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Set over Set......fold?

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10-16-2005, 06:42 AM Post subject: Set over Set......fold?

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Interesting hand from tonight from my NL100 table. I'd like some good discussion on what I should have done. I don't have the hand history, so bear with me.

UTG's stack: $50
Hero's stack (me) in MP: $98
Button's stack: $155

I am dealt

in MP

UTG calls, Hero (me) calls, Button raises to $5, SB and BB both fold, UTG calls, I call.

Flop is

:Ah:

UTG checks, Hero (me) checks, Button raises $5, UTG raises to $10, Hero (me) raises to $25, Button raises $150 and is all-in, UTG calls and is all-in.

Hero (me) ?????

Okay, so I've got a set here. Checked it around to the button after the flop and he bet (of course), so he could have a hand here (or it could just be a continuation bet). UTG check-raises, and I check-raise on top of that.....then the button pushes his entire stack in the middle. WTF? Then UTG pushes his entire stack in the middle (red flags are going up everywhere at this point).

So WTF? Do I fold bottom set here, or do I call and take my medicine if I'm beat? I've been told to never EVER fold in a set over set situation (the board is A92 rainbow, so I'm not afraid of a flush/straight). But it's pretty obvious that somebody either has 99 or AA in the hole...

What's your play here and why? I will post results once I get a good feel for what everyone thinks.

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spino1i

10-16-2005, 07:03 AM Post subject: Re: Set over Set......fold?

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A most unfortunate situation. I have no idea what id do here. No idea. I dont see any of them playing A9 or A2 or 92. So Id say its likely you are beat.

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KoRnholio

10-16-2005, 07:06 AM

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Reads would help, but I'd have a hard time calling this. With an A92 rainbow board there's really only so many hands people could push with.

If I had to put people on hands.. I'd say Button has AK (I doubt he'd push top set that hard on a completely undangerous board) and UTG has 99. If UTG hadn't called all in before the action got back to you, I would call. But give that two people just went all in, I would fold the bottom set here.

Some days it feels like I've been standing forever, waiting for the bank teller to return so I can cash in all these Sklansky Bucks.

DaNutsInYoEye

10-16-2005, 07:10 AM

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Quote:

But it's pretty obvious that somebody either has 99 or AA in the hole...

Some people say never told fold KK pre-flop, but that's not always correct either. So you've been told never to fold a set in this situation. I'm sure you've also been told to listen to gut feelings. If your reads tell you that you're up against a higher set then fold.

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DaNutsInYoEye

10-16-2005, 07:40 AM

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bencathers

10-16-2005, 07:45 AM

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If UTG didn't go all in, it's an easy call. Button has AK or AX... that's for sure (maybe A9 for two pair, but i doubt it) but I believe UTG has 99 and makes this a fold... but man... this is really hard.... wow... I fold just because it's ummm... wow.... hard... but I fold..... because with two all-ins, rather learn how these guys play and know how to destack them later on.... it's 25 for "information"

Dealer: bencathers has two pair, Aces and Deuces
Dealer: Tbags has two pair, Kings and Jacks
Dealer: Tbags finished the tournament in 256th place
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10-16-2005, 07:56 AM

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Odds are about 1 in 100 that one of them has trips.

There are 6 cards player A could have, (three 9's & three A's). If he has one of those, then he needs 1 of the remaining 2 of that same card.
6/47*2/46=.55%.
Player B has the same odds as well. So double that to 1.1%.
The odds of both having trips is less likely. If player A had trips then Player B would then need 3/45*2/44 for .3%. Combining this would give
.55*.3=0016% or about 1 in 60,000 hands.
Anyway, "odds" are 1 in 100. You're "framework" should be to call here. You are putting in 1/3 of the money for a 99% chance of winning. This will make you money in the long haul. That being said, I think I would fold here.

