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The set or fold phenomenon - call with that small pair?

  
 
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spino1i
Old 01-29-2006, 01:19 AM     Post subject: The set or fold phenomenon - call with that small pair? #1 (permalink)  
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One of the things I see good players taking advantage of is something called the "set-or-fold" phenomenon. This is when someone calls a pre-flop raise with a small pocket pair hoping to hit a set or fold to bet on the flop. This is a poor way to play because you will get bluffed out by overcards making continuation bets, representing the overpair. When you finally do get your set, you may find when you raise the villain he just folds because all he has overs. But how do you know when he's got that high pocket pair or when he has just overcards? It helps to have other players with you to see the flop. The more players that see the flop with the raiser, the more the raiser is kept "honest". It also helps to have position.

An example: The villain checked which basically means he gives up on the pot (theres no way he had any made hand here as he would never give anyone free cards on this draw heavy flop). I then take a stab at it and take it down without problem. I wouldnt have called the pre-flop raise except the small blind did, and might have helped keep the pre-flop raiser honest, saving me a lot of money!

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ Hero (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

SB ($560.80)
Hero ($473.30)
UTG ($357.90)
UTG+1 ($433.50)
MP1 ($419.60)
MP2 ($1369.60)
MP3 ($224.90)
CO ($382.70)
Button ($812.80)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9, 9. SB posts a blind of $2.
UTG raises to $15, 6 folds, SB (poster) calls $13, Hero calls $11.

Flop: ($45) 5, J, T (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG checks.

Turn: ($45) 6 (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $30, UTG folds, SB folds.

Final Pot: $75

Results in white below:
No showdown. Hero wins $75.
BR now: $106900
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outphase
Old 01-29-2006, 07:24 AM #2 (permalink)  
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Now the big question lies in the hand you posted is what would you do if UTG raised the river. Fishy AA/KK play this way to "sucker" you out of more money
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Originally Posted by lambchopdc
Lets stop talking ABC poker and move on to D, E, and F.
 
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DaNutsInYoEye
Old 01-29-2006, 08:12 AM #3 (permalink)  
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Good point. The so-called "No Set, No Bet" line is applicable primarily for the lower limits. It's simple and effective because the decisions for the player with the small PP are easy. It doesn't get you involved in difficult situations. You're also usually dealing with opponents that have a hard time laying down an overpair. The times you miss are more than compensated by the times when you can stack them.

As you move up in limits the players become more sophisticated, thus so does the way you play against them. Calling raises with small PP as you move up in limits becomes less profitable or even unprofitable unless you're able to play for more than just set value. This obviously requires more experience and the ability to read your opponents well.

I'm sure people that play at the higher levels are of this. For people that are playing at lower limits though, I think it's a good general rule until they become more comfortable with their play.
TheXianti: (Triptanes) why are you not a thinking person?
 
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Blinky
Old 01-29-2006, 08:42 AM #4 (permalink)  
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Spin - thanks for this post. It's something that I'm trying to learn (after all 99 is a pretty decent hand - just playing it for set value seems a waste).

However, you indicate that you would fold it preflop if it was just down to you on the blind (ie, sB folded). Is this because of the c-bet phenomenon?

Thanks!
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We will not support your pocket pair aggression.
 
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Irisheyes
Old 01-29-2006, 07:12 PM #5 (permalink)  
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Whay kinda flops are you playing back at a suspected c-bet here?
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