.
Somewhat opponent dependent.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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BankItDrew
Old 02-20-2007, 09:56 PM #9 (permalink)  
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 Give me an example of when a hand is not opponent dependant. few and far between?


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Girlfriend: Are you on the forums doing the werewolves again?

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Fnord
Old 02-20-2007, 10:04 PM #10 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BankItDrew
Give me an example of when a hand is not opponent dependant. few and far between?
Fair enough, but I tend not to check/call guys who call too much. You're missing out too much value by not betting mediumish hands into them and the passive sort are less likely to bet worse hands when checked to.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
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The Odds God
Old 02-21-2007, 02:05 PM #11 (permalink)  
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This guy is very passive so we agree that bet folding is a good idea here, right? He won't raise bluff me out because he is not aggressive enough. So what should be my betting amount given that information? Maybe 1/2 of pot?
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IowaSkinsFan
Old 02-22-2007, 03:06 AM #12 (permalink)  
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 Idk, today I ran bad and I think there's something going on with venus that is changing your luck so I fold.

Sorry I just had to.
Check out the new blog!!!
 
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The Odds God
Old 02-22-2007, 03:09 PM #13 (permalink)  
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I was lucky actually. Venus was good.

Sorry I just had to.
The secret to success in poker is to rig the odds in your favor.
 
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