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Set on flop vs. bet and raise in front of me....

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djzcko

10-18-2006, 09:31 PM Post subject: Set on flop vs. bet and raise in front of me....

#1 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Jun 2005

Posts: 285

No reads on villain (MP2) other than he was 33/4 after only 27 hands. I consider this too small a sample size to draw any conclusions but....what should I have done? I took every second they gave me to make this decision...

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No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
9 players
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Stack sizes:
UTG: $49.50
UTG+1: $50.10
MP1: $97.00
MP2: $146.70
MP3: $121.10
HERO: $104.90
Button: $166.50
SB: $115.25
BB: $98.00

Pre-flop: (9 players) HERO is CO with 3

2 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 folds, HERO calls, Button calls, SB folds, BB checks.

Flop: 3

($5.5, 5 players)
BB checks, MP1 bets $5, MP2 raises to $20, HERO ?

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Fnord

10-18-2006, 09:35 PM

#2 (permalink)

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Fnord is an unknown quantity at this point

All-in.

Anything you do here besides fold signals extreme strength anyway.

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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

TerryToma

10-19-2006, 05:22 AM

#3 (permalink)

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pushola.

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djzcko

10-19-2006, 03:04 PM

#4 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Jun 2005

Posts: 285

Well....like I said in my original post, I thought a long time before making my decision. Folding a flopped set is REALLY tough and I've only done it one other time (which turned out to be the correct read). My thought process was as follows:

1. MP2 was the guy I was worried about. He did not raise insta-allin. Insta-allin usually means flush draw, str8 draw or TPTK.
2. A healthy 5x raise usually indicates strength, especially when the board has a clear draw.
3. He likely has a set and is trying to take away pot odds for the flush draw. As such, he probably has 77 and might have 99.
4. I only have $1 invested in the pot.
5. I bit my lip and folded.

His flop bet was called but his turn bet was not. Lucky for me, MP2 showed his cards.....he showed 99 for top set. Phew!

Lesson learned:

1. If he had raised his 99 pf, he would have stacked me. I would have put him on a wider range of cards and would have taken him allin with the thought that he likely had an overpair (AA , KK or QQ).
2. Trust your instincts. I had no reads on this guy but it sure smelled like a set to me.

drmcboy

10-19-2006, 03:27 PM

#5 (permalink)

DrButtInski
Administrator

Join Date: Aug 2004

Posts: 9,602

I like how you say

Quote:

I consider this too small a sample size to draw any conclusions

and

Quote:

No reads on villain

And then you fold bottom set on the super draw board.

but hey, you were right, must be the best play.

djzcko

10-19-2006, 03:58 PM

#6 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Jun 2005

Posts: 285

Quote:

Originally Posted by drmcboy

I like how you say

Quote:

I consider this too small a sample size to draw any conclusions

and

Quote:

No reads on villain

And then you fold bottom set on the super draw board.

but hey, you were right, must be the best play.

Sure, I didn't have any reads on villain which meant I had no idea how he would play top set. So, I defaulted to how the "average" good player would play a set on a draw heavy board and went with it. If I knew anything solid about villain, I would have probably made a different play.

Fnord

10-19-2006, 05:00 PM

#7 (permalink)

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OMG! This thread went from suck to blow!

20,790 games 0.010 secs 2,079,000 games/sec

Board: 3d 7c 9c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 62.4242 % 62.42% 00.00% { 3h3s }
Hand 2: 37.5758 % 37.58% 00.00% { JJ-99, 77, 97s }

...and I haven't even figured in draws or deep limped QQ+.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

NLHE lahooozaher

10-19-2006, 05:38 PM

#8 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Jan 2006

Posts: 916

Quote:

Originally Posted by djzcko

Lesson learned:
I made the right decision this time but over the long run is a bad decision.

FYP

Halv

10-19-2006, 05:49 PM

#9 (permalink)

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Join Date: Aug 2005

Location: No hindsight for the blind.

Posts: 1,842

Quote:

Originally Posted by drmcboy

I like how you say

Quote:

I consider this too small a sample size to draw any conclusions

and

Quote:

No reads on villain

And then you fold bottom set on the super draw board.

QFT

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Margin Of Error

10-19-2006, 08:51 PM

#10 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: May 2006

Posts: 254

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Fnord

All-in.

Anything you do here besides fold signals extreme strength anyway.

Agreed, you'd have to be crazy to fold this hand in a limped pf pot. Calling and letting them see another card is bad too, this is a clear push.

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And I know what ladies like

phantom_lord

10-20-2006, 02:57 PM

#11 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Oct 2006

Location: Dublin

Posts: 349

I'd probably fold in this spot in a raised pot, but limped I'd probably push.

HotRods

10-20-2006, 10:21 PM

#12 (permalink)

Join Date: Oct 2006

Posts: 4

Good fold, wish I had the discipline to do that. About 6 months ago I had 55, flop came 2 5 9, 3 handed, we all went all in. someone turned over 22 and the other 99. OUCH

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Set on flop vs. bet and raise in front of me....

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