Jimmy Mac

10-16-2005, 08:12 AM

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That post makes no sense

The question is, given the action, how likely is it that one of the opponents has a higher set? The dream situation is that the button has AK/AQ and utg has A9 - how likely is that? Is the preflop raiser really pushing over a double check raise with one pair? He has to expect a call here.

I think this is a fold, but we need more info - Is this a nine handed game? What's the buttons range for raising here? Is UTG a tight player. Some tight players wont limp anything other than a pocket pair UTG (me included).

The two villians play scares the crap outta me on this flop.

edit: Just noticed that the UTG player only has $50 left, now i'm less sure. Could be in for a side pot if we have the button beaten...... tough decision indeed.

10-16-2005, 08:18 AM

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you're right, my mistake. Confused this for a post i read before were the poster was asking for a "framework" to make a decision independent from reads. Hopefully the math still makes sense. The "odds" that one or the other of the villians has trips is around 1 in 100. And, not that it's important, but the odds that both do are 1 in 60,000.

That being said I would fold here because of um...my read says it's just too scary. One of them must have trips. Fold, find out which one is the slowplayer, and which one is the fish. This is like folding KK to AA. Heads up your oppenent only has AA 1 in 200 or so hands, but you still need to fold to it if you got the read. Same here; the odds are 1 in 100, but the action gives you permission to fold.

Fnord

10-16-2005, 08:56 AM

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Yeah, you're beat. Bottom set no g00t.

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LeFou

10-16-2005, 01:51 PM

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Quote:

Originally Posted by hofalo

The "odds" that one or the other of the villians has trips is around 1 in 100. And, not that it's important, but the odds that both do are 1 in 60,000.

This is nonsense. That might true if everyone plays any two cards and bets in an utterly random way.

Here's one
Flop AAA, pot $10
2 people go all in for $150,000

What are the "odds" that one of them has an A? The math says about 1 in 10. The bets say about 1 in 1

Kiriath

10-16-2005, 05:22 PM

#12 (permalink)

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easy fold. (lol)

bair

10-16-2005, 06:11 PM

#13 (permalink)

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is this 5-handed or what? if its 5-handed, 99 would raise preflop, and A9 would limp-(maybe call a raise) preflop. button raised, probably has AK. u prolly have the best hand

Greedo017

10-16-2005, 07:18 PM

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utg is only a half stack, even if utg has him beat, he will still come out break even just beating the button. and, then there will be the times where he beats utg too and scoops.

i'm still 50/50 on calling, but that's something to think about.

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allLiving

10-16-2005, 07:42 PM

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I call this.

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10-16-2005, 11:32 PM

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This was full ring (9 person). I'll reply to a few comments that caught my eye and I'll show the results of the hand in my next reply.

Quote:

You make a good point. Up until this hand, though, I have never been in a sitaution where I felt like my bottom set wasn't good. Most of my set over set situations have happened heads up, and you're just not going to get away from those. But given the action of the hand, I felt like I *had* to be behind here.

Quote:

Odds are about 1 in 100 that one of them has trips.

Given the action of the hand I was 95% sure that somebody had a higher set than mine. This type of math only works for random situations, like if you plugged this into a computer program. My reads and the action told me that somebody else had a set. As you say there's only a 1% chance that it has actually happened, but I was pretty sure that it happened to me here.

Quote:

That might true if everyone plays any two cards and bets in an utterly random way.

Here's one
Flop AAA, pot $10
2 people go all in for $150,000

What are the "odds" that one of them has an A? The math says about 1 in 10. The bets say about 1 in 1

I like this explanation better on why I am almost (key word there is almost) sure that I am up against a higher set.

Quote:

Yeah, you're beat. Bottom set no g00t.

Fnord is the winner. Bottom set is definitely no good here. But.....

Quote:

utg is only a half stack, even if utg has him beat, he will still come out break even just beating the button. and, then there will be the times where he beats utg too and scoops.

