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set on the river

  
 
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Greedo017
Old 04-06-2005, 12:12 AM     Post subject: set on the river #1 (permalink)  
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 both of us have almost exactly 50 dollar stacks in a .25/.50 blind room, full ring.

Hero is dealt 2h, 2s

Madoek posts .25
hero posts .50
3 folds
Vefo calls for .50
skujman raises for 2.00
2 folds
SB calls for 1.75
hero calls for 1.50
Vefo folds.

Flop 6c, 2c, Js

Madoek checks
hero checks
skujman bets for 4.00
Madoek folds.
hero raises for 12.00
skujman calls 8.00

Turn 6c, 2c, Js, As

Hero bets 18.00
skujman calls 18.00

River 6c, 2c, Js, As, 7c

Hero ?

As a background, people in the room were generally weak and bluffed a lot.
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DoGGz
Old 04-06-2005, 12:25 AM #2 (permalink)  
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You are commited to this pot. It would have been a terrible play for him to draw to a flush here, but is possible. I think it's more likely Ax.

I push here with the rest of my chips
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a500lbgorilla
Old 04-06-2005, 02:19 AM #3 (permalink)  
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Pot the turn making the river an inconsequential AI.

-'rilla

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Precisely.
 
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richardwe
Old 04-06-2005, 03:33 PM #4 (permalink)  

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I believe he is on a flush draw most likely holding Jc givin him the biggest pair on the board after the flop. I dont think I would have called a raise preflop (holding two 2's) btw
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JeffreyGB
Old 04-06-2005, 03:39 PM #5 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by richardwe
I believe he is on a flush draw most likely holding Jc givin him the biggest pair on the board after the flop. I dont think I would have called a raise preflop (holding two 2's) btw
Many of the most profitable players here disagree with you - especially for as little of a raise as it was. I'd have even called a bigger raise (a fact made even more true by the caller ahead of me).
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Greedo017
Old 04-06-2005, 04:18 PM #6 (permalink)  
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 ok. I guess its funny, at the time that I made the 18 dollar bet on the turn, i really wanted a call and didn't want to scare him off, and i intended to push the river regardless. i knew i had him crushed, and i figured he even was probably drawing dead (which he was) and the best way to get his money was to make a reasonable looking bet then get the rest on the river. the flush card i wouldn't have thought twice about, but i had recently been burned twice by backdoor flushes and i was paranoid.

anyway, he had 46o and i won his stack. considering how weak he was, i don't hate my turn bet because i actually thought he was probably drawing dead and he'd call any bet that didn't have a green chip in it. but, i also didn't realize the pot was 30, i should've bumped that bet up to the low 20's.

so its pretty much agreed, turn i should've bet more on the order of 23-30, making the river a no brain push instead of a think for a sec then push?
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Greedo017
Old 04-06-2005, 04:41 PM #7 (permalink)  
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 "I dont think I would have called a raise preflop (holding two 2's) btw"

work the numbers out for yourself.

preflop cost = 2 dollars.
chance of hitting a set = 12% conservatively
chance of winning if you hit a set = >80%ish
reward for winning the hand = 50 dollars
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Element187
Old 04-06-2005, 05:29 PM #8 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JeffreyGB
Quote:
Originally Posted by richardwe
I believe he is on a flush draw most likely holding Jc givin him the biggest pair on the board after the flop. I dont think I would have called a raise preflop (holding two 2's) btw
Many of the most profitable players here disagree with you - especially for as little of a raise as it was. I'd have even called a bigger raise (a fact made even more true by the caller ahead of me).
calling large raises with small pairs preflop in very profitable, depending on the stack size of the person raising preflop... hit a set, put em all in.
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Element187
Old 04-06-2005, 05:31 PM #9 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Greedo017
"I dont think I would have called a raise preflop (holding two 2's) btw"

work the numbers out for yourself.

preflop cost = 2 dollars.
chance of hitting a set = 12% conservatively
chance of winning if you hit a set = >80%ish
reward for winning the hand = 50dollars
calculate the times someone hits their higher set and you lose your stack too to be fair.
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Zangief
Old 04-06-2005, 07:04 PM #10 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Element187
Quote:
Originally Posted by Greedo017
"I dont think I would have called a raise preflop (holding two 2's) btw"

work the numbers out for yourself.

preflop cost = 2 dollars.
chance of hitting a set = 12% conservatively
chance of winning if you hit a set = >80%ish
reward for winning the hand = 50dollars
calculate the times someone hits their higher set and you lose your stack too to be fair.
I think that's what the "chance of winning if you hit a set = >80%ish" is supposed to represent. I'm guessing he gets this from a higher pair being about an 80% favorite to a lower pair pre-flop? Not sure.
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Greedo017
Old 04-07-2005, 01:23 AM #11 (permalink)  
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 i don't know the 80% number for sure, it was just a guess on my part. the odds of you making a set are 20%, and the odds of them making a set are 20%, giving a 4% chance of you being oversetted in any given hand. so, with a 4% chance of being oversetted, you can only really guess at the odds of getting beaten by a straight or flush, but you gotta counter that with the odds of a boat. i think the odds of, on a non-scary board of course, someone beating you with a straight or a flush are pretty small, especially when you add in the boat chances. say another 16% of losses?

either way, i would say losing 20% of the time with a set on an unscary board is the max you'd lose. if you can put them on a pocket pair, rainbow board, its much closer to 90-95.
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