This crossed my mind too. I figured that this could possibly be a break-even play over the long run. Somewhere close to 33% I lose my entire stack, 33% I break even, and 33% I scoop a $24o pot. I'm probably wrong with the percentages there, and over the long-haul this is a losing play, but that was my thinking...

Quote:

I call this.

And I did call. I'm putting in $75 to possibly 1) break even, 2) lose it all, 3) win $240. I'm not sure if my thinking was correct (above), or if the math is correct right there, whether or not I had the odds to call, or what...My read said I was beat, but sometimes you just gotta say, "Fuck it, I'm going the distance with this one."

And I did...Results to follow.

10-16-2005, 11:42 PM

#17 (permalink)

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UTG's stack: $50
Hero's stack (me) in MP: $98
Button's stack: $155

I am dealt

in MP

UTG calls, Hero (me) calls, Button raises to $5, SB and BB both fold, UTG calls, I call.

Flop is

:Ah:

UTG checks, Hero (me) checks, Button raises $5, UTG raises to $10, Hero (me) raises to $25, Button raises $150 and is all-in, UTG calls and is all-in.

Hero (me) CALLS and is all-in

UTG Shows :Ad: :Kh:
Hero (me) Shows

Button Shows :As: :Ac:

Turn dealt

River dealt :Qc:

So my read was right, my underset was no good here. The wrong guy had the set, too, so I couldn't even break even here. I should have lost my entire stack but I sucked out hardcore stylie. WOOT WOOT.

Any other replies to this post or my previous post would be appreciated.

Chicago_Kid

10-16-2005, 11:53 PM

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Lukie

10-19-2005, 04:22 AM

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I know I'm posting after the results were posted, but that is like the nightmare scenario for bottom set. UTG's play fit what 99 would do and OTB's play fit what AA would do. Reading the hand history, I thought you were beat, but personally, I don't know if I could lay it down in your situation. Seeing that 2 on the turn must have made your day.

Demiparadigm

10-19-2005, 05:31 AM

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I just don't see AA pushing the flop here with position.
That is STOOPID!!!11
My original read was 99/A9 for UTG and AK for Button, which makes this an easy call.
Nice hand.

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Greedo017

10-19-2005, 01:34 PM

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10-19-2005, 05:28 PM

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Greedo017

fish

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silverfist

10-19-2005, 08:47 PM

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I'd definitely be folding this one. At least one of them has a higher set than you. You didn't mention pre-flop betting, but that might give you a sense of who has aces. Nines - hard to tell.

I know that Harrington believes anyone who folds a set is an idiot, but it seems to me that when you're facing two all-in bets, it's time to cut your losses on bottom set.

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Lukie

10-19-2005, 09:15 PM

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Demiparadigm

I just don't see AA pushing the flop here with position.
That is STOOPID!!!11
My original read was 99/A9 for UTG and AK for Button, which makes this an easy call.
Nice hand.

I know it's an uncoordinated flop, but he c-bet the nuts, and there was a double check-raise that followed. At least he didn't let his opponents get out of the hand on the turn or river or get let them get a read on him that he was strong, acting weak. Let's put it this way, he got 2 callers to his all-in. All the money went in the pot when he was ahead.

Aces

10-19-2005, 09:26 PM

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Demiparadigm

I just don't see AA pushing the flop here with position.
That is STOOPID!!!11
My original read was 99/A9 for UTG and AK for Button, which makes this an easy call.
Nice hand.

Button makes a weakish flop bet and gets a check/raise and check/reraise. Figures one or both of them will call the AI. Maybe not the best move but he figures one if not both will call.

Gotta figure with about 95% certainty you're up against AA or 99, leaving you one out. Don't know I've ever been in a similar situation, but can't see anything but a fold here(that was before I read the results btw). No way button raises PF and rereraises AI w/A9, and AK is iffy with that action unless he's a maniac. Not worth the price to find out who has the trips( assuming they both don't).

STIdrivr

10-19-2005, 09:49 PM

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wow nice catch

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